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(Corey Lowenstein/The News & Observer via AP, File) The United States Census Bureau will release its full results later this year, after a delay of several months due to the pandemic. But even before district lines get redrawn according to census stats — a process that will decidedly favor Republicans because of their nearly 2-1 advantage in state legislative control –many Democratic House members are already looking for new jobs.
Some Democrats will run for higher office. But many more will retire. So far, there have been five Democrats who are not running in 2022 and that number is expected to explode later this year.
The reason for that is the unusually high number of competitive House districts currently held by the Democrats. Blue-state legislative gerrymandering would probably save some of those members. But with the preponderance of competitive races taking shape in red states and with history itself being against Democrats, their chances of keeping the House are dropping like a stone.
History has been a poor predictor in recent elections. There used to be massive swings in House seats after off-year elections. But the drawing of district lines has been digitized to the point that both parties are able to […]
Read the whole story at pjmedia.com
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