Lamentations that the waves of innovation are receding have engulfed policy circles. Distinguished economist Robert Gordon avers that the days of transformative innovations are over. Like Peter Thiel, he is disappointed at the incremental nature of modern-day inventions. The declinist thesis is predicated on the assumption that groundbreaking innovations like the steam engine, electricity, and the telephone are becoming exceedingly rare. Educing evidence to prove this observation has been quite easy, but we are less astute at understanding why innovation is declining.
Article by Lipton Matthews from Mises.
In his 2012 paper titled “Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds,” Gordon submits that dwindling rates of educational attainment complemented by reductions in labor force participation portends doom for the future of US innovation. Educational attainment supplements economic growth and innovative activities, so Gordon is right to express concern. Yet researchers find that during the Industrial Revolution, literacy and schooling failed to exert a significant impact on economic growth.
Increasing educational attainment ensures that workers are positioned to employ sophisticated technologies. Indeed, education can indirectly nurture innovation by exposing citizens to divergent ways of thinking, thereby resulting in new products and services. Currently, highly successful countries like Singapore, Finland, and Canada possess educated citizens, though there are outliers like Japan and Russia with unimpressive records. However, the slump exhibited by these countries does not undercut the theory that there is a link between educational attainment and economic growth. The sluggish conduct of Japan and Russia is attributable to regulatory burdens, excess corruption in the latter, and a host of other structural hurdles. The capacity of an educated population to unlock growth is hinged on a panoply of variables ranging from institutional quality to culture.
However, the evidence revealing that Britain produced pathbreaking innovations in an era when most people were uneducated contradicts the proposition that widespread educational attainment is necessary for innovation and growth. In reality, during the industrial era in Britain and Europe more broadly innovations were determined by the prowess of upper tail human capital. This label describes highly intelligent people who demonstrate the competence to innovate.
Gordon’s measurements to gauge the likelihood of innovation are inadequate. Essentially, innovations reflect the priorities and aptitude of the cognitive elite. Research estimates that the smart fraction is mainly responsible for the majority of revolutionary developments in business and science. Evaluating the impact of the different classes on development, scholars observe that the smart fraction is crucial to progress: “The intellectual class has the greatest impact on economic growth followed by average ability citizens and the non-intellectual class in that order…. The impact of the intellectual class on technological progress is exceptionally more significant than even the number of professional researchers engaged in R&D activities, with average ability citizens and the non-intellectual class not significant.”
A perfect example is that during the Industrial Revolution, inventors scored highly on cognitive ability measured by the influence of their inventions, even though many lacked formal education. Moreover, a better illustration is the case of Steve Jobs, who started a superstar firm despite lacking IT credentials. Gordon’s perception that innovation is diminishing is accurate, but a concrete picture is absent in his analysis, because he is approaching the issue from the wrong angle.
Some attribute the decline in innovation to subpar levels of R&D productivity and others surmise that as a consequence innovations are getting harder to materialize. Undeniably, low productivity can impede the rate of innovation, but to ascertain the true state of innovation, researchers should study the pursuits of the smart fraction. WhatsApp, Twitter, and Facebook were created by cognitive elites. Though disruptive technologies, these are more reflective of lifestyle innovations than revolutionary inventions. These platforms have altered the political landscape; however, most people can easily get by without social media.
The ascent of social media illuminates the passion of cognitive elites. Cognitive elites recognize that to achieve stratospheric success in the present economy they must exploit the attention economy. Entrepreneurs adept at captivating the audience will maintain an elevated status, and as such, exceptionally brilliant people created platforms to indulge the desires of the attention economy. Therefore, a possible explanation for the innovation drought could be as a result of the smartest people diverting their energies to the lifestyle sector, instead of investing in the hard sciences.
Unleashing breakthroughs in the hard sciences demands greater cognitive efforts than creating the next popular app or social media platform. Hence due to the potential for easier rewards in lifestyle sectors, cognitive elites are motivated to pursue social ventures. Researchers should explore the proclivities of the smart fraction to shed light on the declining rate of innovation. Zoltan Acs also echoed this sentiment in a recent interview when he noted that for innovation, only exceptional people matter, since they are responsible for designing the future. Researchers are correct to note the rarity of groundbreaking innovations, but their analyses are inaccurate. The answer is that the character of innovation is changing because cognitive elites have acquired different interests.
✔️ Boost your immune system with Nutraceutical by Dr. Zev Zelenko
✔️ Get ahead of shortages with 5 Antibiotics Delivered to Your Home
✔️ Detox your body with Organic Supplements
Image via Pxfuel.
Yes, We Need Your Help
I hate being “that guy” who asks people to donate because I think our conservative news network is so crucial, but here I am…
When I left my cushy corporate job in 2017, I did so knowing that my family would have to make sacrifices. But I couldn’t continue to watch the nation slip into oblivion and was inspired by President Trump’s willingness to fight the good fight even at his own personal expense. What I didn’t realize then is that conservative media would be so heavily attacked, canceled, and defunded that the sacrifices would be extreme.
Many in this nation are struggling right now even though we weren’t struggling just a few years ago. I’m not alone. But I wake up every morning and operate the sites we’ve been able to build because there’s really no other choice. I refuse to be beholden to Big Tech like so many other conservative news outlets, which is why you won’t see Google ads here. With that said, it’s often challenging to pay the bills and it’s even harder to expand so we can get the America First message out to a wider audience.
The economic downturn has forced me to make a plea for help. Between cancel culture, lockdowns, and diminishing ad revenue, we need financial assistance in order to continue to spread the truth. We ask all who have the means, please donate through our Giving Fuel. Your generosity is what keeps these sites running and allows us to expand our reach so the truth can get to the masses. We’ve had great success in growing but we know we can do more with your assistance.
We currently operate:
- NOQ Report
- Conservative Playlist
- Uncanceled News
- Based Underground
- Five other conservative news sites
I would even be willing to entertain investments and partnerships at this stage. I’ve turned them down in the past because editorial purity is extremely important. I’ll turn them down again if anyone wants us to start supporting RINOs or avoid “taboo” topics like voter fraud, vaccines, or transgender supremacy. But I’d talk to fellow America First patriots who want to help any (or all) of our 10 news sites. Hit me up at jdrucker (at) substack (dot) com if you’re interested.
For those who have the means and just want to help keep the mission of spreading a conservative, Christian message to the nation, please consider a generous donation.
Covid variant BA.5 is spreading. It appears milder but much more contagious and evades natural immunity. Best to boost your immune system with new Z-Dtox and Z-Stack nutraceuticals from our dear friend, the late Dr. Vladimir Zelenko.