Connect with us

Democrats

Republicans’ poll numbers prove October momentum

Published

on

Republicans poll numbers prove October momentum

Polling is one of many metrics that can be used to predict a race. Having already analyzed the financial commitment of each party in the 14 battleground Senate races in last week’s article, this week, poll numbers will be examined to predict the outcome of the Midterm Elections. In addition to the 14 senate races I have been covering, House seats and gubernatorial races will also be mentioned in this week’s election coverage. For clarity of sources, I am using the polling documented in Real Clear Politics.

Senate Highlights

At the end of September, the Senate map of Real Clear Politics showed a Senate with 47 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 9 toss ups. October concluded with the Republicans having 50, Democrats having 44 and the remaining 6 seats as tossups. What changed? North Dakota, Texas, and Tennessee were all changed to Republican. The Democrats, in that same period of time, have gained nothing in terms of polling. According to RCP, the GOP holds a majority in the Senate with Vice President Mike Pence to break a partisan tie.

A look at the toss ups shows an even grimmer picture for the Senate hopes of the Blue Wave. In Missouri, polling has Josh Hawley ahead of Claire McCaskill (Hawley+2.0). In Florida, Bill Nelson has an uncomfortable +2.6 point lead. In Indiana, Steve Braun has edged a +.6 advantage, the most recent polls in his favor. Jon Tester’s consistent lead in Montana polls has yet to see him marked as blue. The Montana RCP is currently Tester +4.5. Months ago, Arizona was going in favor of Kyrsten Sinema. In October, things changed. Martha McSally has held on to a growing +.7 RCP spread. Lastly, Nevada gives no good news to Democrats. Jackie Rosen had good poll numbers in September. In October, Dean Heller holds a narrow +1.7 advantage because of strong polling in October. The no tossups map has the Republicans at 54 seats and the Democrats at 46, a GOP net gain of 3. Of the two toss ups that point to narrow Democrat victories, Montana provides the only minor comfort. Rick Scott outperformed his RCP average in 2014 to win the gubernatorial race. In other interesting developments, the most recent poll has Bob Hugin within five.

House Highlights

September concluded with a breakdown in the House with Democrats 206, Republicans 189, and 40 tossups. In October, these tossups have swung in favor of the Republicans. The current House RCP is Democrats 205, Republicans 200, and and 30 tossups. The Republicans have a lot more ground to lose in the House. The overwhelming majority of tossups are red seats. Yet the momentum is clearly in favor of Republicans who look as though they will narrowly hold on to the House of Representatives.

Gubernatorial Highlights

Gubernatorial polling is the source of the least amount of change. The Republicans have lost 1 seat while the Democrats have gained nothing in terms of polling in October. But here the Blue Wave can find some solace. Andrew Gillum, despite a corruption scandal, has outpolled DeSantis. John Kasich’s lack of popularity is favoring Democrats in Ohio. Scott Walker is in trouble in Wisconsin. Going by RCP, the Democrats will gain 7 gubernatorial seats in the midterms.

Final Thoughts

The momentum through measurement of polling shows Republicans gains in the month of October. Not only is the success of a Blue Wave truly impossible with the impossibility of securing the Senate, but the Republicans holding onto the House is entirely within reach as well. The Democrats may see success in gubernatorial races but the national rhetoric of the Democrats would not call that a successful midterm except in order to prevent admitting defeat. At best polling shows that the Republicans narrowly lose the House and a few Governor’s seats. But the gains in the Senate offset these losses, especially once a new Supreme Court vacancy appears. The GOP can call the midterms a win even with such meager result. Lastly, take polls with a grain of salt. They can’t predict which side shows up, especially in a case like Bob Menendez who is very unpopular, according to polls. And they also had Hillary winning in 2016.

Advertisement
Click to comment

Democrats

More is never enough: AOC calls Amazon’s $15 per hour minimum wage ‘starvation wages’

Published

on

More is never enough AOC calls Amazons 15 per hour minimum wage starvation wages

What is the limit to how high many Democratic Socialists like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez want the minimum wage to go? More. It doesn’t matter how high it is. They’ll always want it to be higher. Never mind the economic consequences of increased costs. Does anyone really care if her policies would shut down many if not most small businesses? What’s wrong with exponential inflation as a result of devaluing wages by forcing the lowest level employees to make as much or more than skilled employees?

It’s all just details to Democratic Socialists. They want to attack the rich and destroy the poor. At least that’s what their policies would do whether they’re willing to acknowledge it or not.

The latest victim of AOC’s wrath is an old foe: Amazon. She and other socialists like Senator Bernie Sanders have been going after Amazon for a while. The latest insult hurled by the freshman Congresswoman is also an old one, though with new wording. She accused the e-commerce giant of paying their employees “starvation wages.”

Here’s the problem. Amazon has a self-imposed minimum wage of $15, the number Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez, and other Democrats have tossed out as the value they want for the national minimum wage. Amazon complied, but it wasn’t enough. In fact, they pay many of their workers higher and noted in a statement that they pay more as a starting point for employees in Staten Island near Ocasio-Cortez’s own congressional district.

