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North Korea threatens to test a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific, Trump responds

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It’s more than possible that North Korea will test a hydrogen bomb/nuclear weapon over the Pacific Ocean in response to President Trump’s new sanctions and his threats of military action. Calling Kim Jong-Un ‘rocket man’ probably didn’t help either. North Korea’s foreign minister is now warning that this new threat is coming and I imagine the Japanese are terrified by it. You can hardly blame them. Meanwhile in Hawaii, they are prepping for a nuclear weapon strike and Iran has just declared they are building more missiles. It’s a party… a very evil and deadly one.

Ri Yong Ho spoke to reporters in New York shortly after North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un made an unprecedented televised statement, accusing Trump of being “mentally deranged” and a dotard. The forceful rhetoric from Pyongyang came after Trump threatened to”totally destroy” North Korea in a speech to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday. Trump tweeted today, “Kim Jong Un of North Korea, who is obviously a madman who doesn’t mind starving or killing his people, will be tested like never before!”

“This could probably mean the strongest hydrogen bomb test over the Pacific Ocean. Regarding which measures to take, I don’t really know since it is what Kim Jong Un does,” Ri said. A test of this magnitude would be considered a major provocation by the US, South Korea and Japan. It would definitely be an act of war. Kim Jong-Un lashed out at Trump. He vowed that the American leader would “pay dearly” for his threat to destroy North Korea.

Kim’s fiery statement was delivered by North Korea’s propaganda arm. South Korean media called it the first such direct address to the world by Kim. Let me just add here that South Korea just promised $10 million to North Korea in aid. I’m sure that was protection money of a sort. It won’t work and China is warning that things are deteriorating quickly on the peninsula. Rumor has it that the US and Japan are looking to evacuate their people from South Korea. That is an indication of impending war.

Kim said Trump was “unfit to hold the prerogative of supreme command of a country.” He also described the President as “a rogue and a gangster fond of playing with fire.” Many analysts says this heated rhetoric is an announcement that North Korea is going to ramp up its weapons testing even more. On Tuesday, Trump mocked Kim as a “rocket man” on a “suicide mission” and said that if “forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea.”

Kim was blunt concerning Trump’s remarks at the UN. He said that they “have convinced me, rather than frightening or stopping me, that the path I chose is correct and that it is the one I have to follow to the last.” Kim said he was “thinking hard” about his response and that Trump “will face results beyond his expectation.” Kim may very well carry out his threats. Although not many seem to believe it, North Korea has the backing of China, Russia and Iran. They would never be this bold if they did not have the New Axis of Evil aligned with them.

Perspectives

What Would a Hydrogen Bomb Do to the Pacific Ocean? – The Atlantic

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/09/north-korea-bomb-pacific-ocean/540825/“It could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb in the Pacific,” Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho told reporters at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. “We have no idea about what actions could be taken as it will be ordered by leader …NBCNews.comQuartzNew York Post – – –

US stock futures lower after North Korea H-bomb threat – Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/content/2d547bb3-838c-3e6c-8dcc-ceed119f4bd8Wall Street is set to extend its losing streak to a second day, with investors’ focus back on rising geopolitical tensions after North Korea threatened to detonate a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean. With 90 minutes to go before the opening bell …Sputnik International

“Rocket Man” Threatens H-Bomb Detonation in Pacific | Aaron Simms, The Resurgent

http://theresurgent.com/rocket-man-threatens-h-bomb-detonation-in-pacific/The United States has great strength and patience, but if it is forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea. Rocket Man is on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime.Rocket Man is on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime.

Thus, North Korea’s newly threatened hydrogen bomb (H-bomb) test is yet another step in the escalating tensions with the country.  North Korea seeks to develop working H-bombs due to their greater power and ability to be miniaturized to place within warheads on land and submarine-launched missiles.

 

Reactions

Final Thoughts

I doubt that sanctions will have much of an affect. But Trump is targeting China with a new executive order which will impact a number of industries, including textiles, fishing, IT and the manufacturing industries. In essence, Trump is telling China and others, choose the US or choose North Korea and make your choice now. It’s a good move, but unlikely to work. The Chinese will claim that they have cut off North Korea and will deal with them through third channels. In my opinion, North Korea is a proxy for China.

