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Republicans’ poll numbers prove October momentum

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Republicans poll numbers prove October momentum

Polling is one of many metrics that can be used to predict a race. Having already analyzed the financial commitment of each party in the 14 battleground Senate races in last week’s article, this week, poll numbers will be examined to predict the outcome of the Midterm Elections. In addition to the 14 senate races I have been covering, House seats and gubernatorial races will also be mentioned in this week’s election coverage. For clarity of sources, I am using the polling documented in Real Clear Politics.

Senate Highlights

At the end of September, the Senate map of Real Clear Politics showed a Senate with 47 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 9 toss ups. October concluded with the Republicans having 50, Democrats having 44 and the remaining 6 seats as tossups. What changed? North Dakota, Texas, and Tennessee were all changed to Republican. The Democrats, in that same period of time, have gained nothing in terms of polling. According to RCP, the GOP holds a majority in the Senate with Vice President Mike Pence to break a partisan tie.

A look at the toss ups shows an even grimmer picture for the Senate hopes of the Blue Wave. In Missouri, polling has Josh Hawley ahead of Claire McCaskill (Hawley+2.0). In Florida, Bill Nelson has an uncomfortable +2.6 point lead. In Indiana, Steve Braun has edged a +.6 advantage, the most recent polls in his favor. Jon Tester’s consistent lead in Montana polls has yet to see him marked as blue. The Montana RCP is currently Tester +4.5. Months ago, Arizona was going in favor of Kyrsten Sinema. In October, things changed. Martha McSally has held on to a growing +.7 RCP spread. Lastly, Nevada gives no good news to Democrats. Jackie Rosen had good poll numbers in September. In October, Dean Heller holds a narrow +1.7 advantage because of strong polling in October. The no tossups map has the Republicans at 54 seats and the Democrats at 46, a GOP net gain of 3. Of the two toss ups that point to narrow Democrat victories, Montana provides the only minor comfort. Rick Scott outperformed his RCP average in 2014 to win the gubernatorial race. In other interesting developments, the most recent poll has Bob Hugin within five.

House Highlights

September concluded with a breakdown in the House with Democrats 206, Republicans 189, and 40 tossups. In October, these tossups have swung in favor of the Republicans. The current House RCP is Democrats 205, Republicans 200, and and 30 tossups. The Republicans have a lot more ground to lose in the House. The overwhelming majority of tossups are red seats. Yet the momentum is clearly in favor of Republicans who look as though they will narrowly hold on to the House of Representatives.

Gubernatorial Highlights

Gubernatorial polling is the source of the least amount of change. The Republicans have lost 1 seat while the Democrats have gained nothing in terms of polling in October. But here the Blue Wave can find some solace. Andrew Gillum, despite a corruption scandal, has outpolled DeSantis. John Kasich’s lack of popularity is favoring Democrats in Ohio. Scott Walker is in trouble in Wisconsin. Going by RCP, the Democrats will gain 7 gubernatorial seats in the midterms.

Final Thoughts

The momentum through measurement of polling shows Republicans gains in the month of October. Not only is the success of a Blue Wave truly impossible with the impossibility of securing the Senate, but the Republicans holding onto the House is entirely within reach as well. The Democrats may see success in gubernatorial races but the national rhetoric of the Democrats would not call that a successful midterm except in order to prevent admitting defeat. At best polling shows that the Republicans narrowly lose the House and a few Governor’s seats. But the gains in the Senate offset these losses, especially once a new Supreme Court vacancy appears. The GOP can call the midterms a win even with such meager result. Lastly, take polls with a grain of salt. They can’t predict which side shows up, especially in a case like Bob Menendez who is very unpopular, according to polls. And they also had Hillary winning in 2016.

Democrats

Following a terrible week for Michael Avenatti, his law firm has been evicted over past due rent

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Following a terrible week for Michael Avenatti his law firm has been evicted over past due rent

Things were looking pretty bad for attorney Michael Avenatti last week. He was arrested for domestic abuse, making him the laughing stock on social media venues that he prizes as his public relations arm. His star client, porn star Stormy Daniels, is reportedly reconsidering her association with her lawyer. That was last week. This week is starting off badly as well.

