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Republicans’ poll numbers prove October momentum



Republicans poll numbers prove October momentum

Polling is one of many metrics that can be used to predict a race. Having already analyzed the financial commitment of each party in the 14 battleground Senate races in last week’s article, this week, poll numbers will be examined to predict the outcome of the Midterm Elections. In addition to the 14 senate races I have been covering, House seats and gubernatorial races will also be mentioned in this week’s election coverage. For clarity of sources, I am using the polling documented in Real Clear Politics.

Senate Highlights

At the end of September, the Senate map of Real Clear Politics showed a Senate with 47 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 9 toss ups. October concluded with the Republicans having 50, Democrats having 44 and the remaining 6 seats as tossups. What changed? North Dakota, Texas, and Tennessee were all changed to Republican. The Democrats, in that same period of time, have gained nothing in terms of polling. According to RCP, the GOP holds a majority in the Senate with Vice President Mike Pence to break a partisan tie.

A look at the toss ups shows an even grimmer picture for the Senate hopes of the Blue Wave. In Missouri, polling has Josh Hawley ahead of Claire McCaskill (Hawley+2.0). In Florida, Bill Nelson has an uncomfortable +2.6 point lead. In Indiana, Steve Braun has edged a +.6 advantage, the most recent polls in his favor. Jon Tester’s consistent lead in Montana polls has yet to see him marked as blue. The Montana RCP is currently Tester +4.5. Months ago, Arizona was going in favor of Kyrsten Sinema. In October, things changed. Martha McSally has held on to a growing +.7 RCP spread. Lastly, Nevada gives no good news to Democrats. Jackie Rosen had good poll numbers in September. In October, Dean Heller holds a narrow +1.7 advantage because of strong polling in October. The no tossups map has the Republicans at 54 seats and the Democrats at 46, a GOP net gain of 3. Of the two toss ups that point to narrow Democrat victories, Montana provides the only minor comfort. Rick Scott outperformed his RCP average in 2014 to win the gubernatorial race. In other interesting developments, the most recent poll has Bob Hugin within five.

House Highlights

September concluded with a breakdown in the House with Democrats 206, Republicans 189, and 40 tossups. In October, these tossups have swung in favor of the Republicans. The current House RCP is Democrats 205, Republicans 200, and and 30 tossups. The Republicans have a lot more ground to lose in the House. The overwhelming majority of tossups are red seats. Yet the momentum is clearly in favor of Republicans who look as though they will narrowly hold on to the House of Representatives.

Gubernatorial Highlights

Gubernatorial polling is the source of the least amount of change. The Republicans have lost 1 seat while the Democrats have gained nothing in terms of polling in October. But here the Blue Wave can find some solace. Andrew Gillum, despite a corruption scandal, has outpolled DeSantis. John Kasich’s lack of popularity is favoring Democrats in Ohio. Scott Walker is in trouble in Wisconsin. Going by RCP, the Democrats will gain 7 gubernatorial seats in the midterms.

Final Thoughts

The momentum through measurement of polling shows Republicans gains in the month of October. Not only is the success of a Blue Wave truly impossible with the impossibility of securing the Senate, but the Republicans holding onto the House is entirely within reach as well. The Democrats may see success in gubernatorial races but the national rhetoric of the Democrats would not call that a successful midterm except in order to prevent admitting defeat. At best polling shows that the Republicans narrowly lose the House and a few Governor’s seats. But the gains in the Senate offset these losses, especially once a new Supreme Court vacancy appears. The GOP can call the midterms a win even with such meager result. Lastly, take polls with a grain of salt. They can’t predict which side shows up, especially in a case like Bob Menendez who is very unpopular, according to polls. And they also had Hillary winning in 2016.

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When Biden enters the race, he’ll lurch left, proving the Democratic Party is lost forever



When Biden enters the race hell lurch left proving the Democratic Party is lost forever

I have a confession to make. I like Joe Biden. No, I don’t like his politics. But, unlike Bernie, Beto, Kamala, or any of those who are officially in the Democratic fray, Joe is the only one I could see myself having a beer with and talking about things… as long as none of it has to do with politics.

The other thing about Biden over the decades is that he seems like one of the “common sense” moderate Democrats that once filled the halls of Capitol Hill during the Reagan-Bush-Clinton years. He’s not a radical progressive espousing socialistic principles or calling for us to abolish planes and cows.

Unfortunately, that’s going to change. When he enters the Presidential race, he won’t be the moderate Democrat that he’s been in the past. He’s going to let out his hyper-leftist core in an effort to match the lunacy of Bernie and Co.

In fact, in his recent semi-run-announcement, he even declared something that tipped his hand not only to the fact he’s strongly considering running but that he’ll paint himself as a radical progressive.

“I know I get criticized. I’m told I get criticized by the new left,” Biden said told the audience at the First State Democratic Dinner. “I have the most progressive record of anybody running for the — anybody who would run.”

The “news” in all this was pronounced that he gaffed his way into admitting he was running. But the actual story is in how he’s going to run. Just like every major candidate, he’s going to embrace the hyper-leftists that control the way primaries work now. They came close to controlling the narrative in 2016, but the Democratic Establishment stole their thunder and ruined their candidate. That won’t happen this time. Whoever gets nominated is going to draw from the depths of the most leftist perspectives imaginable within the Democratic Party. They’re going full-blown socialist, and even a former moderate like Biden can read that particular writing on the wall.

The problem with making bold leftist promises to win primaries is that the inevitable shift to the center following the nomination can only go so far. It won’t be like Hillary Clinton who didn’t have to run too far to the left to win the nomination. In 2020, the winner will have to be as left as they come, which is why every candidate is currently in the process of trying to out-stupid one another.

