The title question is one posed this week by Jeffrey Anderson at American Mind. It caught my attention because it’s a topic that I’ve been dwelling on increasingly as the latest presidential polling continues to confound me. Rarely in my lifetime have I observed a presidential election that seemed to be such a clear, obvious choice based simply on the conditions on the ground around the country. And yet the polls remain incredibly tight, shifting back and forth by small amounts from week to week. What’s driving these voters to walk a tightrope in this fashion? Anderson speculates that we are living in a unique time in political terms (that’s putting it mildly) and it all comes down to whether voters are more concerned with issues or intangibles. He notes that both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have some of the lowest approval ratings among candidates in the modern era. So is this really a race to determine who is less popular than the other person? And can Kamala Harris climb out from under the shadow of Joe Biden and somehow convince voters that she bears no responsibility for the policies of her boss and now represents a breath of fresh air?
No presidential race in the past half-century has featured a major party nominee who didn’t enter a single primary, an incumbent president who exited the race before November, a former president looking to regain office, or an assassination attempt. This strange 2024 campaign has now featured all four. It would hardly be surprising, then, if many voters are feeling a sense of disorientation akin to stumbling off of a dizzying carnival ride.
Amidst this chaos, however, some fundamentals remain. This election pits a very unpopular presidency (per RealClearPolitics, the current administration has a minus 15-point net approval rating, by far the worst in year four of a 21st-century presidency) against a relatively unpopular former president (per RCP, Donald Trump has a minus nine-point net favorability rating). The election-deciding question, therefore, might well be this one: Which entity are voters more eager to sweep away from the American political scene: the Joe Biden (and Kamala Harris) administration or Donald Trump?
The answer to that question, in turn, may well come down to whether voters are thinking more about issues or about intangibles when they cast their ballots. Relatedly, it may well come down to whether they view Vice President Kamala Harris as a key player in the Biden-Harris Administration or as fresh new blood. […]
— Read More: hotair.com
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