War is upon us and before long it will fully break out. Already, the sides of the geopolitical chess board are lining up as countries take sides. It’s now a matter of when, not if and who strikes first. You can thank in large measure Bill Clinton and Barack Obama for all of this. They have brought us to the brink of world war and now President Trump has impossible decisions to make. And he better make them soon. This game of nuclear chicken won’t end well.

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Foreign Affairs

State Department denies claims MBS involved in Khashoggi killing

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State Department denies claims MBS involved in Khashoggi killing

Yesterday, reports were flying across the news wire that the CIA had concluded Saudi Crown Prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman was involved in the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The State Department issued a statement today denying the claim, stating no conclusion has been reached.

My Take

This is a lie. The State Department has seen and heard the mountains of evidence. The various cover stories put forth by the Saudi government have been hollow and debunked. They aren’t investigating further. They’re simply buying time and hoping other stories will help sweep this one under the rug.

Either MBS is so incompetent and disrespected that members of his own team went behind his back to murder someone, or he gave the order. The fact that Saudi Arabia wants us to buy the “rogue killer” is absolutely pitiful.

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Economy

Pacific Rim summit highlights strained China-US relations

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Pacific Rim summit highlights strained China-US relations

PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea (AP) — A meeting of world leaders in Papua New Guinea has highlighted divisions between global powers the U.S. and China and a growing competition for influence in the usually neglected South Pacific.

The 21 nations at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Port Moresby struggled to bridge differences on issues such as trade protectionism and reforming the World Trade Organization, making it likely their final statement Sunday will be an anodyne document.

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence and China’s President Xi Jinping traded barbs in speeches on Saturday. Pence professed respect for Xi and China but also harshly criticized the world’s No. 2 economy for intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers and unfair trading practices.

In Port Moresby, the impact of China’s aid and loans is highly visible. But the U.S. and allies are countering with efforts to finance infrastructure in Papua New Guinea and other island states. The U.S. has also said it will be involved in ally Australia’s plan to develop a naval base with Papua New Guinea.

On Sunday, the U.S., New Zealand, Japan and Australia said they’d work with Papua New Guinea’s government to bring electricity to 70 percent of its people by 2030. Less than 20 percent have a reliable electricity supply.

“The commitment of the United States of America to this region of the world has never been stronger,” said Pence at a signing ceremony. A separate statement from his office said other countries are welcome to join the electrification initiative provided they support the U.S. vision of a free and open Pacific.

China, meanwhile, has promised $4 billion of finance to build the the first national road network in Papua New Guinea, among the least urbanised countries in the world.

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Foreign Affairs

The Saudi predicament requires radical changes in our foreign affairs positions

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Saudi predicament requires radical changes in our foreign affairs positions

The United States is at a foreign affairs crossroads. One of our most important allies in the most important region in the world is being led by a man that U.S. intelligence (and pretty much everybody else) believes ordered the murder of a journalist living in our nation and writing for one of its biggest news outlets. How can we reconcile between what’s right and what’s smart?

Further evidence was leaked today that Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, ordered the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul last month. The CIA concluded this based on multiple pieces of circumstantial evidence, including phone calls intercepted between Khashoggi and Mohammed’s brother assuring Khashoggi’s safety if he went to the Saudi consulate where was murdered.

CIA concludes Saudi crown prince ordered Jamal Khashoggi’s assassination

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/cia-concludes-saudi-crown-prince-ordered-jamal-khashoggis-assassination/2018/11/16/98c89fe6-e9b2-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html?utm_term=.718b2d26599cThe CIA’s conclusion about Mohammed’s role was also based on the agency’s assessment of the prince as the country’s de facto ruler who oversees even minor affairs in the kingdom. “The accepted position is that there is no way this happened without him being aware or involved,” said a U.S. official familiar with the CIA’s conclusions.

