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Coronavirus hysteria is all over the news. Dare I say, some of it is even joy over a potential health disaster because it may reflect badly on the President. MSNBC is praying it will be ‘Donald Trump’s Katrina’ with zero regard for their fellow citizens. The only concern is their preferred political outcome in November.
While this is just disgusting, it is also the primary reason I have been reading original sources and looking at emerging statistics rather than listening to the media’s zombie apocalypse dreams or Democrat’s politically motivated attacks. This is also how I have developed my personal plan for living through coronavirus, which I will get to later.
Let’s start with some easily located facts. President Trump implemented travel restrictions and allocated $2.5 billion in emergency funding before a single case of COVID-19 was identified in the United States. He immediately appointed the Vice President to coordinate the response between the administration, the health agencies and the private sector. Yes, there was a testing failure. It has since been corrected.
Remember the Swine Flu?
Compare this to the Obama administration’s response to the swine flu pandemic in 2009. The CDC responded from a public health perspective. However, President Obama did not declare a national emergency or allocate an amount less than half of what President Trump did until seven months later. This was after the CDC had reported millions of infections and over 1,000 deaths.
Do you remember massive media outrage, major event cancellations and doom and gloom economic predictions? Of course you don’t. I was leading a Human Resources function at a busy warehousing operation at the time. There was no massive sick out. There weren’t any severe product shortages. Nor were we directed to carry on any differently than we always did. If you are sick stay home. If you show up to work sick, we’re going to send you home.
As of July 31, 2009, there were 3,425 confirmed cases in Illinois where I lived. This was the end of the initial outbreak period. At that time the Illinois Department of Public Health had the following statement on their website:
The reported number of ” probable and confirmed” cases do not reflect the overall incidence of H1N1 influenza in Illinois because CDC and the Illinois Department of Public Health are not emphasizing testing of patients with mild illness. Most individuals with novel influenza H1N1 infection have mild illness and are not being tested.
There were no calls for drive through testing sites or mass testing of asymptomatic people. Yet an analysis of the first year of the outbreak led to the following conclusion according to the National Institutes of Health (NIH):
From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, we estimate that approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. Eighty-seven percent of deaths occurred in those under 65 years of age with children and working adults having risks of hospitalization and death 4 to 7 times and 8 to 12 times greater, respectively, than estimates of impact due to seasonal influenza covering the years 1976-2001.
So H1N1 killed a lot of people under 65 and the death rate was far greater than typical seasonal influenza. You can read the full study here. Did you even know that? Where were our breathless firefighters then? Most likely doing the responsible thing and not stoking public panic. Obama was President and surely everything was being run just perfectly.
And despite the massive number of infections and increased number of deaths among the productive age population worldwide, the economic impact was not evident at all on the stock market:
The Denominator Matters
The media went insane over President Trump saying he had a hunch after talking to experts that the death rate related to Coronavirus would fall. At that point it stood at 3.4% globally according to the World Health Organization. What they studiously ignored was his statement was backed up by experts at Johns Hopkins, Georgetown and an article in the New England Journal of Medicine. The simple fact is the denominator matters and testing for the most part has only been done on symptomatic or severe cases.
This idea is bolstered by data from South Korea. With more expansive testing that has covered 140,000 people as of March 5th, they have identified 6,000 cases. Many of these cases are mild or asymptomatic and their death rate is at 0.6%. As testing continues, the death rate will likely continue to drop. We will also have a much better idea of what percentage of cases result in severe illness and in what populations.
The Kids Seem Alright
NBC shared some additional good news:
In China, where the outbreak started, children comprise just 2.4 percent of all reported cases of COVID-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus, a World Health Organization-China Joint Mission report from last month found. Of those, only a sliver — 2.5 percent — experienced severe symptoms, and an even tinier proportion — 0.2 percent — became critically ill. Worldwide, there have been no deaths reported so far in young children
The article goes on to say early theories on the age-relatedness of severe and deadly cases of the coronavirus have not panned out. But the pattern persists and children often appear to have a cold, but their runny nose is caused by the COVID-19. The latest figures indicate if you are under 50, the risk of death from contracting this strain of coronavirus is under 1%.
Research is Happening
Finally, motivation and money from the administration is producing more information about the virus at an astounding pace. Argonne National Laboratory announced that a cooperative effort between researchers from various government and academic agencies have discovered a potential target in the structure of the virus.
The scientists said their findings suggest drugs that had previously been in development to treat the earlier SARS outbreak could now be developed as effective drugs against COVID-19.
That is some fantastic news you probably won’t hear on MSNBC.
How I Plan to Live Through COVID-19
A genius Twitter user asked the following question which along with my experience during H1N1 have framed my approach:
Serious question: CDC estimated that, during 2018-2019 influenza season, estimated 35.5 million Americans got sick , 16.5 million went to a health care provider, 490,600 were hospitalized, & 34,200 died. Why don't we have quarantines and mass event cancellations for regular flu?
— Joel Berg (@Joelsberg) March 7, 2020
Truth is, not a lot is going to change in my life. During cold and flu season, I avoid personal contact with people who are obviously ill or say they don’t feel well. The current joke at the local bar we gather at is “No hugging. Elbow bump!”. So everyone seems to be on the same page there.
I am going to the gym when I finish this article. I will wipe down the equipment before and after I use it and keep several machines between myself and other members. I will also make liberal use of the complimentary hand sanitizer and wash my hands thoroughly before I leave.
My family all works with the public or travels for work regularly. They are all on mandatory doses of vitamin C and D3. Because the NBC article noted common colds can be caused by a version of coronavirus, we will probably add zinc and have Zicam handy in case anyone develops cold symptoms. It may not help, but it can’t hurt. Plenty of fluids, good sleep and regular exercise round it out for now. Maintaining personal health seems like something positive you can do and may actually help keep COVID-19 at bay.
If we got the flu, we would stay away from my parents until we were no longer contagious. The same would be true if we had even mild symptoms of an upper respiratory illness now. They are in a higher risk age bracket for both the regular flu and COVID-19, so social distancing is prudent.
We will not go on a cruise, which is fine because I hate them anyway. I will still go out with friends, go to a movie and do pretty much everything I normally do. I just returned from CPAC a week ago and would have gone to SXSW if the hysteria hadn’t gotten it cancelled. I flew on planes, went to work and did everything I normally did during the H1N1 outbreak. And lived to tell about it.
While I may take a few additional and simple precautions, I am not going to freak out and empty my local Walmart of toilet paper. However, I am going to blame the Trump hating media for the damage to my 401K. And continued distrust of the corporate media that may be the most persistent long term effect of COVID-19 when it is all over.
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