In the 1970s, so-called experts sounded the alarm about overpopulation. Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb warned that the planet would soon become too crowded to sustain humanity. Obviously, those predictions proved false. Now, the real crisis is the opposite: a global population collapse.
A study published in the Lancet medical journal has predicted that the world’s population will fall for the first time in centuries. According to the study, by 2050, three quarters of countries across the world will be below replacement rate, meaning they cannot sustain their population size. Most countries already have birth rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Countries like South Korea (1.12), Italy (1.03), and Japan (1.4) are experiencing some of the steepest declines. Even the United States is below replacement at 1.78 children per woman.
Why is this happening? Social and cultural shifts are at the heart of the issue. Many younger people are delaying or avoiding marriage and parenthood altogether. Economic pressures, career ambitions, and a focus on personal freedom are driving this trend. Additionally, climate anxiety is contributing to a growing belief that having children is irresponsible or unsustainable.
The consequences of population decline are profound:
- Economic strain: Fewer workers will mean slower growth, higher taxes, and increased pressure on social support systems.
- Labor shortages: Key industries like healthcare, education, and infrastructure could struggle to find enough workers.
- Aging populations: A larger share of elderly people will put more pressure on healthcare and retirement systems.
- Loss of innovation: Fewer young people means fewer new ideas and less technological advancement. […]
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