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Top Economist Warns Regulators Face ‘Mission Impossible’ Amid Inflation, Recession Risks

by Liam Cosgrove
April 12, 2023
in Opinions
Nouriel Roubini (1)

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Economist and New York University professor Nouriel Roubini, often referred to as “Doctor Doom” for his pessimistic economic forecasts, said the Federal Reserve is facing “Mission Impossible” as inflation remains persistent and fissures appear in the banking sector.

Speaking at Semafor’s World Economy Summit on Wednesday, Roubini expressed concerns about the fragility of the banking sector, citing a multitude of factors that could lead to a severe financial crisis. Global debt levels, artificial intelligence-induced job losses, growing radicalism, wealth inequality, and escalating geopolitical tensions were just a few of the categories he listed.

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In short, financial regulators may be trapped in a box.

“When inflation is too high, if you raise rates, you risk causing a hard landing,” he said, outlining the Fed’s dilemma. “Forget about jobs; if you don’t raise [rates] enough, then the risk is a de-anchor of inflation.”

Roubini particularly emphasized the risks of mounting debt levels in both developed and developing economies as well as in the private and public domains. He argued that massive debt accumulation, particularly by governments and corporations, has reached unsustainable levels and cannot be supported in an environment of higher interest rates.

According to the professor emeritus, combined public and private debt in advanced economies was roughly 100 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the 1970s. Today that number is 420 percent, he said.

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An over-indebted economy means each subsequent rate hike by the Fed adds a greater financial burden on borrowers to make interest payments. However, inflation—which came in at 5 percent annually on Wednesday—continues to chip away at the income of lower and middle-class households.

On China, Roubini warned that the accelerated decoupling of the United States and China poses another financial stability risk, particularly in America.

“This Cold War between the U.S. and China is becoming colder by the day,” he said. “The Chinese realize, ‘if I owe you a billion is my problem for you, a trillion is my problem,’ and they want to diversify from dollar assets.”

Ultimately, he acknowledged that both nations face considerable challenges, with China facing a rapidly declining population and increasingly aggressive authoritarianism.


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Article cross-posted from our premium news partners at The Epoch Times.

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  • W. Joseph Stroupe says:
    April 13, 2023 at 4:02 am

    All very true – Roubini is spot on.

    Regarding China’s being at risk because of its $850 billion in T-bill holdings, I think this is over-emphasized. China is actively working ‘feverishly’ to cause a dollar collapse as it and Russia push for a new reserve currency along with their BRICS partners. I ask myself why China would seek to accelerate the dollar’s demise if it felt it was at serious risk of losing that $850 billion?

    I think the answer is that China knows that when the dollar goes into a downward spiral – soon now, perhaps even as early as this year – China’s holdings will re-balance, with its non-dollar holdings rising in value as its dollar holdings collapse in value. Think about it. When the dollar collapses other currencies such as the yuan, ruble, rupee, etc will rise in value because they will be seen as non-dollar havens. Gold will rise dramatically that’s why China et al is massively increasing gold holdings. The collapse of the dollar and euro will be dramatically accompanied by an increase in value of non-dollar holdings, and this re-balance effect immunizes China against painful consequences of the dollar collapse.

    China claims to hold about 2,000 tons of gold, but, many experts believe its holdings are double that – 4,000 tons. If China has 4,000 tons of gold, worth today about $250 billion, when the dollar collapses to 1/3 of its current value, gold will likely rise 3-fold in value. There is the rebalancing effect, as China’s 4,000 tons of gold would become about $750 billion in value. The increase in value of its other non-dollar holdings would work to preserve China’s $3 trillion reserves, perhaps even increasing them above that mark.

    So China, for example, is in a good position to weather a dollar collapse. Its other partners are working toward the same position in their reserves – you can bet on that.

    This all illustrates why individuals need to be holding physical gold and silver to prepare for the dollar’s ugly future, too.

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