A couple weeks ago I wrote about what a renewed, more modern, conflict with North Korea might look like. It now seems that what I wrote about might actually be coming into play. Our military has conducted a quiet buildup of air and naval assets in the region and conducts daily sorties near DPRK territory.
I pointed out that the best defense the North has is its extensive surface-to-air defenses. It’s possible that our sorties are designed to make the DPRK air defenses light off their radars, thereby giving our forces the ability to locate the fixed positions. Now, this will not allow them to know where all the mobile SAM sites will be if and when an attack comes, but it might let them know the favorite set up sites.
Accurate intelligence is one of the most vital aspects of modern warfare, and gathering it can’t always be done just with satellites in orbit. Sometimes it has to be done over the course of weeks or even months of carefully planned missions that gather data, followed by meticulous analysis.
Even then, there is an element of uncertainty know colloquially as the “fog of war.” I can tell you from personal experience that the fog of war permeates every aspect of warfare, from the large to the small. Good intelligence can negate much of the fog of war, but it will still be present.
It is likely that the US military and our allies are taking the necessary steps to be prepared on the intelligence front should military action in North Korea become unavoidable. This is especially prudent in light of tough talk at the UN by both President Trump and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Both of them have recently delivered excellent and stern admonitions that may need to be backed up with actions.
The other possibility is that the Trump Administration is saber rattling in the hopes that China will finally take bold action. The best scenario for everyone would be for Beijing to put a leash on their puppet in Pyongyang, but so far China has seemed reluctant to do so for whatever reason.
If the latter possibility is true, it would show the kind of subtle action the Trump faithful believe him to always be in the middle of, but for which he so far has shown no real aptitude. Time will tell how all of this will play out, but it’s my guess we won’t have to wait too much longer.
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