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Republicans’ poll numbers prove October momentum

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Republicans poll numbers prove October momentum

Polling is one of many metrics that can be used to predict a race. Having already analyzed the financial commitment of each party in the 14 battleground Senate races in last week’s article, this week, poll numbers will be examined to predict the outcome of the Midterm Elections. In addition to the 14 senate races I have been covering, House seats and gubernatorial races will also be mentioned in this week’s election coverage. For clarity of sources, I am using the polling documented in Real Clear Politics.

Senate Highlights

At the end of September, the Senate map of Real Clear Politics showed a Senate with 47 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 9 toss ups. October concluded with the Republicans having 50, Democrats having 44 and the remaining 6 seats as tossups. What changed? North Dakota, Texas, and Tennessee were all changed to Republican. The Democrats, in that same period of time, have gained nothing in terms of polling. According to RCP, the GOP holds a majority in the Senate with Vice President Mike Pence to break a partisan tie.

A look at the toss ups shows an even grimmer picture for the Senate hopes of the Blue Wave. In Missouri, polling has Josh Hawley ahead of Claire McCaskill (Hawley+2.0). In Florida, Bill Nelson has an uncomfortable +2.6 point lead. In Indiana, Steve Braun has edged a +.6 advantage, the most recent polls in his favor. Jon Tester’s consistent lead in Montana polls has yet to see him marked as blue. The Montana RCP is currently Tester +4.5. Months ago, Arizona was going in favor of Kyrsten Sinema. In October, things changed. Martha McSally has held on to a growing +.7 RCP spread. Lastly, Nevada gives no good news to Democrats. Jackie Rosen had good poll numbers in September. In October, Dean Heller holds a narrow +1.7 advantage because of strong polling in October. The no tossups map has the Republicans at 54 seats and the Democrats at 46, a GOP net gain of 3. Of the two toss ups that point to narrow Democrat victories, Montana provides the only minor comfort. Rick Scott outperformed his RCP average in 2014 to win the gubernatorial race. In other interesting developments, the most recent poll has Bob Hugin within five.

House Highlights

September concluded with a breakdown in the House with Democrats 206, Republicans 189, and 40 tossups. In October, these tossups have swung in favor of the Republicans. The current House RCP is Democrats 205, Republicans 200, and and 30 tossups. The Republicans have a lot more ground to lose in the House. The overwhelming majority of tossups are red seats. Yet the momentum is clearly in favor of Republicans who look as though they will narrowly hold on to the House of Representatives.

Gubernatorial Highlights

Gubernatorial polling is the source of the least amount of change. The Republicans have lost 1 seat while the Democrats have gained nothing in terms of polling in October. But here the Blue Wave can find some solace. Andrew Gillum, despite a corruption scandal, has outpolled DeSantis. John Kasich’s lack of popularity is favoring Democrats in Ohio. Scott Walker is in trouble in Wisconsin. Going by RCP, the Democrats will gain 7 gubernatorial seats in the midterms.

Final Thoughts

The momentum through measurement of polling shows Republicans gains in the month of October. Not only is the success of a Blue Wave truly impossible with the impossibility of securing the Senate, but the Republicans holding onto the House is entirely within reach as well. The Democrats may see success in gubernatorial races but the national rhetoric of the Democrats would not call that a successful midterm except in order to prevent admitting defeat. At best polling shows that the Republicans narrowly lose the House and a few Governor’s seats. But the gains in the Senate offset these losses, especially once a new Supreme Court vacancy appears. The GOP can call the midterms a win even with such meager result. Lastly, take polls with a grain of salt. They can’t predict which side shows up, especially in a case like Bob Menendez who is very unpopular, according to polls. And they also had Hillary winning in 2016.

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Democrats

2020 should be like the real 1984, but instead we’re getting the Orwellian version

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2020 should be like the real 1984 but instead were getting the Orwellian version

Something amazing happened in 1984. Every state in the nation other than Minnesota recognized the prosperity and foreign relations prowess of President Ronald Reagan and rewarded him with the biggest landslide in American election history. Poor Walter Mondale didn’t have a chance against the killer economy, our growing strength against enemies, and pride Americans had in their nation and its leader.

We have the same formula brewing today. The economy is actually in better shape than it was under President Reagan. There may be no official Cold War, but we’re pressuring our enemies in Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea in ways that are in line with the pressure President Reagan exerted on the U.S.S.R.

But many Americans, particularly those who make up the radical progressives among Democrats, do not feel pride in their nation. Moreover, they feel nothing but contempt for our leader. Why is this? Shouldn’t everyone be working through our prosperity to engage in the unified patriotism that made the 1984 elections such a lopsided affair? To understand why this isn’t the case, read George Orwell’s 1984.

Go ahead. It’s short. I’ll wait.

The dystopian society that disregarded the truth in Orwell’s terrifying novel was missing one important component. He was detailing the world as it could be based on what he was seeing around him at the time. But he didn’t show us the bridge, the factors and conditions that connected his real world with the future society he envisioned. Instead, he left it mostly to our imagination to determine how a society could go from normal to extreme in such a relatively short period of time.

The bridge he left for us to imagine is no longer relegated to fiction. We’re seeing it in front of us right now. The path to doublethink and Newspeak is paved by those embracing the tenets of a post-truth society. We’re witnessing gender dysphoria being normalized to the point that one must accept the feelings of those experiencing it or we’re called bigots. We’re seeing the post-truth society blur the lines between legal immigrants and illegal immigrants, ignoring the fact that one group (of which I’m included) went through the proper legal process to enter and live in the country the right way while the other group did the exact opposite, disregarding our laws and stealing our sovereignty for themselves. The most troubling example of the post-truth society is watching Democrats and the media ignore the demonstrable prosperity President Trump and GOP policies have brought to minorities. It’s unprecedented how well minorities are fairing in this economy and with the freedoms they’re enjoying, yet we’re being told that everyone on the right must be a racist.

