Today’s jobs data was so ugly, not even the Biden admin had anything positive to say about it.
For those who missed our recap, this is what we found just superficially: nonfarm payrolls slowed by more than expected; the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, up 0.5% from April and triggering Sahm’s Rule countdown to a recession , and average hourly earnings were mixed with sequential rising less than expected.
But it’s what was hiding below the surface that was truly horrific.
Let’s start at the top. 1. Nonfarm Payrolls printed at just 150K, below the 180K expected, down by 50% from the (downward revised) September print of 297K and the second lowest since the Covid crash/lockdown. 2. Atrocious job composition. Not only was the quantity of jobs poor, the quality (or composition) was absolutely atrocious: of the 150K jobs added in October, 51K, or more than a third was government […]
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