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South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is the worst kind of politician. He’s a chameleon, putting on the full airs of radical progressivism when talking to a hyper-leftist crowd but sounding like a pragmatic centrist when talking to establishment Democrats. In many ways, he’s like President Obama in this manner and the exact opposite of Senator Elizabeth Warren. While Warren tries to sugar coat her policies, she doesn’t back away from them or pretend like they’re anything other than a communist’s dream to take down the United States.
Recently Buttigieg said the nomination race is going to end up being between him and her. That’s awfully haughty for someone who trails the other “moderate” at the top of the polls, former Vice President Joe Biden. It’s also an assumption that Warren will beat out fellow Marxist Senator Bernie Sanders. But even as we wind down the last part of the first stage of the nomination race, the Mayor seems to be correct. Biden’s only hope of not failing miserably and plummeting in the polls is impeachment keeping everyone else out of the news, while Sanders seems destined to be Warren’s VP pick should she get the nomination. As for anyone else in the race, Andrew Yang seems to be the only one trending upward. Senators Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Amy Klobuchar are fading while Tom Steyer is still trying to get people to know his name. Then, there’s Julian Castro who I anticipate will drop out before Thanksgiving.
This all points to the probability that going into the all-important Super Tuesday on March 3, 2020, Buttigieg and Warren could be the favorites. Sanders might be able to squeak out a win in New Hampshire and Biden might be able to ride his popularity with minorities to a victory in South Carolina, but if they don’t, that means Warren will likely have the bulk of the first four allotted delegates going into Super Tuesday.
What Buttigieg has more than anyone other than Warren and Sanders is money. He’s done a great job at filling up his coffers and keeping them full. As Biden fades, Buttigieg is the heir apparent to the establishment Democrats’ money. This is why he may be the only one who can beat Warren. Biden hasn’t been getting their money yet because they aren’t confident he’s going to make it, so they’re sitting on it to see if he surges or if Buttigieg is the guy to back. Once they determine he’s the one who can keep Warren off the ticket, they’ll flood him with donations.
Buttigieg, in turn, will flood the Super Tuesday states. How much of that is spent on California will depend on the makeup of the race at the time. Candidates need 15% of the vote in order to get in on the delegate pool. If It’s possible to ax out some of the candidates by keeping them below the threshold, he may spend big there. Warren is very likely to “win” the state, but it would only be decisively her victory in the unlikely event Sanders has dropped out by then.
If Buttigieg believes he can come in third and keep Biden and Harris below 15%, he may go big on the spend there. Then again, he may go small because it’s such an expensive state to compete in with a dozen or so media markets to flood. As long as he’s confident he can break the threshold to get delegates, he may go for wins in the other 13 Super Tuesday states instead.
It’s way to early to know definitively who’s going to compete and who will fizzle out in the race, but right now the smart money is split between Warren and Buttigieg. Then again, the smart money was on Clinton in 2016. How did that work out?
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