It is time to reopen our economy. President Trump should make the announcement sometime next week. This would give businesses time to prepare and reopen for business by April 20th.
Now, this doesn’t mean the economy would open up everywhere. No, governors and local elected officials are the ones that will make this determination. The President has no authority to do so, but governors and local elected officials are looking to the White House for direction.
After we compiled more data, the previous models of hospitalization and the number of deaths America could face were found to be inaccurate. The new model indicates that death forecasts will be 60,415 by August 4, 2020.
This model assumes that full social distancing will occur, rather than the previously projected numbers of 100,000 to 240,000.
The thing many articles and pundits are neglecting to mention is the 100,000 to 240,000 number did take into account full social distancing.
We all know that full social distancing has not been happening even if we look at the most significant hot spot in the US, New York City. If you didn’t know, the subway has been running this whole time.
Here is a video from the Guardian posted on YouTube on April 10, 2020. See for yourself.
Therefore, if the projected numbers are dropping even though we are not fully practicing social distancing, it would suggest that this virus, even though still dangerous, isn’t the Black Plague. It isn’t even as bad a the Spanish Flu or Polio, and even with those viruses, we never shut down our economy and way of life.
Therefore, people that are high-risk of hospitalization or death by COVID-19 should continue to practice full social distancing. Still, for those of us that are low-risk, we should exercise precautions, but we should open up our economy and get back to work.
This would not only help high-risk individuals by accelerating herd immunity, but we will save our economy and way of life as well.
Small businesses are the backbone of our economy. Most people work at a small business (under 500 employees), but most companies don’t have months of reserves.
The Small Business Administration Paycheck Protection is not a solution, but a very temporary band-aid. Forgiving loans for payroll, health insurance, rent or mortgage interest, and utilities will help, but not all business expenses are covering and will not be forgiven.
For instance, I’m in transportation, and currently don’t have any loans, thankfully, but at one point, I had over $500,000 in debt when I purchased vehicles for my company.
If those loans and loan payments were in effect, what would I do if those vehicles are not operating and not bringing in revenue? Even if I got a low-interest loan from the SBA to cover those expenses, I still need to pay it back, but I have foregone a month plus of little to no revenue. Thus, putting more debt and strain on my business, and therefore, increasing the likelihood of bankruptcy.
Even when the economy opens up, things will not go back to what it was. It will take time, and the longer we are shut down, the harder and longer it will take.
This means that these small businesses are less likely to survive the longer America is closed for business. With fewer employers, we will have fewer employees. So the longer we wait to reopen, the higher and more protracted our unemployment will be, and deeper and greater the recession will be.
The cascading effect of a prolonged closure of our economy is profound and cannot be fully realized right now, but we do know it won’t be good.
I don’t blame elected officials for being extremely precautious at first. Still, now with more data coming in the past few weeks and days, it is clear that COVID-19 is dangerous, but it isn’t the doomsday virus we feared. It isn’t even the deadliest disease America has ever faced.
Therefore, it is time to get Americans back to work, and at the same time, support places like New York City that can’t entirely do this right now. The data is clear; we must do this, or we will face a depression worse than the Great Depression.
Article originally posted on Right on Politics