Fresh polling data paints a grim picture for the Democratic Party and its hopes of retaining control of the Senate in 2024. Internal polling leaked from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) reveals key races in battleground states are leaning heavily toward Republican candidates, giving the GOP a clear path to reclaiming the upper chamber.
The memo obtained by POLITICO from October 13, and penned by NRSC strategist Jason Thielman, presents an overview of recent polling in major Senate races across the country. The results are encouraging for Republicans, showing competitive races in traditionally Democratic strongholds and giving their candidates a significant edge in states like Montana, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
In Montana, the polling data shows Republican Tim Sheehy pulling comfortably ahead of Democrat incumbent Jon Tester by eight points, with a 50% to 42% lead. Sheehy’s favorability has surged, with a net increase of 11 points since July. In contrast, Tester’s approval rating has slipped underwater, with 48% of voters viewing him unfavorably. Tester, a long-time Democratic stalwart, now faces dwindling opportunities to reshape his image, with only 1% of voters unaware of him and just 5% holding no opinion.
Ohio’s Senate race also indicates trouble for Democrats, with Republican Bernie Moreno holding a slim 2-point lead over Democrat incumbent Sherrod Brown. Moreno’s rise comes alongside strong support for Donald Trump in the state, where Trump leads Kamala Harris by 11 points in the presidential race. Brown, once considered a Democratic powerhouse, now finds his favorability slipping, with 47% of Ohio voters holding an unfavorable view of him despite his record-high spending of over $25 million in this race. […]
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