Historian Niall Ferguson said former President Donald Trump is going to win the Republican nomination and will beat Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election.
Ferguson detailed the historical data that led him to his conclusion in an article in The Spectator. Biden and Trump have low overall approval ratings but Trump polls much better on the economy. Ferguson said:
“What this suggests to me is that Joe Biden is in serious danger of following Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush into the bin marked ‘one-term presidents’. Why?
“For the simple reason that no president since Calvin Coolidge a century ago has secured re-election if a recession has occurred in the two years before the nation votes.“It does not need to be as severe as the Great Depression that destroyed Herbert Hoover’s presidency. A plain vanilla recession will suffice.“In the 12 months through March, total bank credit in the US […]
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