We’re still 16 months from election day 2024 but there are already signs that this coming election will mimic many of the conditions that led to Donald Trump’s surprising victory in 2016.
The electoral college is looking almost exactly the same at this point, with red states staying red, blue states remaining blue, and toss-up states still being toss-ups. Beyond that, the dynamics of the race are similar to 2016 as well; both major candidates have approval ratings underwater and there’s great dissatisfaction with the major party choices.
This could lead to a third-party candidate drawing enough votes away from one candidate in critical states to hand the electoral college victory to either Trump or Biden. In 2016, Green Party candidate Jill Stein won only a little over 1% of the vote nationwide, but her totals in battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — the three decisive […]
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