Every election year, the final pushes by both parties are designed to get the base juiced up and less-interested voters scared enough to go to the polls. The second part, fear, drove the GOP to victories in 2010, 2014, and 2016, that swayed control of the House, then the Senate, then the White House.
The White House isn’t up for grabs in the midterms and the Senate is looking increasingly secure for Republicans to hold onto a slim majority. The House of Representatives, on the other hand, is loaded with toss-ups. There are currently 192 seats that are considered solid or likely to go to Democrats and 194 seats solid or likely for Republicans. That leaves 49 contested seats, 46 of which are currently held by Republicans.
It’s no wonder most analysts are giving Democrats 70%+ chances of taking over the House. In fact, the certainty that these analysts hold for a majority switch in the lower chamber is nearly as high as the certainty they had in 2016 that Hillary Clinton would be elected President.
We all know how that one worked out.
Because the House is reshuffled every two years, it usually comes down to passion. Anxiety and fear about Obamacare drove voters to give the GOP the House in 2010 and has allowed them to keep it for eight years. Unfortunately for the GOP, that same fear has been turned against them as Democrats and their mainstream media cronies have spun perceptions to make Republicans appear to be the danger when it comes to healthcare. How they convinced Americans that Democrats are the best choice to fix the healthcare system they demolished with the Affordable Care Act is actually quite amazing. If it weren’t so devastatingly damaging to the country, I’d actually give them kudos for such a strong propaganda-driven subterfuge with widespread fruits of their labors.
Democrats have the money. They have the passion; hatred for President Trump is just a bit higher than support for his agenda at this time. Again, the media has played their part in making him the most polarizing President in modern history.
Lastly, Democrats have this final week in which media outlets from the smallest blogs to the biggest news agencies will be nearly unified in their vilification of every vulnerable GOP House candidate they can find. They’ll be painting the Republican as a Trump-inspired right-wing extremist while painting the Democrat as a common sense centrist.
This may all seem grim for Republicans, but there are three factors that can (and in my opinion probably will) deliver the House majority to the GOP for a fifth straight election:
- Silent Trump supporters. Love him, hate him, or feel indifference towards him. Regardless of how you feel about Steve Bannon (I don’t care for the guy), you must acknowledge that he knows how elections work. He infamously told then-candidate Trump that he was 100% certain he’d win when ever his closest allies were saying his chances were pretty good while quietly fearing the worst. Bannon recently noted that the polls do not reflect the silent Trump supporters, the growing army of voters who will back him and Republicans every time while never taking a moment to do a silly poll.
- Caravan chaos. Despite the most devious machinations of mainstream media, the general feelings towards the invading force of the migrant caravan heading towards our southern border is not pleasant. Attempts to paint them as a group of feeble women and children looking for a better life are easily debunked by looking at pictures of the caravan. Mostly comprised of young, healthy adult males, it is clearly not what leftists want us to believe. Americans see this. They talk. They have their doubts. As it marches forward and grows, it raises the tension level and gets more people to want a wall built. With a Democratic majority in the House, there will be no wall.
- Big stories that don’t really hurt Republicans. From Jamal Khashoggi to Cesar Sayoc to Robert Bowers, the news leading up to election day has stories that paint the President in a negative light. Mainstream media loves it. Democrats love it. Somehow, they’re missing one important point. These are not stories that will sway voters. It’s not news that the President says politically incorrect things, nor is it news that he will campaign and attack the press and Democrats even when tragedies strike. Those who take offense to his recent handling of these events weren’t voting Republican either way. Those who support him are equally unswayed. Those on the fence have issues that strike closer to home that will drive them to vote one way or the other.
Anyone who tells you they know how the election is going to go is a fool who probably still can’t believe Hillary lost in 2016. The moral of this story is you shouldn’t listen to anyone. Just vote. Get friends and family to vote. Do your part and pray for the best.