(DCNF)—House Republicans’ quest to preserve their slim majority will likely be dependent on the outcomes of four New York races with GOP incumbents in previously pro-Biden districts engaged in tough reelection fights.
Democrats need to flip just four Republican-held seats to retake control of the House, and party operatives are zeroing in on a group of freshman lawmakers representing competitive New York districts as prime pick-up opportunities. Though these Republican incumbents have faced voter registration and fundraising deficits in addition to running in a presidential election year that could see increased turnout, the campaigns and GOP operatives are optimistic that all of the Republican incumbent candidates in tight races will prevail on election day, according to interviews with campaign officials and written statements given to the Daily Caller News Foundation.
The incumbents — New York Republican Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams — must also overcome another challenge: President Joe Biden won the districts they represent by comfortable margins in 2020. Each candidate won by less than five points during the 2022 midterms, which saw New York Republican candidates make historic gains.
In D’Esposito’s Long Island district, Biden beat former President Donald Trump by more than 14 points in 2020, making the district the most pro-Biden seat in the country held by a Republican running for reelection.
In 2022, D’Esposito won New York’s fourth district by a four-point margin against his opponent, former Hempstead Town supervisor Laura Gillen, with the two set for a rematch in November. A Siena College poll from Oct. 13-17 showed Gillen ahead by 12 points in the contest.
D’Esposito’s campaign argued to the DCNF that the Siena College poll has “fundamental flaws” because the polling occurred during the Jewish holiday of Sukkot and failed to get an accurate sample of Jewish voters, which the campaign believes overwhelmingly support him.
“In a district with a large Jewish population, the pollster interviewed people during significant Jewish holy days. In fact, a large segment of the Jewish population don’t use electronic devices at this time. If Siena’s numbers were even close to accurate, Democrats would not be spending tens of millions of dollars to defeat D’Esposito while totally neglecting a statistical dead heat (according to Siena’s data) in the adjacent district, NY-1,” Matt Capp, spokesman for the D’Esposito campaign, added.
A poll conducted between Oct. 11 and 19 by Gotham Polling & Analytics has D’Esposito up by one point, with 6% of voters undecided. Capp told the DCNF that local opposition to the influx of migrants in New York City, the recently-tabled congestion pricing program and offshore wind are keeping this district in play for Republicans.
“The New York races have the advantage in that the Democratic Party has almost destroyed the state,” New York Republican consultant Bill O’Reilly told the DCNF. “We’re feeling it in taxes, in crime, in the migrant chaos.”
“There’s a built-in inclination to go Republican this time,” O’Reilly added.
Gillen has also outraised D’Esposito by more than $700,000, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission. Cook Political Report designates the race as a “toss-up.”
O’Reilly pointed to Lawler as the candidate most likely to prevail among the four incumbents despite running in a district that Biden won by more than ten points in 2020 and being outraised by roughly $1.3 million by his opponent, former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones of New York, according to FEC filings. O’Reilly served as the spokesperson for Lawler’s 2022 campaign.
“He has worked that district incredibly hard. He’s a classic example of someone who’s differentiated himself,” O’Reilly told the DCNF. “He’s a bipartisan guy. He works hard, he talks to everybody. He’s in the district like he said. He’s done the work to make himself known.”
Despite the most recent independent polling showing Lawler up by just one point, O’Reilly told the DCNF that Lawler’s internal polling has the candidate up by higher margins. The Cook Political Report changed the rating from “toss-up” to “lean Republican” on Oct. 25.
O’Reilly also told the DCNF that Lawler’s condemnation of anti-Israel protests at Columbia University over the past year and support for Israel in the country’s war against Hamas is likely to pay dividends in a district that has one of the highest percentages of Jewish voters in the country.
“Jewish voters in the 17th Congressional District and across the country will have a decisive impact on how elections play out across the country,” Chris Russell, spokesman for Lawler’s campaign, told the DCNF. “Orthodox, Reform, Conservative and Hasidic voters all want a few basic things in life — safe neighborhoods, good schools and a strong economy. Republicans provide winning arguments on all of those issues, and that’s why Jewish voters will be supporting candidates like Mike Lawler this November.”
Roll Call designated Williams as the most vulnerable member of the House running for reelection due to redistricting changes that made the Republican incumbent’s central New York district more Democratic. He leads his opponent, New York state senator John Mannion, by one point in the Williams campaign’s most recent internal poll. The Cook Political Report designates the race as “lean Democrat.”
Taylor Weyneth, a Williams campaign official, told the DCNF that their focus is not on the presidential ticket but on Albany and the “disastrous policies” pushed by state Democratic lawmakers and signed into law by New York governor Kathy Hochul.
“We’re running against Albany because we’re running against a New York state senator who was there for all of these disastrous policy decisions and has to own that record,” Weyneth told the DCNF. “Our opponent — he voted to give taxpayer-funded free health care to illegal immigrants and called voters ‘ignorant’ for being concerned about the migrant crisis impacting their community.”
Weyneth also told the DCNF that the campaign is feeling optimistic due to strong early voting numbers from registered Republicans. “We’re feeling confident and onward to victory,” Weyneth added.
O’Reilly described Molinaro, the 2018 New York Republican nominee for governor who now represents the Hudson Valley, as a “fighter.” Molinaro is currently in a brutal reelection contest and trails his Democratic opponent, Josh Riley, by four points in the latest polling. Molinaro beat Riley by less than two points in 2022.
The Molinaro-Riley rematch is the most expensive House race in New York, with more than $25 million worth of political ads on track to air.
“This race is about priorities,” Molinaro told the DCNF. “I’m for securing our border and putting Upstate New Yorkers first, my opponent Josh Riley supports keeping the border open and giving taxpayer-funded perks like credit cards and hotels to illegal immigrants.”
The Cook Political Report rates Molinaro’s reelection bid as a “toss-up.”
New York House Republicans, led by Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, are also trying to flip a competitive seat in the mid-Hudson Valley held by Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan.
The Republican candidate, Alison Esposito, ran as the Republican nominee for New York’s lieutenant governor in 2022. The most recent independent polling from early October shows Esposito trailing Ryan by five points. The projected outcome for the Esposito-Ryan contest is “lean-Democrat,” according to Cook Political Report.
“Alison’s message of supporting law enforcement, securing our border, creating jobs, strengthening the economy, and defending our allies is resonating across NY-18,” Ben Weiner, spokesman for the Esposito campaign, told the DCNF. “Since beginning our campaign over a year ago, we’ve heard from Hudson Valley residents across the district who are ready for change. They know Pat Ryan is on the wrong side of every issue and are ready to send a common sense leader to D.C. That’s why Alison is surging in the polls and within striking distance of Pat Ryan.
“We are confident that we have the momentum and the winning message to flip NY-18 and secure a victory on election night,” Weiner added.
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Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
