Election watchers woke up to a shock on Sunday after The New York Times and Sienna College released a poll that changed the perception of the presidential race.
Kamala Harris, who entered the race in July after pushing Joe Biden aside, has been leading most polls with the conventional wisdom being that she held a slim if not durable lead. According to this latest survey, though, Trump is beating Harris in both the head-to-head and multi-candidate field.
🚨NEW POLL🚨
New York Times Poll of Likely Voters
Trump 48%
Harris 47%Conducted from Sept. 3 to 6, n = 1,695 pic.twitter.com/lUlwKojBL8
— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) September 8, 2024
🇺🇲 National poll by NYT/Siena crosstabs
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 47%
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Full Ballot
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 45%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
Crosstabs
• Biden 2020 voters: Harris 92-6%
• Trump 2020 voters: Trump 97-2%
• Did not vote in 2020: Trump 49-40%
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• Men:… pic.twitter.com/jtPBwxRIBq— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 8, 2024
No doubt some will try, but anyone who tries to pick apart those crosstabs, which are listed in the second post above, is just going to look desperate. I’m firmly against “un-skewing polls” and crosstab-truthing. I think you take a poll for what it is, add its topline to the average, and move on. When anyone starts to ripping apart crosstabs and trying to “re-weight” a poll, they are playing with fire and setting themselves up for disappointment. […]
— Read More: redstate.com
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