Any hopes that Biden might be the moderate exception can be tossed out the window. He’s going to be joining his comrades in their communistic ways. He may not like it deep down, but then again, he might find that he loves it. There’s really no way to know what’s actually solid and what’s fluid in the hearts and minds of modern politicians.

All of this can be broken down to one conclusion: The Democratic Party is lost. They’ve succumbed to the radical nature of their base and there’s no way to go back in the near future. In fact, the only thing that might be able to save the party is if they actually get power, install their radical ideas, and destroy the country. Then, many will realize how wrong they were, but at that point it will be too late.

We need now, more than ever, to spread the conservative message to the masses. We regularly ask for financial help since we’re a crowdfunded news outlet. I’m asking again right now.

Just as we must fight the leftward lurch of Republicans, we must also destroy the hyper-leftist mentality that’s taking over the Democratic Party. They’ll annihilate the nation if they’re allowed.

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Steve Deace: Media isn’t biased. It’s opposition media.



Steve Deace Media isnt biased Its opposition media

If you haven’t heard that a Reuters reporter held damaging information about Beto O’Rourke during his Senate campaign against Ted Cruz (R-TX), only to reveal it after he announced his run for president, you’re not alone. It wasn’t given much coverage by mainstream media since it points out the opposing nature of the media against anyone and anything conservative.

That’s the state of the media in 2019. It’s been like this for a while.

Conservative commentator Steve Deace Tweeted the truth about the media as demonstrated by their willingness to cover up for O’Rourke:

While most on the right seem to believe the President is the victim of a media bent on opposing him, it’s actually much bigger than that. Had Trump not won the GOP nomination, Ted Cruz or whoever emerged to beat Hillary Clinton would be facing the same opposition from the press. They may be more bold as a result of Trump’s win, but their ideology hasn’t changed. They don’t just oppose Trump. They don’t just oppose Republicans. They oppose anything that seems to be right-leaning.

The media has emerged as the communications and propaganda department for the left. Keep in mind that it’s not just Democrats they support. Their collective ideology is opposed to anything that smells conservative. This is just another reasons we ask our readers to support us any way they can. Being crowdfunded means we have the ideological independence to fight against those in the media who operate in opposition to conservatism. We simply need more revenue in order to get the message out to more people.

The biggest challenge the media has had since President Trump’s election is holding back their bias. But there’s a difference between pretending to be unbiased in reporting and outright covering up for the Democrats in an effort to help them in their election chances. The left is now claiming the coverup was all about saving juicy snippets for a book, but let’s get real here. The writer was well aware that news about O’Rourke breaking the law as part of a hacker group would have not only hurt his chances in his campaign against Ted Cruz. It could have ruined his chances of being propped up as a Democratic candidate.

This wasn’t about a book. It was about protecting a guy mainstream media adores.

Some would say the timing is bad for this information to come out. This is incorrect. This is the best time, shortly after his announcement, for him to address the issue and put it behind him before getting into the heat of the debates. It’s a time when this news will have the lowest possible impact on his presidential chances.

Some tell us we need to be unbiased rather than being a conservative news outlet. If the scale ever tips away from the far-leftist lean it currently has, we may consider it. In the meantime, we’ll keep fighting the good fight.

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Culture and Religion

Muslim leader in Ilhan Omar’s district: ‘When David Duke of the Ku Klux Klan agrees with you…’



Muslim leader in Ilhan Omars district When David Duke of the Ku Klux Klan agrees with you

The controversy over Representative Ilhan Omar’s (D-MN) antisemtic statements and Tweets have garnered the freshman Congresswoman criticism from some unlikely sources, including many of the Muslim leaders in her own community. They, along with Jewish Democrats in the district that voted for Omar, are uniting to condemn the way Omar has been handling her first few months in office.

“When David Duke of the Ku Klux Klan agrees with you, you’re not doing something right,” said Mohamed Ahmed, a Muslim activist who spoke with a panel of other local leaders.

The Congresswoman came under fire for her statements, but the response from Congress was muted. Rather than focusing on antisemitism or even including her name in an “anti-hate” resolution, they watered it down to include essentially any form of hate and refused to note Omar’s role as the catalyst for the resolution in the first place.

In other words, she got off without even getting a slap in the wrist.

But the words are still out there and thus far the antisemitic Congresswoman seems more concerned about other people’s reactions than whether or not her words were wrong. Apparently, she still sees no problem in what she said, but will refrain from saying them in public for political expediency.

My Take

As noted here before, one of the goals of the Democratic Party is to normalize antisemitism. While everyone seems to be focused on whether or not Omar is sorry for her words, nobody’s wondering why the Democratic Party as a whole seems to be perfectly fine with her feelings.

It’s getting harder and harder for conservative news outlets to speak out against such things. It’s not that there aren’t enough willing to say it, but between social media and search – the two primary traffic drivers for many conservative sites – they have to tone down their news so as not to get banned. This is just one of many reasons it’s so important for our readers to support us so we can continue bringing these stories to light.

The last thing we need is for someone like Ilhan Omar continuing to spread her feelings unabated. It’s clear the Democrats are unwilling to do something about it. Perhaps it’s time to help a moderate Democrat win a primary election against her. She was endorsed by the Justice Democrats, so it’s pretty clear how her radical ideologies emerged.

The world needs to know that Ilhan Omar doesn’t represent American perspectives. More importantly. voters in her district need to know this. We need to keep spreading the truth.

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