According to the most recent report from the federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 114,000 jobs (according to the establishment survey) during July. This was a lackluster number that came in below expectations, and it wasn’t enough to prevent a surge in the unemployment rate up to 4.3 percent. Moreover, the “underemployment” rate, the “U-6” unemployment rate, jumped substantially from 7.4 percent to 7.8 percent. Excluding the Covid Panic, that’s the largest year-over-year increase in U-6 since the Great Recession.
At the same time, the BEA’s other employment survey, the household survey, showed that the year-long stagnation in employment continued into July. According to the household survey, total employed persons in the United States increased by only 57,000 from July 2023 to July 2024—an increase of a mere 0.03 percent. Since September of last year, the number of employed persons has fallen by 284,000.
Moreover, the establishment survey continues to be suspect in light of the so-called “birth-death” model as well. This model is used to estimate how many new jobs were created by new businesses—i..e, “births”—that are missed by the actual survey results. The BLS says it must use “non-sampling methods” to add in these newly created jobs. “Non-sampling methods” means the numbers are made up by number crunchers. They don’t show up in any survey. In July, the establishment survey simply assumed the creation of 246,000 jobs. […]
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