Update 3: With more forces headed to the region, it appears more likely Israel may use the information received from Ali Nasiri to take out Iran’s nuclear program.
Update 2: The Twitter account that posted about this initially has been suspended.
Update 1: Ali Nasiri intelligence could help U.S. and Israel take down Iran’s nuclear program.
Yesterday, National Security Adviser John Bolton announced the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a bomber task force. It caught many by surprise as it indicated they were sending a “clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force.” Until the release, there were no indications that an Iranian attack was imminent.
BREAKING: Statement from the National Security Advisor John Bolton: pic.twitter.com/sGm0NYOgbe
— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) May 6, 2019
Except, perhaps there were indications and nobody put the pieces together.
On April 23rd, a huge story went mostly unnoticed as former Iranian Brigadier General Ali Nasiri from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) allegedly defected to the United States through an embassy in the region. He had with him a treasure trove of documents related to Iranian military and intelligence plans.
Nasiri’s fleeing from Iran has had an extremely negative impact among the hierarchy under his command. On April 19, the IRGC-associated Fars news agency referred to the fate of Nasiri without any further explanation.
“Under an order issued by Mohammad Ali Jafari, the [then] Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander-in-chief, Brigadier General Fat’ollah Jamiri has been appointed as commander of the IRGC Counterintelligence Organization.” This report made no mentioning of Nasiri.
Though neither the Iranians nor the Americans have officially confirmed the defection, events that followed an April 11 meeting in which Nasiri reportedly came to blows with Hossein Taeb, head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization, seem to support the claim. Nasiri reportedly left the meeting prematurely and then did not show up to work. Soon after it was reported he may have fled the country to another Persian state to claim asylum with the United States.
Iran confirmed that Nasiri was no longer in charge of his intelligence unit, replaced by Brigadier General Fathollah Jomeiri.
There have been several other shakeups in the regime since then. With Bolton’s announcement, all the circumstantial evidence seems to point to a likelihood that Iran has big plans to attack Israel, the United States, or both. While it’s unlikely they would attempt direct attacks, they could use proxies to hit Israel (some would say they already have with this weekend’s rocket attacks), terrorists in the United States, or ships to block the Strait of Hormuz.
The timing also seems to jibe with this theory. The United States continues to tighten restrictions to suffocate Iran’s crumbling economy. As Arutz Sheva speculated shortly after the alleged defection, Iran may be ready for war.
Iran reacted furiously to the new American measure and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz a narrow waterway in the Persian Gulf where 18 million barrels of oil pass through each day.
This accounts for 30 percent of the world’s oil supply and a closure of the waterway could result in a worldwide economic crisis since the price of Brent crude oil is already at a six-months high.
In reaction to the Iranian threats US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook assured the public that the US military will keep the waterway open at all costs.
“The US military will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, that’s partly to ensure protection of the global commons so that it can be safe for commercial and non-commercial traffic,” Hook said during a press conference.
There isn’t much chatter about all of this on standard channels, but a Twitter user going by the handle “RamsesGoatII” gave a warning in a thread that rightly notes how significant the United States’ presence has grown to with the addition of the strike force as well as the importance of staying diligent at home, whether in the United States or Israel.
Whatever is happening with Iran, this doesn’t appear to be standard saber rattling. A high-ranking intelligence officer for Iran may have spilled the beans on something huge planned, huge enough to put us in a wartime posture. Stay frosty.
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