His law firm has been evicted from their Newport Beach, California office building for skipping out on four months rent totally $213,000.

Avenatti’s law firm evicted from California offices over unpaid $213G rent

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/avenattis-law-firm-evicted-from-california-offices-over-unpaid-213g-rentMichael Avenatti’s law firm was ordered to be evicted from its California offices over unpaid rent after the judge dismissed his attempt to block the eviction, the latest setback for the embattled lawyer who was arrested on domestic violence charges earlier this week.

His law firm – Eagan Avenatti – was sued after skipping four months of rent payments totaling over $213,000.

My Take

As I was saying even before this latest round of bad news, Michael Avenatti needs to take a long break from the public eye. Even the best spin doctors couldn’t salvage his reputation in the short term. If he hopes to someday emerge into the public spotlight that he craves, he’ll need to take a break from being in the news and get some solid ground underneath him.

Many leftists supported him in his quests to take down the President, block Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation, launch a 2020 presidential run, and become a prominent face for the Democratic Party. It’s safe to say they backed the wrong horse.

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Conspiracy Theory

Many Democrats support Mueller investigation without knowing what it’s about

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“Trump stole the election!”

Two years and two elections ago, something happened that has Democrats scratching their heads even today. Hillary Clinton lost. She wasn’t supposed to lose. She was cheated some way, somehow.

This is what they hope to be proven by special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian influence in the 2016 elections. The problem is a majority of Democrats think the Russians did something that Mueller’s team isn’t even investigating because there’s absolutely no hint of a possibility that it could be true.

67% of Democrats believe “Russia tampered with vote tallies in order to get Donald Trump elected President.”

Let that sink in.

Robert Mueller Poll

If you believe Russia attempted to influence the elections by using social media and other venues to spread anti-Hillary rhetoric, you’re almost certainly correct. In fact, the Mueller investigation has assumed that to be true from the beginning. The question isn’t whether or not Russia tried to influence the elections in this way. It’s whether or not Americans helped them, in particular members of the Trump campaign.

What’s not being considered is whether or not Russia tampered with vote tallies. They did not. It’s not even a consideration in Mueller’s investigation, yet two-thirds of Democrats believe it to be true.

67% of Democrats can’t wait for Mueller to prove their theories correct even though he isn’t even investigating vote tally tampering at all. It’s reminiscent of the days after Obamacare was launched when Democrats asked, “Wait, it’s not free?”

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Democrats

Andrew Gillum concedes to Ron DeSantis in Florida gubernatorial race

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Andrew Gillum concedes to Ron DeSantis in Florida gubernatorial race

It was arguably the most watched gubernatorial race in the nation this past midterm election season and it didn’t disappoint. It took a recount and multiple lawsuits to finish, but in the end Republican Ron DeSantis defeated Democrat Andrew Gillum.

The mayor of Jacksonville finally conceded for the second time today, nearly two weeks after election day. He already conceded once on election fight.

Andrew Gillum concedes in Florida governor’s race for second time

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2018/11/17/andrew-gillum-concedes-florida-governors-race-second-time/2041301002/In a four-minute video posted live on Facebook, Mayor Gillum stood with his wife R. Jai, a Tallahassee park in the background and both dressed in Florida A&M University orange and green. Gillum first thanked his supporters. Then, he officially acknowledged Republican Ron DeSantis as the winner.

“R. Jai and I wanted to take a moment to congratulate Mr. DeSantis on becoming the next governor of the great state of Florida,” Gillum said in the video posted at about 5 p.m.

DeSantis Tweeted acknowledgement of the concession.

Florida is a bellwether for the 2020 presidential election. The closeness of the race and the apparent corruption in the state means both parties have a lot of work to do. The state needs to get their act together before then as well.

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