By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank Is the wealth effect being substituted?
Summary China’s real estate market suffered heavy losses early this year while stock market investors continue to face huge uncertainty.
This will add to the deterioration of household balances and as such could influence private domestic (consumer) demand.
While the wealth effect predicts a deterioration of consumption, the substitution effect would predict the exact opposite. This paper concludes that the substitution effect is more likely in the case of real estate. This could be explained by the fact that housing is still expensive despite declining housing prices while at the same time wages are suppressed and youth unemployment is high. But more explanations (like prepayment risks) could be given for the positive correlation between housing prices and the savings ratio. Introduction The new year in China kicked off with […]
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Controlling Protein Is One of the Globalists’ Primary Goals
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