President Trump Tweeted about the economy this morning, as he often does, pointing to negotiations with China to end the trade war. In the Tweets, the President pointed out two important facts that should give him the upper-hand as the world’s two largest economies work to overcome the current trade impasse.
First, he noted that if China is waiting on doing a deal in hopes the Democrats win the White House in 2020, 16 months is a long time to try to hold out considering the strain the trade war is having on China’s economy.
Second, he warned that if they don’t do a deal and wait for his second term, the negotiations will be much harder for them since the President will not be hampered by an upcoming election. It was reminiscent of President Obama telling a Russian official he’d have “more flexibility after the election.” The difference is President Obama was caught on a hot mic trying to be sneaky about his proclamation. President Trump is sending China the message in public.
….And then, think what happens to China when I win. Deal would get MUCH TOUGHER! In the meantime, China’s Supply Chain will crumble and businesses, jobs and money will be gone!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2019
These are both reasonable threats. China has already shown signs of struggling in ways the United States has not. We’re generally the consumer while they’re the supplier, and it’s always easier to find sellers than buyers. This makes the trade war less consequential to the United States in the long-term.
There have been signals sent from Beijing that they’re ready to hammer out a deal, but it’s always hard to tell what’s serious and what’s simply posturing by the Communist government. Signals or no signals, the deal won’t be solid until they sign it and take actions to properly implement it.
One of Captain America’s catch-phrases in the Marvel movies was, “I can do this all day.” This seems to be the sentiment President Trump is sending to Beijing. They must decide if they can wait it out or if they need to make a deal now.
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