Polls are stupid. We learned that clearly in 2016 when all of the major polls except one predicted Hillary Clinton would be the winner of the presidential election. But as long as we’re a people that tries to look forward, we’ll always turn to the polls to see what they’re predicting.
One of the most complex predictive models (which allegedly makes them superior to others) is FiveThirtyEight. Before 2016, they had an amazing track record of accuracy, but President Trump’s victory has been a scar on just about every predictive model, including FiveThirtyEight which gave Hillary Clinton a huge chance of winning. Nevertheless, we still look to them as arguably the most reliable model available, and that’s great news for Bernie Sanders.
The Democratic Socialist has overcome his heart attack last year to jump into the lead by a mile, according to FiveThirtyEight. In fact, following what may or may not be a narrow loss in Iowa (we STILL don’t know for sure), FiveThirtyEight is projecting Sanders having the advantage in all remaining primaries and caucuses.
Things can change quickly and their model is fluid, changing daily based on new data. Moreover, there’s the DNC and the Democratic Establishment which seems hellbent on subverting a Sanders nomination. They’ve called on everyone from President Obama and John Kerry to CNN and the Washington Post to try to not-so-subtly convince Democrats a Sanders nomination is bad news for the party.
Apparently, voters aren’t heeding their warnings. They shouldn’t.
Before the Iowa caucus on Monday, Joe Biden had a slight edge in the FiveThirtyEight model. But an utterly abysmal 4th-place showing turned the model sour for Biden. He’s still technically the second-most-likely candidate to win, but FiveThirtyEight now has a brokered convention as more likely than a Biden victory.
As a conservative, my preference would be to see Sanders win the nomination. It has nothing to do with whether or not he’s the best opponent against President Trump or what would happen down-ballot. Anyone who claims to know either of those answers is delusional. But America needs a reckoning of sorts. We need to have the discussion about conservatism versus socialism and there’s no better time for that to happen than during a contentious presidential election cycle. Until that happens—and it WILL happen at some point—radical progressives will continue to wonder if their message would resonate with the masses if the DNC would simply get out of the way.
Obviously, I’m supportive of President Trump’s agenda, but I believe America needs to see his ideas up against a Democratic Socialist sooner rather than later. I don’t want to wait for Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to come of age or Cenk Uyger to make his move. I want to see the grandfather of modern American socialism against the populist currently in the Oval Office.
If the DNC doesn’t steal the nomination (again) away from Bernie Sanders, it seems like he’s in the driver’s seat to be the one to take on President Trump. I welcome this as we’ll get to see a proper contrast and stark debate from now until November.