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John Bolton and rumors of war: Is it all a calculated bluff?

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John Bolton and rumors of war Why there will be no war with Iran

Sometimes the only way to prevent a war is to step right up to the brink of it with weapons pointed in the right direction. It happened with the Cuban Missile Crisis. Some would argue it happened when Alexander Haig lied to the world about being “in control” of the White House following an assassination attempt on President Reagan. It’s a perpetual state of existence for Israel. And today, we may be seeing the United States backing down Iran after receiving intelligence that they intended to attack.

I’ve speculated about the seemingly conspicuous chain of events that have put a nation-pounding level of a U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf and throughout the Centcom AOR. The defection of Brigadier General Ali Nasiri from Iran’s intelligence branch brought a treasure trove of military intelligence our way, prompting me to believe Israel was considering taking out Iran’s nuclear program while the U.S. military acted as cover against the inevitable counterstrike.

That may still be the case, but it’s also possible they believe their window of opportunity has closed since Iran has certainly beefed up defenses around their facilities and moved what they could to new locations following Nasiri’s defection. Then again, perhaps that was never on the table and we can take at face value that the intelligence told us Iran was planning attacks through their proxies.

But other pieces of information, such as rumors that the U.S. was considering sending over 100,000 troops to the region and the attacks allegedly prompted by Iran against Saudi pipelines and oil tankers, makes it seem likely the United States knows Iran’s plans and are sending a clear message: “Don’t even think about it.”

This is where National Security Adviser John Bolton comes in handy. It’s why his name has been plastered all over news reports across the globe. It’s why he was the one who sent out the initial release about sending the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to the Persian Gulf in the first place. He’s been calling for the United States to attack Iran for the better part of two decades. If you’re going to carry a big stick against Iran, Bolton’s the guy you want holding it if you want the message delivered.

Some historians have speculated Secretary of State Alexander Haig intentionally misled the world about his “control” of the White House to send a clear message to the Soviet Union. It’s known that after Reagan was shot, Soviet military leadership met to consider a preemptive strike. In the confusion of the U.S. Commander in Chief being shot, it may have been possible for the Soviets to take down their enemy once and for all without mutually assured destruction, at least that’s what they considered as a possibility.

Haig was a retired four-star general and former NATO Supreme Commander where he built a reputation of being a hawk against the Warsaw Pact nations. If there was anyone America needed to go on worldwide television and declare he was in charge, it was Haig. The Soviets wouldn’t doubt his resolve if he had temporary control over American nuclear capabilities.

All of this is rumor and speculation. If it’s true, that’s the sort of information that would never be revealed. If it’s not true, then it was a blessing nonetheless.

Bolton could be the modern day version of Haig. If Iran (and apparently the rest of the world) believes President Trump is taking Bolton’s advice, they would have reason for concern. There is no doubt any attacks, even by their proxies, would lead to a massive counterstrike by the United States directly against Iran’s military. With the firepower that’s currently deployed to Iran, we could cripple their military in a matter of weeks without sending in a single ground troop. Bombers, five ships loaded with cruise missiles, and an aircraft carrier could devastate a nation the size of Iran.

By no means should we not be worried. As with everything surrounding Iranian-American tensions these days, all we have access to is speculation and saber rattling. War may very well be on the near horizon. We cannot let our guard down for an instance.

John Bolton may just be the perfect guy to scare Iran into backing down on whatever plans we learned of from their defector. I pray this is the case. If either nation is really planning on waging war, God help us all.

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Culture and Religion

Two weeks after Benghazi attack, Ilhan Omar Tweeted ‘Allahu Akbar’

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Two weeks after Benghazi attack Ilhan Omar Tweeted Allahu Akbar

This is old news, of course, but bears repeating at this time. Representative Ilhan Omar has been doing everything she can over the last couple of weeks to paint herself as the victim of bigotry and someone who loves our country. And while there’s definitely some substance to the notion that crowds of Republicans shouldn’t be chanting “send her back,” it’s also understandable why so many Americans are opposed to her presence on Capitol Hill.

Even if we dismiss reports that she married her brother, called for CBP to be eliminated, said this is “not going to be the country of white people,” referred to 9/11 as “some people did something,” and is regularly praised by former KKK leader David Duke, it’s difficult to dismiss her reaction to the Benghazi attacks that took the lives of four American heroes in 2012.

I’m not going to dignify her Tweet with an opinion. She’s the one who needs to explain it. But despite her celebration, life isn’t good for the four men who lost there’s in Benghazi. Remember this, folks, as Democrats embrace her wholeheartedly.

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Foreign Affairs

Iran has seized a British tanker

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Evidence points to Iran seizing British tanker

Update 2: They may have captured a second British tanker.

Update 1: Iran has confirmed it seized the tanker.

Original Story:

A British oil tanker traveling through the Strait of Hormuz to Saudi Arabia has made some strange maneuvers, causing speculation that it has been seized by Iran.

The tanker, Stena Impero, veered off course according to positioning trackers and is now heading towards the Iranian island of Qeshm which has a substantial Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) base. British authorities are seeking answers.

The Islamic republic has threatened retaliation for the British seizure of an Iranian tanker heading towards Syria, which would break an EU sanction. Five Iranian attack vessels confronted a British tanker last week but quickly retreated when the Royal Navy frigate HMS Montrose closed in.

Iran has long claimed sovereignty over the international waters of the Strait of Hormuz. They attempted to stage bombings of two oil tankers last month and four in May in hopes of being able to act as defenders of the Strait, but U.S. video of the second round of bombings caught an Iranian ship removing an unexploded mine from the haul. With that potential bargaining chip off the table, it appears they’re trying to work their way to the negotiating table by force.

A collapsing economy is forcing Iran to make aggressive moves. This is standard operating procedure for the desperate. An international military response may be in order to abate further acts of terrorism by Iran.

This story is developing and will be updated.

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Foreign Affairs

Is war with Iran inevitable?

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Is war with Iran inevitable

Aggressive actions have become commonplace between Iran and the United States over the last two months. The U.S. sent the powerful Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a bomber squadron to the region following the defection and intelligence cache delivery by former Iranian Brigadier General Ali Nasiri. Since then, Iran has been bombing tankers, shooting down American drones, and attempting to seize a British Tanker.

Today, the escalation continued as Iran admitted to capturing at least one foreign oil tanker. Then, the United States sent the USS Boxer, loaded with 2000 Marines, into the Persian Gulf where it shot down an Iranian drone that came within 1000 yards of the ship.

Is war inevitable?

No. There is still a very good chance President Trump will not risk reelection by engaging in another unpopular Middle East war. There are those who think Iran will push it too far, and that may be the case, but their goal would be to provoke attack, not war. It behooves them to get hit by the United States so they can play the victim card in the international arena. This is why they’ll poke, prod, annoy, and continue to be aggressive without going so far as to make war warranted.

An attack by the west is the best thing Iran can hope to happen at this point. Their economy is crumbling. Their terror and military proxies are hurting because of the dried up funds no longer coming in from Tehran. They can’t seem to sneak an oil tanker around Africa to Syria, one of the few places willing to disregard U.S. sanctions against Iran. So they’re left with either giving up their nuclear weapons ambitions altogether or provoking a war without being clearly seen as the aggressors.

Even though I do not believe war is inevitable, I don’t see a way to completely avoid military action. Iran won’t stop until they’ve forced an attack against them.

The Middle East has always been a volatile place. With Iran doing everything they can to appear like the victims to the international community while still seeming strong internally, strikes may be inevitable but war is not.

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