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Early this morning, the trend indicator for 5-day-average new confirmed cases for the US from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center changed from ‘▲UP’ to ‘▼DOWN’. This could indicate that we are past the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak in the states.
In addition, we are seeing the same overall trends in the data for the rest of the world. While we are approaching the grim milestone of 2 million cases, many countries are pointing towards positive signs that the curve may indeed be flattening.
5-day moving average.
The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center has been tracking the number of new confirmed cases, making an assessment of whether they indicate an upward or downward trend over time. The graphical interpretation of both data sets indicates a downward trend in the US, Italy, Spain, Iran, Belgium, and Germany.
Fewer cases each day signifies that a country is flattening the curve.
On a trend line of total cases, a flattened curve looks how it sounds: flat. On the charts on this page, which show new cases per day, a flattened curve will show a downward trend in the number of daily new cases.
This analysis uses a 5-day moving average to visualize the number of new COVID-19 cases and calculate the rate of change. This is calculated for each day by averaging the values of that day, the two days before, and the two next days. This approach helps prevent major events (such as a change in reporting methods) from skewing the data.
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