The following concise analysis was received directly from a renowned national security expert who does not seek attribution:
In short, I believe that the nature of the Iranian response will be regional and that it will aim at military and government targets, not the civilian sphere.
This is contextual as the Iranian government is still trying to frame events as a just-military struggle with the United States and Israel to distract from the growing domestic troubles caused by our economic sanctions.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted operations in the Continental United States [CONUS], notably a 2011 assassination attempt of the Saudi ambassador, but this is regarded as something of an anomaly (and it failed).
The primary resource and most significant threat within CONUS would be the extensive network of Hezbollah contacts within our nation’s airports. This is controlled by Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader who is extremely hesitant to jeopardize the lucrative smuggling revenue this network generates.
The recent trial of Ali Kourani for casing JFK airport brought this network to light but it has existed for decades, primarily moving drugs and untaxed cigarettes.
After losing some 5,000 soldiers in Syria, Nasrallah is not eager to venture further away from the Israeli battlefront Hezbollah focuses on.
Now, this does not rule out the unaffiliated lone actor who acts out on the template of Iranian support.
In summary, I would keep an eye on our American airports especially in the New York City area, but I expect the Iranian retaliation to be aimed at our military and diplomatic envoys in the Middle East (and most likely, the Israelis).
We are currently forming the American Conservative Movement. If you are interested in learning more, we will be sending out information in a few weeks.
[gravityform id=”2″ title=”true” description=”false”]