Foreign Affairs
It’s time to stop pretending Turkey is an ally
Recep Tayyip Erdogan hates America. His government hates America. His willingness to occasionally play nice, whether with President Obama or President Trump, always comes with a heavy price. We may be on the verge of witnessing the heaviest price paid yet in the form of reinvigorated war in Syria and tens of thousands killed. If that happens, President Trump will have made a tremendous mistake by pandering to the Turkish dictator’s demands.
But there’s still hope for a bloodbath to be averted. The unintended benefit of the administration pulling back American troops from the border areas coveted by Turkey and currently held by our (former) allies, the Kurdish-back Syrian Democratic Forces, is that the international community is stepping up. Many countries have called for Erdogan to stand down from his intended invasion into northern and eastern Syria, including Iran. Their support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad means they’d love for Syrian Kurds to side with the government and bolster their army. Then, of course, there’s the economic threat President Trump made to Erdogan.
The decision by President Trump to pull back American forces has been controversial to say the least. Many Republican lawmakers have denounced the move. On social media, even MAGA-hat wearing conservatives are scratching their heads about why the President would pick this moment to fulfill his campaign promise of pulling American troops from the “quagmires” in the Middle East. Afghanistan seems to be the bigger quagmire; our troops in Syria were fairly safe standing side-by-side with Kurdish militia allies, even if their primary role was as human shields to prevent Turkey from attacking.
I’ll admit I’ve been searching for the silver lining in this whole mess. It’s great that our troops are being pulled out of harm’s way, but if the presence of a few dozen troops in strategic areas away from fighting is all it takes to prevent a large-scale war from breaking out in the region, then one does not have to be a hawkish neoconservative to see the benefits of maintaining our presence there. An “America first” stance is positive, as is the desire to leave the quagmires, but the small price being paid by having a small number of troops present in a relatively safe area helping others fight the Islamic State seems to make sense.
The actual silver lining, if I’m forced to come up with one, is that if and when Turkey does turn their threats against the Kurds into a reality, we may finally have grounds to stop pretending like Turkey is an ally. Their presence in NATO means we must defend them. The fact they have two extremely important U.S. bases on their soil must also be considered. But if Erdogan does as most expect him to do, then it’s imperative that President Trump stops treating them like one of our buddies in the region.
Admittedly, I’ve long considered the Turkish government to be a central point of evil in the world. It’s not just Erdogan’s dictatorial stances and oppressive policies. He has indicated he wants to lead the caliphate to expand Sunni Islam’s dominance in the region, and while he hasn’t outwardly expressed a desire to spread it beyond the region, it’s a safe assumption his goal of rebuilding the Ottoman Empire includes expansion of his powers.
Wiping out the Kurds, if it happens (God forbid) must be the last straw that finally prompts aggressive economic and political action against Turkey. If we have to shut down our bases there, so be it. The fewer connections we have with Turkey, the better. We have Israel and Saudi Arabia as much better allies than Turkey (though it isn’t wise to get me started ranting about our alliance with Saudi Arabia, either) in the region. Unless the unimaginable happens and Erdogan’s incursion into Syria is truly limited, we must prepare to break from them and treat them the way they truly feel about us: as adversaries.
Results from the President’s previous moves have come back to surprise me. I’m hoping this is another one of those cases. I’m hoping this works out for both our Kurdish allies and President Trump. With no other option, hope is all I have left on this issue.
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Syria as a whole will be Bashar Al-Assad’s once again. That is, at least, what the Syrian President and the Russians are hoping for after Moscow brokered a deal between Assad’s regime and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in eastern Syria.
In the wake of a U.S. withdrawal from the border with Turkey and the subsequent invasion by Turkey 20 miles into Syrian territory, Assad and his long-time rivals are willing to work together against their mutual enemy. It isn’t just Turkey but also their proxies in the Free Syrian Army. The group, which was once supported by the Obama administration to fight Assad’s government, has been the tip of Turkey’s spear so far during the brief conflict with the SDF.