“These allegations are absurd. Amazon associates receive industry-leading pay starting at $15 an hour – in fact, hourly associates at our Staten Island facility earn between $17.30 and $23 an hour, plus benefits which include comprehensive medical, dental, and vision insurance. On top of these benefits, Amazon pre-pays 95% of continuing education tuition costs through its Career Choice program for associates who want to pursue in-demand careers. For anyone who wants to know what it’s like to work in an Amazon fulfillment center, sign up for a tour today.”

That’s the thing with Democratic Socialists. Whatever demands anyone meets are yesterday’s demands. If they say they want $15 per hour and that gets delivered, they will not celebrate it as a victory for long. They’ll quickly turn around and demand $20 per hour. Why? Because more is never enough.

More is the starting point for Democratic Socialists. It’s also the middle; those who deliver on the demands of socialists will invariably be told the new demands are more. And more. And more.

We are currently forming the American Conservative Movement. If you are interested in learning more, we will be sending out information in a few weeks.

American Conservative Movement

Continue Reading

Democrats

Around three dozen people show up to hear Rashida Tlaib talk about impeaching Trump

Published

on

Around three dozen people show up to hear Rashida Tlaib talk about impeaching Trump

Across the nation, the masses of people calling for impeachment of President Trump rivaled the protests in Hong Kong over the proposed extradition law. Hundreds of police officers in riot gear were forced to take to the streets in every major city as the passionate hordes of people calling for Trump’s impeachment threatened to tear the streets to shreds if they didn’t get their way.

At least, that’s what MoveOn.org hoped to see. Instead, the planned huge events were embarrassingly tiny.

MoveOn.org Held Nationwide ‘#ImpeachTrump’ Rallies Saturday. Not A Lot Of People Showed Up.

MoveOn partnered with around two dozen organizations on the event, including activist group, Indivisible, the national Women’s March, Democracy for America, and CREDO, and looped in celebrities like Chelsea Handler and members of the cast and crew of “Modern Family” to help promote the event. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), who is leading the impeachment charge in the House of Represetatives, was among those legislators and high-profile guests invited to speak at the rallies.

But if their intent was to create the impression that hundreds of thousands of Americans stood at the ready to impeach President Donald Trump, the effort failed miserably. Across the country, turnout was sparse, even in dedicated leftist strongholds.

The Detroit event, which was supposed to be one of the biggest, had around three dozen people show up to hear Representative Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) speak about impeaching the President. That didn’t stop one of the organizers from posting a picture on Twitter and calling it a nice turnout.

No, that’s not a nice turnout. That’s shamefully small for a rally that features a member of Congress at an event organized by such a powerful progressive organization.

The Washington Times reports that MoveOn.org expected massive turnout at 120 events in cities and towns throughout the country. They were assisted by around two dozen progressive organizations in putting the rallies together.

Meanwhile, mainstream media has been relatively quiet despite having film crews at many of the events that were supposed to be packed. They didn’t want to harm the narrative that Americans want the President impeached even though a majority clearly do not.

The MoveOn impeachment rallies were about as packed as a Beto O’Rourke speaking engagement in a small town coffee shop. The uprising progressives expected simply didn’t materialize. At least the weather was nice.

We are currently forming the American Conservative Movement. If you are interested in learning more, we will be sending out information in a few weeks.

American Conservative Movement

Continue Reading

Democrats

Justin Haskins: ‘Socialism is completely antithetical to human nature’

Published

on

Justin Haskins Socialism is completely antithetical to human nature

Bernie Sanders has a vision for America. A path, as he likes to call it. This path is one that takes us down a winding road of “Democratic Socialism” all the while knowing the end result can be no different from every other path to socialism that has ever been tried. Socialism doesn’t work regardless of what path or which direction you take to get there.

But that’s not stopping proponents of Democratic Socialism, which seems to include the majority of the Democrats running for president today. Led by Sanders and his ideological cohort in the Senate, Elizabeth Warren, the notion that if you take from the rich by force and give it to the poor to “earn” their vote has become the calling card of the Democratic Party. It may have always been heading in this direction, but the 2020 election is shaping up to be either a full embrace of socialism within the party or the (hopefully) final mandate handed down from the people that America refuses to adopt the destructive tenets of a demonstrably poor ideology.

Anyone who thinks socialism will not come full circle if allowed to spring forth in part clearly doesn’t understand the nature of socialism itself. Once the seeds are planted by politicians, fed and watered by voters, and cultivated into laws, it begins the inevitable and unstoppable trend of self-sustained growth. A little socialism is like a plague that spreads until it is all-consuming.

The Heartland Institute‘s Justin Haskins joined Fox News host Tucker Carlson to lambaste the Senator’s repetitive talking points. He and others in his party want to win over the people by offering free stuff. Will voters fall for it?

We are currently forming the American Conservative Movement. If you are interested in learning more, we will be sending out information in a few weeks.

American Conservative Movement

Continue Reading

Facebook

Trending