Today saw wage inflation rising faster than hoped (hawkish for Fed) and consumer confidence worsened (with inflation expectations jumping ).
Not exactly a great way to end the month.
But, as Financial Conditions tightened for the 3rd straight month in October, they failed to spook the economy …
Source: Bloomberg Alongside a growing realization that the US was not in imminent danger of slipping into recession (and was in fact achieving one of its strongest growth quarters in the past 20 years), came another leg up in rates. And, as Goldman’s Chris Hussey notes, as investor consensus around sustained US growth rises, the expectation that the Fed will soon need to CUT rates falls . And if the Fed is not going to cut rates in 2024 as much as many had previously anticipated, then rates may need to rise further towards the ultra-short term yield of the Fed Funds […]
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