These false narratives, being spread by “Fake News,” represent the greatest threat to the GOP’s election hopes. The desperation of the left that forces them to tell blatant lies would actually be comical if so many people weren’t buying into it all. Ask a Democrat if the President is racist, and many will say he is. Ask them for examples and all they have are lies like “Muslim bans” and “anti-immigrant” policies.

If we stay focused on presenting the truth to Americans, we can achieve what Reagan achieved in the landslide 1984 election. If the left’s lies prevail, we’ll be taking the first big step towards George Orwell’s vision of 1984 instead.

We are currently forming the American Conservative Movement. If you are interested in learning more, we will be sending out information in a few weeks.

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Democrats

Gavin Newsom is proof California is completely lost

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Gavin Newsom is proof California is completely lost

California Governor Gavin Newsom has one of the most prolific string of political failures ever seen in the United States. It seems like everything he touches turns to sludge. San Francisco, where he was on the Board of Supervisors or Mayor for 14 straight years, has become literally covered in human feces and is the homelessness capitol of America. As governor, his short tenure has already seen a state whose economy was crumbling fall further faster. But when it comes to getting elected, he’s a champion.

Why? Because California is completely lost. Those of us who live here realize it’s true. Despite unquestionable evidence that the state’s progressive policies are making things steadily worse, from high-and-still-growing taxes to unprecedented crime rates to the homeless problem that is not isolated to San Francisco, we continue to elect Democrats to drive us deeper into the hole. Despite the high taxes, we’re constantly running on budget deficits. How is this possible for a state so rich?

The answer is in the promises the Democrats make. And unfortunately, they keep many of their promises, which yields billions of dollars spent on a high-speed rail that was ill-conceived if it actually happened. But it didn’t. It’s massive amounts of money that accomplished nothing. Even when the programs “work,” they fail. More money has been spent per capita to stave off homelessness in San Francisco than anywhere else, yet it keeps getting worse.

Perhaps the biggest problem California has is believing the politicians. We get fed rhetoric that is so thick, it must be true because nobody would lie so blatantly. Except they really do lie. One of the latest was so big and ridiculous, even left-leaning PolitiFact had to call Newsom out.

Pants On Fire: Not Even Politifact Is Buying What Gavin Newsom Is Selling On San Francisco’s Homeless Problem

Politifact isn’t exactly the type of fact checking organization that rushes to defend Republicans or to take Democrats to task, so that they decided to take Newsom to the woodshed is worth mentioning.

When a lie is so egregious even your cheerleaders have to balk, you know you’ve gone a bit too far. But don’t expect Newsom to repent and come clean any time soon. As is part of the Democratic playbook, particularly in California, the most likely response is that he’s going to double down on his false claims. That’s what Democrats do when they’re caught in a lie.

If you’re curious, here’s Newsom’s most recent huge lie:

Gavin Newsom’s ridiculous claim: ‘Vast majority’ of San Francisco’s homeless people come from Texas

California Gov. Gavin Newsom claimed the “vast majority” of San Francisco’s homeless people come in from Texas.

San Francisco’s own homeless surveys contradict this. They show a large majority reported living in the city before becoming homeless, and just a fraction coming in from out-of-state.

Newsom’s office pointed to data from San Francisco’s bus ticket program for homeless people. But that defense doesn’t hold up. It shows just a small fraction, less than 7 percent, left for Texas, and doesn’t demonstrate that they originally came to San Francisco from that state.

In the end, we found Newsom made a ridiculous claim.

We rated it Pants on Fire.

Don’t blame California lawmakers for the state’s failures. They’re doing exactly what California residents want. People like Gavin Newsom are only fulfilling their promises to spend more, accomplish less, and keep the Democratic monopoly strong.

We are currently forming the American Conservative Movement. If you are interested in learning more, we will be sending out information in a few weeks.

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Dianne Feinstein’s comment on Dayton shooter skipped one important point

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Dianne Feinsteins comment on Dayton shooter skipped one important point

Gun control is the talk of the town as the week comes to a close. Well, that and Greenland. And Jeffrey Epstein. But the mass shootings two weeks ago has DC buzzing, media furiously reporting, and activists on both sides of the debate furiously Tweeting at each other. Senator Dianne Feinstein weighed in on the discussion by pointing out some important facts about the alleged Dayton shooter, Connor Betts.

Her facts are correct. Her analysis is off because it missed one important point. We’ll get to that in a minute, but let’s declare once and for all (though I’m sure I’ll have to repeat myself later) that the 2nd Amendment IS NOT ABOUT HUNTING OR HOME PROTECTION. Our right to keep and bear firearms was put into the Constitution by our founders because they recognized what could happen if the people had no recourse against an oppressive government. Just as Venezuelans didn’t realize they danger they were putting themselves into when they allowed their guns to be taken away, so too do many Americans put way too much trust in government.

The authoritarian left wants guns because they know they’ll never achieve their endgame as long as the people can defend themselves from tyranny.

Feinstein is correct that the Dayton shooter was able to cause an extreme amount of death and injury in a short period of time. Police were quick to respond, otherwise it could have been much worse. But as our EIC pointed out in a Tweet, Feinstein’s narrative is worthless when you look at it from the opposite perspective.

Gun control is not the solution to our mass shooting problem. If anything, gun control has enabled shooters to enact their crimes without fear of many “good guys with a gun” to stop them. We must never give up our 2nd Amendment rights.

We are currently forming the American Conservative Movement. If you are interested in learning more, we will be sending out information in a few weeks.

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