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Will the Chinese Coronavirus affect the primaries in four (and possibly three) states? Yes. Will it be enough to sway the results. It’s possible, though unlikely at this point because so many absentee ballots have already been sent in. But until we see actual numbers, there’s no way to tell for sure.
The one thing that’s certain is uncertainty. In Ohio, for example, a last-minute attempt by Governor Mike DeWine failed to postpone the election. But the Governor is moving forward with his plans anyway despite a court ruling against the postponement. He has ordered polling stations to remain closed on Tuesday.
Arizona, Illinois, and Florida are moving ahead with their primaries. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders are the two remaining viable candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. The coronavirus threat would seem to benefit Sanders whose base is generally much younger than Biden’s. The coronavirus can be contracted by anyone but the death rate is much higher in older people. As the death toll in the United States approaches 100, nobody under the age of 40 has died from the disease and only a handful under 60 have.
The one benefit for Biden is that older voters are generally more likely to have mailed in their ballots already. Add in the lower level of voter participation among Sanders’ younger base and the end results may end up being nearly the same as if the coronavirus had never escalated into a national emergency.
Democrats would like for the nomination process to end as quickly as possible so their nominee, likely Biden, will be able to switch gears to general election mode and the party can work towards unifying those who feel cheated by the system, namely Sanders supporters who are seeing shadows of the 2016 election emerging in 2020.
If the results of Tuesday’s primary yield unexpected wins for Sanders, expect the DNC to move to postpone or otherwise adjust voting procedures in near-future primaries. They don’t want the coronavirus to continue to muddy the waters.
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