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Republicans’ poll numbers prove October momentum

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Republicans poll numbers prove October momentum

Polling is one of many metrics that can be used to predict a race. Having already analyzed the financial commitment of each party in the 14 battleground Senate races in last week’s article, this week, poll numbers will be examined to predict the outcome of the Midterm Elections. In addition to the 14 senate races I have been covering, House seats and gubernatorial races will also be mentioned in this week’s election coverage. For clarity of sources, I am using the polling documented in Real Clear Politics.

Senate Highlights

At the end of September, the Senate map of Real Clear Politics showed a Senate with 47 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 9 toss ups. October concluded with the Republicans having 50, Democrats having 44 and the remaining 6 seats as tossups. What changed? North Dakota, Texas, and Tennessee were all changed to Republican. The Democrats, in that same period of time, have gained nothing in terms of polling. According to RCP, the GOP holds a majority in the Senate with Vice President Mike Pence to break a partisan tie.

A look at the toss ups shows an even grimmer picture for the Senate hopes of the Blue Wave. In Missouri, polling has Josh Hawley ahead of Claire McCaskill (Hawley+2.0). In Florida, Bill Nelson has an uncomfortable +2.6 point lead. In Indiana, Steve Braun has edged a +.6 advantage, the most recent polls in his favor. Jon Tester’s consistent lead in Montana polls has yet to see him marked as blue. The Montana RCP is currently Tester +4.5. Months ago, Arizona was going in favor of Kyrsten Sinema. In October, things changed. Martha McSally has held on to a growing +.7 RCP spread. Lastly, Nevada gives no good news to Democrats. Jackie Rosen had good poll numbers in September. In October, Dean Heller holds a narrow +1.7 advantage because of strong polling in October. The no tossups map has the Republicans at 54 seats and the Democrats at 46, a GOP net gain of 3. Of the two toss ups that point to narrow Democrat victories, Montana provides the only minor comfort. Rick Scott outperformed his RCP average in 2014 to win the gubernatorial race. In other interesting developments, the most recent poll has Bob Hugin within five.

House Highlights

September concluded with a breakdown in the House with Democrats 206, Republicans 189, and 40 tossups. In October, these tossups have swung in favor of the Republicans. The current House RCP is Democrats 205, Republicans 200, and and 30 tossups. The Republicans have a lot more ground to lose in the House. The overwhelming majority of tossups are red seats. Yet the momentum is clearly in favor of Republicans who look as though they will narrowly hold on to the House of Representatives.

Gubernatorial Highlights

Gubernatorial polling is the source of the least amount of change. The Republicans have lost 1 seat while the Democrats have gained nothing in terms of polling in October. But here the Blue Wave can find some solace. Andrew Gillum, despite a corruption scandal, has outpolled DeSantis. John Kasich’s lack of popularity is favoring Democrats in Ohio. Scott Walker is in trouble in Wisconsin. Going by RCP, the Democrats will gain 7 gubernatorial seats in the midterms.

Final Thoughts

The momentum through measurement of polling shows Republicans gains in the month of October. Not only is the success of a Blue Wave truly impossible with the impossibility of securing the Senate, but the Republicans holding onto the House is entirely within reach as well. The Democrats may see success in gubernatorial races but the national rhetoric of the Democrats would not call that a successful midterm except in order to prevent admitting defeat. At best polling shows that the Republicans narrowly lose the House and a few Governor’s seats. But the gains in the Senate offset these losses, especially once a new Supreme Court vacancy appears. The GOP can call the midterms a win even with such meager result. Lastly, take polls with a grain of salt. They can’t predict which side shows up, especially in a case like Bob Menendez who is very unpopular, according to polls. And they also had Hillary winning in 2016.

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Democrats

2020 hopefuls lurching leftward to appeal to radical progressive base

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2020 hopefuls lurching leftward to appeal to radical progressive base

The great primary evolution is already starting. We saw it in 2016 as every Republican candidate tried to “evolve” their views to cater to the conservative base. No evolution was more striking than candidate Trump’s, who went from supporting gun bans and partial birth abortion as a younger man to being one of the most conservative candidates during the primaries.

We’re seeing it now with the Democratic candidates and potential candidates as they try to plant their ideological flags as far to the left as possible. Former Trump pollster John Mclaughlin gave his opinion on the leftward lurch of the field, focusing on Elizabeth Warren, Cory “Spartacus” Booker, and Kamala Harris. Each has attempted to paint themselves as the radical progressive the primary-voting base desires. All of them were much more moderate in the past. Warren was even a Republican in the 1990s.

The thing that makes this trend most disturbing is that the “far left” of the past is nothing compared to the radical progressivism of today’s Democratic base. By the time the primaries really heat up, most if not all will be full-blown socialists.


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Democrats

Pirro: Democrats putting politics over people

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Pirro Democrats putting politics over people

Following President Trump’s speech to America with his compromise offer to Democrats to secure the border and end the government shutdown, Fox News host Judge Jeanine Pirro was in rare form as she went after Democrats for instantly rejecting the proposal. Her biggest target was Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.

The President has requested funds in order to build a small portion of the border wall, render humanitarian assistance, improve drug detection technology, and hire 2,750 additional border patrol agents and 75 immigration judge teams. In exchange, he’s offering three years of extended protection for DACA recipients and those with Temporary Protected Status.

Here was her response:

My Take

There are many conservatives who are against the proposal. Under normal circumstances, I would be as well. But we’re approaching a full month of the government shutdown. Enough is enough.


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Democrats

Will Democrats abandon Dreamers over the political ploy of the border wall?

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Will Democrats abandon Dreamers over the political ploy of the border wall

The ball is back in the Democrats’ court. Some may say it’s been there the whole time. I do. Unfortunately, most Americans have bought into the leftist media narrative that the President is forcing the government shutdown to continue by not negotiating despite clear evidence to the contrary.

Nevertheless, the President has decided to make his compromise public. He took to national television to offer three years worth of protection to Dreamers.

Trump’s immigration offer brings polarized reactions from Dems and GOP

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trumps-immigration-offer-brings-polarized-reactions-from-dems-and-gopPresident Trump’s immigration compromise package to end the partial government shutdown drew sharp reactions from Democratic and Republican lawmakers alike.

In a televised White House address Saturday, Trump offered Democrats a three-year extension of protections for 700,000 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients, in exchange for the $5.7 billion to fund a barrier along the southern border with Mexico.

The Democrats’ responses were predictable. They don’t want any deal that includes the border wall because they realize if they can keep the wall from going forward, it harms the President’s chances for reelection in 2020.

Period.

This has never been about helping immigrants. Democrats are willing to harm both Dreamers and 800,000 Americans hurt by the shutdown in order to make the President look bad for 2020. They’re a disgrace to our nation’s government. Build the wall.


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