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Healthy skepticism is often the only viable path to the truth. To put it another way, trust but verify. Unfortunately, there’s really no way to verify anything about the Chinese Coronavirus because the people who can verify anything are the people who are telling us what we need to do. These are strange times, folks. In California, it just got a lot stranger in a hurry.
Governor Gavin Newsom ordered pretty much everything to shut down effective Thursday night. Non-essential businesses are to close the doors until further notice. Citizens are supposed to stay at home until further notice. We are under a massive statewide quarantine, nicely named a “stay at home” order. With everything shut down, there is no way to avoid economic calamity. We’re stuck.
I’m not complaining about the order on a personal level as my family has been holed up for a couple of weeks now. But this seems like a very dangerous maneuver considering it will destroy the state’s economy. This is no longer a question of “if” it will. California is effectively done economically for the rest of the year, well into next year, and likely only achieving a near-full recovery by 2023 in the most ideal circumstances. Clearly, Newsom knows something that makes him believe half the population will come down with the disease and overrun all state hospitals if he doesn’t act immediately. What is it?
The accepted rate of doubling in poor conditions is four days. In other words, without a quarantine the number of cases is expected to rise rapidly, leading to his estimate of over half the population infected in 68-72 days. That sounds bad. But that also assumes most people won’t be taking proper precautions, and as a resident of Southern California I know literally zero people who are not taking proper precautions. Most are not going to work anyway. The streets are generally empty even during rush hour. The four grocery stores I’ve visited recently (and still couldn’t find toilet paper) were a little crowded at open but everyone seemed to be practicing social distancing.
The vast majority of people are already taking steps to slow the virus. Is this mandatory quarantine really required with a disease that has been underwhelming compared to other diseases? Aren’t the people able to decide whether or not to close their doors? Couldn’t proper precautions be taken on a case-by-case basis? Forgive me if I’m sounding a bit to anti-paranoid, but everything I’ve seen on the ground in California seems to indicate we’re already in the process of limiting the spread of the disease while still minimizing the damage done to the economy.
And yet, the economy is going to be forced to tank, especially if the mandatory shutdown continues for several weeks. This seems more than just radical progressive overreaction or erring on the side of caution for the sake of political expediency. I do everything I can to keep my inner conspiracy theorist at bay, but it’s chomping at the bit to come out over this odd move.
In the best-case scenario, this is just a dumb overreaction. Nothing conspiratorial. Just an overabundance of caution. I can accept that.
If we want to look at a political conspiracy theory, there’s nothing that screams “reelect me” more than prompting dramatic responses for the sake of being chosen as the one to make it right. There were many contributing factors to how President George W. Bush won reelection in 2004. He had a terrible opponent in John Kerry, which definitely helped. But many say if there was no Iraq War, there would be no second term for President Bush even with Kerry as the alternative. Is Newsom securing his reelection now by taking California down a dark path so he has no place to go but up when the dust settles?
The truly concerning conspiracy theories here are that he knows things we don’t know about… something. Is the Chinese Coronavirus already raging well beyond the thousand or so cases confirmed in California? For those already wearing their tinfoil hats, is there something else at play behind the scenes with the coronavirus acting as a useful distraction? Is this just a normalization of government reliance ahead of an authoritarian push by the radical progressives? I don’t put much stock in these tinfoil theories, but I’d be remiss to not mention them.
Whatever is happening in California, nothing really changes for the residents. We’re in a bad situation with nothing to do but pray and try to stay afloat until the crisis ends. That’s not where we want to be, but it’s where we’re at right now. Stay calm. Pray. Keep your eyes and ears open.
Listen to the experts and take proper precautions. The Chinese Coronavirus is serious. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be asking questions when government reacts irrationally. What are they not telling us?
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