Once upon a time, “science” was understood to be a process where an hypothesis was presented. Tests were created to disprove that hypothesis. Only if it survived all the tests with a high degree of confidence was the hypothesis to be accepted as correct. It wasn’t a “fact” until a considerable number of related tests confirmed it again and again and it was proven useful for explaining new things.
In our COVID-mad world, “science” seems to be whatever Drs. Fauci and Birx tell the President, who is supposed to “follow scientific advice.” After all, they have all the appropriate letters after their names and he doesn’t. He has trusted them to apply their expertise to the task at hand.
In January, it became clear that a new virus had found its way into the world. We didn’t know how dangerous it might be, so an “abundance of caution” approach seemed reasonable. On January 20, the first case of Wuhan Flu in the US was confirmed. Nine days later the White House Task Force was created, and on January 31, President Trump banned travel from China. The rest of the world followed shortly.
Since that day, we have hung breathlessly on every word spoken by the “experts” who told us about what was surely to happen, based on “models.” We endured the literal destruction of millions of lives through a lockdown, supposedly to “flatten the curve.” With such messages sent down from above, who are we, mere mortals, to question the inhabitants of Mount Olympus?
It turns out that these demi-gods have feet of clay. As John Adams famously said during the trial of the British soldiers following the Boston Massacre, “Facts are stubborn things.” And those facts stand clearly athwart the path and pronouncements proceeding from the Quixotic Quislings of Quarantine. The very first declarations have now been shown to be false from the get-go.
We were told that without lockdowns, we’d have between one and over two million deaths from Wuhan Flu. We now know that Fauci and Birx combined models from the University of Washington (IHME) and the Imperial College of London (IC). They had radically different numbers and methodology. Such a bastardization is statistical malpractice.
A huge potential death toll would let the Q3s have a prominent role in the management of the country. The lure of such power is almost irresistible. So they made a “Scientific Wild-Assed Guess.” This is – politely termed – a “guesstimate” of how many might get infected and die. A realistic number related to prior coronavirus outbreaks (SARS, MERS) might lead to an unimpressive risk number. But being from the Centers for Disease CONTROL (emphasis intended), their bias was necessarily toward Götterdämmerung. Anything less would leave them without their fifteen minutes of infamy.
The second falsehood was the presentation on R0. This “basic reproduction number” is supposedly the number of people that will be infected from one person who has the disease. It’s a bizarre little statistic that lumps everyone together, completely ignoring the fact that many people get infected but don’t get sick, meaning that they don’t get counted. It also ignores the fact that some populations (elderly, multiple co-morbid factors) are far more susceptible to a disease. And finally, it has a little quirk. Because the first patient can infect more than one, and those infected can do the same, a seemingly insignificant change from 2.4 to 2.5 can actually result in multiplying the projected number of infections by several times.
The value given for R0 was done by SWAG. Nobody had a clue. But they should have. And they continued to press the meaningless R0 when the real number had to be Re, the “effective reproduction number.” That number takes into account different populations. Italy was already seeing its elderly and infirm decimated by the illness. Re takes into account realistic practices such as quarantining sick people and sheltering at-risk people in place.
But even that number turns out to be meaningless. South Korea aggressively monitored large numbers of people, and found that 85% of infected people were completely asymptomatic. We have had that confirmed by studies from Stanford and USC. Even the Los Angeles County Health Department agrees.
By the time President Trump announced his “Social Distancing Guidelines” on March 16, we knew that South Korea and Taiwan were not closing their economies. They had already contained the spread of the disease through the standard “track and trace” methods. But Fauci and Birx persuaded the President to do something that had never been tried – close an economy to stop the spread of the disease. It failed. They sold him some SWAG. And in buying it, he caused an economic “black swan” event. We have a full-blown “man-caused disaster” on our hands.
There is only one rational approach to take now. Open up America for business. Hair salons that have their workers use masks will probably attract customers who care about that. Restaurants will probably space their tables slightly. Businesses that install UVC lighting for continuous sterilization of the environment will attract others.
Our latest episode of the NOQ Report Podcast...
This opening should be “all-at-once.” The “abundance of caution” progressive approach denies the evidence, attempting to support a failed effort to “save lives” by instituting irrational programs that destroy far more than they purport to save.
Somehow I think I haven’t been strident enough over the months of this Fauci Fraud. Maybe I haven’t pursued the quo bene question enough. But facts are indeed stubborn things. And none of the facts support our current posture.
Mr. President, MAGA!
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