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The events that continue to unfold in Iraq and across the Middle East are discouraging. Iraq is a quagmire we never should have invaded. Our need to be in Afghanistan died with Osama bin Laden (who ended up being in Pakistan). Our continued presence in Syria is confusing at best. We have interests in the Middle East, but they could be managed from established bases in ally nations. There is no reason to continue to give Iran and their proxies targets.
An article we published this morning bordered on a neoconservative stance. It’s rare that I counter points made by my authors, but this is the exception. I do not agree with this assessment:
War with Iran would be bad, but may be unavoidable
Thus far, nothing they’ve attempted to do has worked. They blew their money funding terrorism and building militia proxies across the Middle East. Now they’re stretched thin but seem completely unwilling to risk their nuclear program by coming to the negotiating table. Instead, their strategies rest solely on drawing the United States into conflict with them without being perceived as the aggressors. This, more than anything else, is why they’re pushing their militias in Iraq to attack Americans. They want to get hit while still being able to claim innocence. By their machinations, they can get international aid if they can play the victim card.
This is why war with Iran may be unavoidable. As politically unpopular as it would be to get into another Middle East conflict, the alternative is to maintain a dangerous presence in Iraq and other Middle Eastern nations. We’re already having a hard time getting the Iraqi government to support us because Iran has its clutches on many lawmakers there.
Yes, war with Iran would be bad. No, it is not unavoidable. Let’s address both points.
War with Iran would be bad
Iran is neither Iraq nor Afghanistan. We’ve been stuck in those quagmires for all the wrong reasons and it has cost us tremendously. We’ve lost American lives in Iraq for the sake of a false premise war. We’ve lost American lives in Afghanistan for apparently no real reason at all. We’ve spent trillions of dollars fighting battles and maintaining an extended presence in countries that don’t want us there. This is not the righteous use of force every President is tasked with ensuring when they make the decision to put our troops in harm’s way.
Some people I respect are calling for war with Iran and removal of their oppressive regime.
Afghanistan and Iraq were quagmires that cost us American lives and trillions of dollars.
Iran with their Russian military technology would be much, much worse.
Think it through, folks.
— JD Rucker (@JDRucker) January 1, 2020
Iran would be the quagmire of quagmires. Any attack against them without a crystal clear and indisputable reason would harm us physically and diplomatically. If we were to invade them, it would be disastrous. They aren’t Saddam Hussein’s Iraq or the ill-equipped Taliban. They have Russian weapons and other advanced technologies that make them a much harder nut to crack.
But here’s the thing. Even if they weren’t as sophisticated, we have no reason to attack them. They hate us. They threaten us. They burn our flags and their leaders call us the “Great Satan” that must be destroyed. And as they sit in their palaces in Tehran spewing vitriol on Twitter or chanting “death to America” in the streets, no actual harm is coming to Americans. If we went around attacking everyone who hates us, we’d need a much bigger military than we have today. Sorry, folks, but literally billions of people around the world hate us.
Is war with Iran avoidable?
Of course it is. Unless they sail their little attack boats across the ocean and start shelling Miami, we have no reason to go to war. It’s imperative that we retain situational awareness and handle each incident appropriately. Their proxies attacked the Embassy and killed an American contractor. We responded by sending F-15s to hit compounds in Iraq and Syria, killing 25 and wounding 50. The next time they attack the Embassy or anywhere else, we’ll figure out where the attackers are and hit them again.
Defend. Monitor. Assess. Respond. Rinse. Repeat.
Our Embassy in Baghdad must be defended. Every Embassy does. Let’s make sure we have a proper defensive stance with appropriate level of protections and quick-response reinforcements at the ready. But that should be the extent of our presence in any nation that isn’t an unambiguous ally. We cannot be human shields in Syria. We shouldn’t be the police force in Afghanistan. Our military must defend our interests and let sovereign nations handle their own recurring problems.
We have the technology to help allies from afar when the need arises. For example, satellites, spy planes, drones, and air support would have been enough to contain and help the massive Middle Eastern military forces take out the Islamic State. Arming and training the various failed militias in Syria and Iraq was unnecessary and failed miserably. The Islamic State fell in spite of our efforts, as many of the weapons we supplied and troops we trained ended up joining ISIS and al Qaeda. The indefensible habit of sticking our fingers where they don’t belong has always come back to bite us. It’s time to stop.
To avoid war with Iran, we simply need to not go to war with Iran. I know, it’s a crazy thought, but it really is as simple as that. We need to limit our exposure across the Middle East. Fortify the areas where we need to be, such as the Embassy in Baghdad, and remove our troops from places they don’t need to be such as Syria and Afghanistan. Many of the President’s advisers have been adamant about us remaining to defend the oil fields in Syria. Why? It’s not our oil. It’s not our problem. If it gets into the “wrong” hands, how is that harming us? How is that any more destabilizing to the region than having our troops there at all?
Iran may become a real problem for America in the future. We’ll deal with it. But the notion that we may have to go to war with them over Iraq is asinine. It would be trying to justify mistakes of our past. Let’s accept the mistakes and move on.
We are currently forming the American Conservative Movement. If you are interested in learning more, we will be sending out information in a few weeks.
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