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My not-so-hot take on the Illinois tax debacle

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Government cannot spend its way out of trouble. That’s an absolute truth that has been clearly demonstrated time and again, yet we see politicians at every level from local to national continuing to push untenable budgets and asinine tax hikes on the people. The latest example is Illinois and this time it’s more than the usual suspects behind the debacle.

Republican lawmakers jumped ship and backed an override of their own party’s governor’s veto of the latest budget that calls for increased taxes. This lack of backbone has become a calling card for the modern GOP as so many today seem willing to break from the old school ideology of smaller government in order to play along with their liberal counterparts. The fear of government shutdowns, credit failures, and election day repercussions have pushed the GOP away from conservative and Federalist fundamentals.

Instead of giving into the Democratic majority’s demands for more government, these Republicans should have backed their governor’s play. He wasn’t asking for much, just term limits and a handful of other responsible actions included in the extremely liberal and oppressive budget plan. They should have forced further turmoil and continued to offer real solutions instead of backing down from fear of another budget-free fiscal year. That’s the problem with the modern Republican Party. They don’t play within their alleged ideologies. Instead, they’re constantly attempting in vain to mitigate damage both real and political.

In the vast majority of situations, the best solution is to reduce taxes, dramatically cut budgets, and put emphasis on supporting the private sector to solve problems. We the People are more capable than government entities to solve our own problems, but the Democratic-Republicans of modern day America seem bent on convincing us otherwise.

Here’s the biggest problem: it’s working. More Americans are becoming dependent on government rather than being reliant on self-governance. Fewer Americans are attempting to solve problems and are instead spending their time demanding action from politicians. This more than anything else is why the Federalist Party must rise. We’re losing the battle of independence by pushing off our responsibilities to people and entities who have no business participating in finding the right solutions. The indoctrination and propaganda machines of the left have infiltrated many politicians on the right. Today’s Republicans are looking more like mid-90s Democrats than the party that once believed in shrinking government.

Illinois, as with so many Democrat-run states, is crumbling under the weight of its own failed fiscal policies. They don’t need a bailout. They shouldn’t be raising taxes. They need to cut, cut, and cut some more. They need fewer programs, lower taxes, and an elimination of the overreach that has plagued them for decades if they hope to recover. Instead, the Democratic-Republicans are going against their fiscally responsible governor in order to push more of the same tired leftist agenda.

The only real solution is less government and Illinois is a clear example of a state that has proven this to be true by failing miserably with big government. Will they learn the lesson in time? We are actively recruiting a strong leadership team in Illinois to bring the battle to Springfield. Email us at smallgov@thefederalistparty.org if you’re interested.

Christian, husband, father. EIC, NOQ Report. Co-Founder, the Federalist Party. Just a normal guy who will no longer sit around while the country heads in the wrong direction.

Economy

Trump expects Harley to lose money on his behalf one way or the other

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Trump expects Harley to lose money on his behalf one way or the other

American motorcycle motorcycle manufacturer Harley Davidson is in a tough spot. Tariffs imposed from Europe against imported motorcycles in response to President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum have forced Harley to consider moving some production to Europe to avoid the tariffs. It’s a fair response, but the President is having none of it.

He has ratcheted up calls to boycott Harley over the potential move.

It’s imperative for President Trump’s reelection that these tariffs work. If they have the expected effect of bringing some jobs back while pushing others away, then they will be painted by the media as a failure. He knows this and therefore must do everything he can to keep jobs in America even if it means painting one of the most beloved American companies as the bad guys.

Trump backs boycott of Harley Davidson in steel tariff dispute

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-harley-davidson-tariffs-trump/trump-backs-boycott-of-harley-davidson-in-steel-tariff-dispute-idUSKBN1KX0J9The Wisconsin-based motorcycle manufacturer announced a plan earlier this year to move production of motorcycles for the European Union from the United States to its overseas facilities to avoid the tariffs imposed by the trading bloc in retaliation for Trump’s duties on steel and aluminum imports.

In response, Trump has criticized Harley Davidson, calling for higher, targeted taxes and threatening to lure foreign producers to the United States to increase competition.

My Take

What does he expect them to do? They will lose tens of millions of dollars if they continue to try to export motorcycles to Europe. They will lose even more if they stop selling motorcycles in Europe. If they try to mitigate the damage by moving some operations to Europe, the President wants them to lose money as a result. This, too, will likely result in cuts to the workforce.

In other words, President Trump will make certain Harley Davidson, an iconic American company, loses money and cuts American jobs no matter which direction they go. If he has an alternative for them that does not hurt Americans, I’m sure they’re all ears.

Most tariffs are bad in the 21st century. It’s impractical to believe we can maintain our supremacy as the world’s consumer if we continue to slap tariffs on some of our best trading partners. He either lacks the understanding of how this all works or has chosen to ignore the facts for the sake of spinning it for votes when his term concludes.

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Economy

Tariffs on Turkey: Bad for the economy but damaging to a dangerous dictator

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Tariffs on Turkey Bad for the economy but damaging to a dangerous dictator

Say what you will about President Trump’s foreign and economic policies. Whether you support them or not, it’s hard to deny that they’ve made things much more interesting.

