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If there’s one thing that bugs me about primary season commentaries, it’s when a way-too-smart analyst makes the case for a win actually being a loss for a candidate, followed closely by analysts who make the case that a loss was actually a win. The intellectual cartwheels necessary to be so nonsensical tarnishes the field of journalism and turns people away from listening to sound analyses.
With that said, I’ll make the case that Senator Bernie Sanders’ win in the New Hampshire primary was not as rosy at it may seem on the surface. The difference between this analysis and others like it is that I’m right. The others may be right as well, but I haven’t read them.
There were two scenarios that would have put Sanders clearly in the driver’s seat careening down the path to the nomination. The first is obvious. If he had won New Hampshire with anywhere near the support he had there in 2016, the momentum would have likely pushed him to an outright win (the Bloomberg wildcard notwithstanding) with the necessary delegates going into the Democratic National Convention. But he didn’t get that type of support. In fact, he barely won in a state that loved him to the tune of 60% of the votes in 2016. The field is obviously bigger this time and Hillary Clinton isn’t the one he’s fighting against, but to squeak out a win in New Hampshire doesn’t give him a big momentum boost.
The second scenario may seem counter-intuitive, but hear me out. He needed Senator Elizabeth Warren to get delegates and finish in a comfortable but not encouraging third place. Sanders is the benefactor of her fall from grace, but he needs her to not fall so fast. He needs her to block other candidates from getting delegates because her delegates are much more likely to select him as their second choice in a contested convention than delegates for any of the other candidates.
In a brokered convention, Warren is Sanders’ firewall. She may be flip-flopping back and forth between being a radical progressive and being a sensible moderate, but her delegates will be progressives. With the new DNC rules awarding split delegates in all states, it’s imperative for someone like Sanders to have as many friendly faces in the delegate count as possible. The only delegates who will favor him are his own, of course, and Warren’s. If she fails miserably and continues getting goose eggs in the delegate count, his hopes of winning the nomination in Minneapolis are essentially nil if he can’t get to the magic number on his own.
The worst-case-scenario for Sanders has already taken shape. As a brokered convention seems more and more likely, it’s him versus the combined delegate counts of the rest of the field. If he can’t win it outright, he has no chance of being the nominee.
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