I distinctly remember the day the Coronavirus Task Force extended 15 Days to Slow the Spread to an additional 30. They flashed a graph up on the screen that showed a stunning prediction. If we went on with our normal lives, it was predicted that somewhere between 1 and 2.2 million Americans would die of the virus. This was a stunning number and the Task Force was proposing mitigation actions to reduce it by an order of magnitude.
The Original Story
When the model was presented, we were told the reduced impacts were dependent on compliance with the severe social distancing recommendations that were presented and baked into the model. These were then expanded on by petty tyrants like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti. So Americans largely complied with ridiculous limitations on religious services, shopping items and closures of public outdoor spaces. Likely because many are under threat for being fined for everything from attending a drive in church service to standing less than 6 feet from someone else in public.
The Model Fails
If we all adhered to the federal mitigation guidelines and the additional ones specified at the state and local level, projections for deaths from the virus fell to 100 to 240 thousand. This is the infamous IMHE model. Journalists such as Alex Berenson and Sean Davis have been dutifully comparing the models predictions to reality. They have found its usefulness to be quite dismal.
With questions about the predictive accuracy of the model, pressure is increasing to let the economy come back to life. This is the last thing the media wants. The evidence is in their behavior during the daily press conference. One day the President is not authoritarian enough because he won’t force Republican governors to issue stay at home orders. The next he is a brutal authoritarian if he might pressure states to follow federal guidance to lift the restrictions.
Light That Fire
So now they will endeavor to make you forget why you agreed to this in the first place. Listen to the short exchange between Savannah Guthrie and Dr. Anthony Fauci that ends at the 3:25 mark:
This quote for Guthrie begins the gaslighting:
The initial projections which took a lot of people’s breath away was potentially 100 to 240 thousand deaths in this country.
That was not the initial projection. The initial projection was 1-2.2 million. We sacrificed immense liberty and economic gains to stop this level of tragedy. We were told we would be aiming for the 100 to 240 thousand mark.
The introduction is the set up for the money quote from Dr. Fauci:
The real data is telling us that it is highly likely that we are having a definite positive effect by this mitigation we’re doing. The physical separation. So I believe we are going to have a downturn and it looks more like 60,000 than 100-200,000. But having said that, we better be careful that we don’t say we’re doing so well we can pull back. We still have to put our foot on the accelerator when it comes to mitigation and physical separation.
The Fallacy
Actually, what the data is telling us is that the mitigation we are doing is far more effective than originally thought or the assumptions in the model were always wrong. The case severity has never matched the level of hospital beds required by the model even as the number of infections rises. The death rate was revised down after it had assumed significant mitigation in the initial projection. And after those monitoring it like Alex and Sean pointed out the significant misses across the board.
Never forget, the original projection was 1-2.2 million deaths. Even that is looking patently ridiculous in light of new data. Iceland has randomly tested approximately 10% of their population. Fifty percent of positive cases are asymptomatic. The CDC’s most recent estimate was that 25% of cases are without symptoms. This would change both the case severity rate and death rate significantly. Iceland’s only significant restriction is on gatherings larger than 20. Most shops and businesses are still open. As of Friday they had seven deaths or a death rate of 0.4%. Not the 1.0-3.5% that has been thrown around.
Exchanges like this interview between Guthrie and Fauci are meant to reshape your perception of why we did all of this in the first place. It also changes the story about what the initial model took into account. Be prepared. Now, when President Trump opens up the economy, even with caution and sensitivity to local conditions, if 60,0001 people die he will be pilloried. The media chorus of “We were supposed to keep our foot on the gas with this mitigation thing” will be deafening. At least until the corporate media and their allies in the Democrat party are sure Trump will lose in November.
American Conservative Movement
Join fellow patriots as we form a grassroots movement to advance the cause of conservatism. The coronavirus crisis has prompted many, even some conservatives, to promote authoritarianism. It’s understandable to some extent now, but it must not be allowed to embed itself in American life. We currently have 8000+ patriots with us in a very short time. If you are interested, please join us to receive updates.
One Sick Day Proves We Need More Voices in Truthful Media
On October 19, I was sick. It crossed my mind that I had finally gotten the ‘rona, but my wife’s cream of chicken soup and a few extra hours of sleep into mid-afternoon had be back up and running after a sleepless night before.
When I finally stumbled over to my computer in the evening, I was met with a deluge of concern from readers. They asked what had happened as only one article had been posted that day. Generally, we post between 10-20 daily between all of the sites, not included curated and aggregated content. Seeing that we’d only posted my super-early morning article before taking the rest of the day off had readers assuming the worst.
We have a wonderful and talented group of writers who volunteer their time for the sites and their readers. Sharing their amazing perspectives has always been a blessing to us because we cannot afford to hire anyone at this time. But having great writers is meaningless if we don’t have great editors, or at least one additional. My wife helps me read and edit stories from time to time, but I’m a one-man show when it comes to getting the stories posted.
Whenever I highlight our desperate need for donations, I note that we do not receive money from Google ads even though most in conservative media are beholden. I often ambiguously note that the money donated will help us grow. Today, I’m highlighting a specific need. We must get an editor to help take some of the load and to expand on our mission of spreading the truth to the world. One sick day proved that.
The great news is that there is no shortage of people who CAN help. I am emailed variations of resumes every week by people who are much smarter than I am. As much as I’d love to hire some of them, we simply cannot. That takes money and as blessed as we’ve been to receive donations and collect ad money (though not from Google or Facebook), we have still fallen short.
Those who have the means, PLEASE consider donating. We have the standard Giving Fuel option and people can donate through PayPal. We are also diving into what we believe is extremely disruptive technology at LetsGo.finance, the world’s first major donation portal for crypto. I’ll be talking a lot more about them in the near future. Those who prefer Bitcoin can send to my address here: 3A1ELVhGgrwrypwTJhPwnaTVGmuqyQrMB8
We can get the voices out there and we’re willing to shine a spotlight on new talent. We just need the resources to make it happen. If you can help, we would be extremely grateful.
Thank you and God bless!
JD Rucker
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