The latest move by the President to impose stiff tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum may seem in line with how he’s been treating the national and world economies recently, but more is at stake with this move than previous ones.

There are two factors at play that make this move different from previous tariffs. First, it is not purely economic but is a response to Turkey continuing to hold pastor Andrew Brunson for allegedly supporting the coup attempt of 2016. Second, the tariffs come at a time when Turkey’s currency, the lira, is in free fall.

It was already starting to show signs of failure when leaders from both countries pushed it even further down. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan added more challenges for the lira when he asked his people to convert their foreign currency and gold, a sign of trouble that will likely have the opposite effect.

Erdogan calls on Turks to convert hard currency, gold into lira

https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey-economy-currency-erdogan/erdogan-calls-on-turks-to-convert-hard-currency-gold-into-lira-idUSA4N1TM024Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Friday called on citizens to convert their hard currency and gold into lira, after the local currency tumbled to a record low this week, reflecting investor concern about a widening diplomatic rift with the United States.

Erdogan, in a speech in Ankara, also said Turkey was diverting to the Chinese market to overcome what he said were “subjective evaluations” from ratings agencies. Erdogan has repeatedly railed against credit raters, saying their downgrades of Turkey’s sovereign debt to “junk” status were politically motivated.

Seizing on the free fall, President Trump made matters worse for for the lira with the sanctions:

Trump authorizes doubling of metals tariffs on Turkey

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/10/trump.html“I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!” Trump wrote.

Losses in the the Turkish lira deepened on Trump’s tweet, falling as much as 20 percent vs. the U.S. dollar in Friday trading.

Erdogan is now calling this an economic war with the United States and claims he will not back down. Meanwhile, the Euro and other currencies are also feeling the heat:

Euro tumbles as investors fear bank exposures to Turkey

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-global-forex/euro-whacked-on-turkey-turmoil-as-investors-scramble-for-safety-idUSKBN1KV07M“You’ve had a fairly sharp move lower in the euro and it’s broken through key technical levels as well,” said Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac Banking Corp in New York.

The euro dropped below technical support at $1.15 to $1.1421, down 0.91 percent on the day and the lowest since July 2017. Against the yen, the euro slid 1 percent to 126.79 yen, a two-month low.

Now, the criticism and praise of President Trump’s moves will be debated for days, maybe weeks.

My Take

As I’ve stated on many occasions, I’m not a fan of tariffs. They are misunderstood by most, particularly the President, and no longer yield the results they did in previous centuries. From an economic perspective, I oppose this move.

The bigger picture is how this is being used as a pressure tactic against Turkey. Currently, I like it a lot. That opinion could change based on how things go, but moves like these that apply pressure against a dangerous dictator of the false ally that Turkey has become are welcome. It isn’t just about securing Brunson’s release, though that’s extremely important. Turkey is a rising power on every spectrum that is increasingly turning to Russia and China for help instead of their “friends” in NATO.

The strategic importance of Turkey as a hub that connects Europe, west Asia, and the Middle East cannot be understated. In an ideal situation, Turkey would still be a good ally as they once were. Erdogan has taken advantage of two past U.S. Presidents and seemed poised last year to start taking advantage of President Trump. That doesn’t seem to be happening anymore.

Is this the right way to handle Erdogan? Probably not. Whether it is or not will be revealed in coming weeks. One thing is certain: we’re seeing things being done from the White House that we’ve never seen before and may never see again. It’s troubling, but at least it’s entertaining.

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Economy

Can Trump keep Element Electronics from closing a South Carolina plant over tariffs?

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Can Trump keep Element Electronics from closing a South Carolina plant over tariffs

For full transparency, I’m not a fan of tariffs. I know that in the end it’s not the target countries or their companies but rather the American consumers who pay for these tariffs in the form of higher prices. It’s also American countries who rely on imports to thrive that get hurt. An example of the latter is Element Electronics, the last US assembler of televisions.

According to The Hill, layoffs are planned to start in October.

South Carolina manufacturer says it’s closing plant over Trump tariffs

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/400761-south-carolina-manufacturer-says-its-closing-plant-over-trump-tariffsElement said “the layoff and closure is a result of the new tariffs that were recently and unexpectedly imposed on many goods imported from China, including the key television components used in our assembly operations in Winnsboro,” in a letter to the state’s Department of Employment and Workforce obtained by the local paper.

The company said in the letter that it hopes the closure will be temporary and added that it could reopen the plant in “three to six months, but we cannot predict this with any certainty at this time.”

This puts the administration in a pickle. Perhaps it’s better to look at it as a catch-22. They could exclude the parts needed by Element from the tariff list and save the jobs. Doing so could signal to other US companies affected by the tariffs to threaten closures and layoffs in hopes the White House will also exclude the parts and materials they import.

If the President sticks to his guns, he will gain the benefits associated with tariffs such as expanded use of domestic materials and the potential for jobs to be created in America. Of course, he’ll also have to face media backlash for every negative effect of the tariffs, including Element Electronics’ challenge.

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