Among the intelligence assembled by the CIA is an audio recording from a listening device that the Turks placed inside the Saudi consulate, according to the people familiar with the matter. The Turks gave the CIA a copy of that audio, and the agency’s director, Gina Haspel, has listened to it.

This is much more complicated than deciding whether or not to punish Mohammed. The stakes are unfathomably high, including balance of power in the Middle East, a potential oil crisis that could cripple the world economy, and the future of a peace plan between Israel and the Palestinians.

Unfortunately, what’s right and what’s smart are diametrically opposed in this situation.

What’s right?

Every ounce of evidence points to the near-certainty that Mohammed bin Salman ordered the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. He was a permanent residence of the United States who lived in Virginia and worked at the Washington Post. While not a citizen, he lawfully earned the right to fall under our nation’s protections.

The right thing to do is to condemn the Crown Prince, even if that will irreversibly damage our relationship with Saudi Arabia.

What’s smart?

Based on the current geopolitical status quo, Saudi Arabia is our best proxy to keep Iran in check in the Middle East. They are also the reason the dollar is still the world’s reserve currency despite efforts by Russia, China, and other nations to change that. This status allows the dollar to maintain artificial stability. There are many factors in play that could cripple the dollar if Saudi Arabia and OPEC started dealing in other currencies, bur national debt alone would be enough to catastrophically collapse our entire economy if the world had the means to turn its collective back on us.

Saudi Arabia and the so-called “petrodollar” is the force that maintains the illusion of stability.

The arms we sell Saudi Arabia account for a substantial chunk of revenue and jobs in the United States, but more importantly it gives them the technological edge they need over Iran. If the Saudis turn to Russia or China, our influence over the region would diminish greatly.

The smart thing to do is to sweep this under the rug. Throw symbolic punishment at some sacrificial Saudi lambs and move on.

Time for change

There is no way to do what’s right and still do what’s smart, so it would seem the White House has to pick between the two.

Perhaps they don’t. Perhaps there’s a third option.

Even if we do the “right” thing by condemning Saudi Arabia Mohammed, ties will not deteriorate immediately. There will be a wind down during which time the Saudis will be looking for other partners and the Americans will be trying to salvage the relationship.

What if we didn’t? What if we acknowledged for the first time that Saudi Arabia is more than just the country that murdered Khashoggi. Their human rights record is atrocious. They have directly or indirectly harmed the United States for years, including a significant role in terrorist attacks. They spread Wahhabism across the world. If you haven’t heard much about Wahhabism, it’s because the radical Islamic sect that drives the House of Saud is protected from media scrutiny. See Network, which only partially satirizes the influence the Saudis have on U.S. media.

Saudi Arabia is a horrible ally. They’re necessary because we’ve made them necessary, but if we drastically cut budgets and spending, the economic ramifications of a break with them would be mitigated. It’s time to make deals with nations that do not smile at us in public and subvert us in private. Nations that do not like us, including Brazil and Venezuela, could be brought under our wing to replace Saudi Arabia on the oil front. It’s unimaginable now, but we live in fast-moving times.

Also, build the Keystone XL pipeline.

As for stability in the Middle East, it’s time we go all-in with Israel. They are the only true democracy and the one nation in the Middle East we can count on to not stab us in the back. They are capable of being the check against Iran. Abandon all talks of a two-state solution, work with Israel as our primary proxy in the Middle East, and make Saudi Arabia turn to others for support.

All of this sounds dangerous because, well, it is. The dominoes that will fall when we take drastic measures against Saudi Arabia will be painful. But there’s one thing to consider before balking at this. We may be heading in this direction already. The difference is it wouldn’t be us initiating (and therefore prepared for) these changes. Saudi Arabia has been quietly seeking a better deal for decades. They haven’t found it yet, but someday they will. When that happens, they’ll pull the rug out from under us.

We should be the ones pulling the rug. If we’re not, the permanent repercussions will be devastating.

Radical change in our foreign affairs stance is long overdue. Saudi Arabia is the worst kind of ally to rely upon, not just because of Khashoggi but because of everything else they’ve done. None of this seems feasible now, but it may be the only path forward.

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