Former Vice President Joe Biden’s presidential campaign is essentially over despite being the clear frontrunner. Even following a stronger debate performance than his first, he’s already showing signs of fatigue that we haven’t seen this early in a candidate for as long as I can remember. At this stage, he seems to have the energy that Hillary Clinton had around October of 2016, a month before the election.
But Biden’s showing signs of not being able to handle the attacks well. And they’re going to keep coming. He was better prepared for Kamala Harris and the rest of the field in this debate, ready with talking points and oppo research. He even had a keyword to direct people towards, “1000 prisoner free, Kamala Harris,” in Google searches. His hope was to get people to see the hypocrisy of Harris’s current stance as a social justice warrior compared to her recent past when she was a law-and-order California District Attorney.
He was owned by Cory Booker. He was embarrassed by Bill de Blasio. He did well against Kirsten Gillibrand, but even then he came across as a bully. It seems like no matter what Biden says, his more-progressive competitors want to hang the sins of his Senatorial past as well as President Obama’s less-woke policies around Biden’s neck before throwing him overboard.
Keep in mind, this is not the view of some Republican shill who hopes the “moderate” former Vice President doesn’t get the nomination. This is the perspective of someone who believes very firmly that Biden would be the easiest of the five frontrunners to defeat in the general election. His charisma has taken a nosedive since his days as Vice President; the once vibrant 73-year-old who passed on running in 2016 has become a tired 76-year-old who seems even less interested in running than he did before. President Trump would eat him alive.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear the President will have that opportunity. If Biden was going to win the nomination, he’d be up by 30 points by now. Why? Because he’s the only viable “moderate” against a sea of radical progressives. Elizabeth Warren, Harris, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg are all splitting the progressive vote, yet they’re still scoring in double digits on most polls. That doesn’t bode well for Biden who isn’t competing against other frontrunners as much as he’s competing against his own party’s leftward lurch towards socialism.
There’s still a chance the party’s Establishment will step in and start tipping the scales in his direction, but they’d have to do it quietly. They already played that hand by giving Hillary Clinton he 2016 nomination despite Sanders having enough momentum and grassroots support to overtake her. If they do it again conspicuously, the radical progressives will not stand for it. There will be a revolution like the one the Justice Democrats have been hoping for by promoting “The Squad,” only this revolution will reverberate across the party. The only way to prevent (delay?) this from happening is for the DNC to seem unbiased throughout the nomination process. Even then, it’s only a matter of time before the Establishment becomes the minority voice in the party.
For Biden to be falling in the polls at this stage is a very bad sign. At this stage in the 2015-16 cycle, Scott Walker and Jeb Bush were still in the lead. Then-candidate Trump was moving up quickly, but he didn’t take firm hold of the polls until around the end of 2015. Even Ben Carson led for a few polls before spectacularly nose-diving. Biden’s slow but consistent fall at this stage means he’s probably already done.
He just doesn’t know it yet.
Joe Biden will not be the nominee for the Democrats. I suspected this to be true before, but now I am certain. He doesn’t have an upside; all the moderates are with him. There just aren’t many moderates left in the Democratic Party.
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