As a trained market technician (however not certified), the discussion of oil prices related to the recent Iran/US tit-a-tat is a source of great amusement. For example the WSJ Editorial Board pontificated that the “first Gulf War caused oil prices to nearly double in a few months.” Curious. Adherents to Ralph Nelson Elliott’s theory of markets had predicted that move, Gulf War or no. Elliott Wave International has extensively documented the utter disconnect between news and stock prices.
My entertainment was amplified as I looked at the aftermarket action of USO, the oil ETF. It seems that the WSJ Op-Ed was written in the early evening as the attack was underway. During those hours, USO did rise slightly less than 5% from the daily market close. But by the moment of this writing, it is down 1.4% from the closing price. It seems that something doesn’t add up.
I’ve been a victim of this phenomenon. A couple of years ago I took an “earnings trade” in Netflix. I thought I had properly divined the market. After the daily market closed, NFLX announced its earning. The good news was amazing. Not only did they earn more than the market analysts predicted, they earned more than their own bean counters predicted. Happy days are here again! But NFLX share price took a bath, and I got clobbered. On good news!
EWI’s magnificent film, History’s Hidden Engine, clearly demonstrates that a number of market elements closely track large social mood. And because of this, EWI’s companion institution, The Socionomist, notes that the 3-year stock market trend before the election is a very good predictor of the President’s re-election chances. It also predicts the chances of his removal via impeachment.
We can be even more critical of market pundits. On a daily basis we hear that “because of X, Y happened.” But those pundits refuse to participate in a challenge where they make predictions. It would actually be quite simple.
There are a lot of scheduled economic announcements. We can look at the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s regular statement that they will either raise, lower, or leave interest rates the same. The Labor Department’s “Non-Farm Payroll” announcement is also on the calendar.
Pundits would make a set of predictions and hand them to a neutral third party. What happens if the FOMC does any of the three possibilities. Ditto for Non-Farm Payroll. Predict the number of jobs. Then assess the market response if they get it right, there are more jobs, or fewer jobs than the prediction. After the data is released to the public, open the predictions. Post them on a public site. Keep going for a number of months.
Once this data is in hand, we will know what credence to give the TV swamis. After all, their record will be clear, and they can’t go backwards to “correct the record.” My guess is that they will all be shown to have less accuracy than darts thrown at the ticker tape. Like last night.
American Conservative Movement
As we prepare for the 2020 election, we are joining with fellow patriots to form a grassroots movement to advance the cause of conservatism. We will focus on two priorities until election day: Stopping Democrats from winning elections and promoting strong conservative candidates wherever they are viable. After the election, we will shift to focusing on educating America about the tenets of conservatism. We currently have 7500+ patriots with us in a very short time. If you are interested, please join us to receive updates.
One Sick Day Proves We Need More Voices in Truthful Media
On October 19, I was sick. It crossed my mind that I had finally gotten the ‘rona, but my wife’s cream of chicken soup and a few extra hours of sleep into mid-afternoon had be back up and running after a sleepless night before.
When I finally stumbled over to my computer in the evening, I was met with a deluge of concern from readers. They asked what had happened as only one article had been posted that day. Generally, we post between 10-20 daily between all of the sites, not included curated and aggregated content. Seeing that we’d only posted my super-early morning article before taking the rest of the day off had readers assuming the worst.
We have a wonderful and talented group of writers who volunteer their time for the sites and their readers. Sharing their amazing perspectives has always been a blessing to us because we cannot afford to hire anyone at this time. But having great writers is meaningless if we don’t have great editors, or at least one additional. My wife helps me read and edit stories from time to time, but I’m a one-man show when it comes to getting the stories posted.
Whenever I highlight our desperate need for donations, I note that we do not receive money from Google ads even though most in conservative media are beholden. I often ambiguously note that the money donated will help us grow. Today, I’m highlighting a specific need. We must get an editor to help take some of the load and to expand on our mission of spreading the truth to the world. One sick day proved that.
The great news is that there is no shortage of people who CAN help. I am emailed variations of resumes every week by people who are much smarter than I am. As much as I’d love to hire some of them, we simply cannot. That takes money and as blessed as we’ve been to receive donations and collect ad money (though not from Google or Facebook), we have still fallen short.
Those who have the means, PLEASE consider donating. We have the standard Giving Fuel option and people can donate through PayPal. We are also diving into what we believe is extremely disruptive technology at LetsGo.finance, the world’s first major donation portal for crypto. I’ll be talking a lot more about them in the near future. Those who prefer Bitcoin can send to my address here: 3A1ELVhGgrwrypwTJhPwnaTVGmuqyQrMB8
We can get the voices out there and we’re willing to shine a spotlight on new talent. We just need the resources to make it happen. If you can help, we would be extremely grateful.
Thank you and God bless!
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JD Rucker – EIC