Russia, who has had an ongoing relationship with Assad and once supported the SDF, has renewed those ties and brought the two foes together to fight for a common cause. If it works, the Kurds will likely maintain some autonomy while adhering to a united Syria under Assad. If it fails, Turkey will take control of a stretch of land 20 miles deep and 300 miles wide along the border where they intend to relocate two million refugees.
This isn’t just about relocation, though. The Turkish government believes the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which comprises the most powerful militia group within the SDF, is supplying their allies in the Kurdisran Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey and America regard as a terrorist organization.
With Russia inserting itself into the mix, their relationship with Turkey will likely strain even more. But their greater goal of a united Syria under the control of Bashar Al-Assad is worth making Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan upset.
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In less than a week, Turkey has managed to draw the ire of most of the world, including most on Capitol Hill, as they move to eradicate Kurds and Christians in eastern Syria. Their invasion, coordinated with attacks by their Syrian al Qaeda proxies, have already caused turmoil, killed hundreds, and displaced hundreds of thousands.
Now, President Trump appears ready to follow through on his threat to “cripple Turkey’s economy” through sanctions.
Dealing with @LindseyGrahamSC and many members of Congress, including Democrats, about imposing powerful Sanctions on Turkey. Treasury is ready to go, additional legislation may be sought. There is great consensus on this. Turkey has asked that it not be done. Stay tuned!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 13, 2019
The President has been criticized by many in both political parties following the White House announcement that we are withdrawing troops from the border region. What followed was such a quick response in the form of an all out Turkish invasion that it’s clear they’ve been planning this for some time.
Our EIC took to Twitter to push the President towards following through with his threat against Turkey should they cross the line. As he noted, they have clearly crossed the line.
It's time to cripple Turkey's economy with harsh and unambiguous sanctions, @realdonaldtrump.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has heard the threats and has doubled down as a result.
Bringing al Qaeda in and facilitating the release of ISIS fighters and supporters crosses the line.
— JD Rucker (@JDRucker) October 13, 2019
Bringing troops home is a great thing.
Leaving a vacuum in our wake for radical Islamic terrorists to rise once again under Erdogan's haphazard charge is a very bad thing.
As ISIS regroups and al Qaeda expands, Americans and our allies become less safe.
— JD Rucker (@JDRucker) October 13, 2019
Historians can debate the efficacy of rapidly pulling back our limited number of troops from the Syrian-Turkish border. My focus is on the immediate future.
We must cripple Turkey's economy immediately.
They have crossed the line and the situation is getting much, much worse.
— JD Rucker (@JDRucker) October 13, 2019
The tribalism in American politics must not be used to justify Erdogan's actions. If this happened under Obama, all conservatives would be outraged.
The proper course of action is for President Trump to cripple Turkey's economy as promised. If not, I'm very concerned about 2020.
— JD Rucker (@JDRucker) October 13, 2019
Reports of civilian deaths are mounting. It isn’t just the Kurds that Turkey and al Qaeda are targeting. Syriac Christians are in the crosshairs as well. The intense fighting seems to be focused on clearing out entire cities to make room for the millions of refugees the Turks currently hold. Instead of just taking out military targets from the Kurds, who Turkey believes to be terrorists, the invaders are wiping out the entire populations in cities and villages near the border.
Senator Lindsey Graham chimed in. Graham has been a Trump supporter, but broke from the White House over the Syrian withdrawal. Now, he’s voicing hope and alignment with the President’s sanction plans.
Just spoke with President @realdonaldTrump.
I applaud his decision to work with Congress to stop Turkeys aggression in Syria through crippling economic sanctions.
This decision by President Trump will be a game changer — in all the wrong ways — for Turkey.
— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) October 13, 2019
Turkish President Erdogan clearly lied to President Trump. It’s time to send them a clear message in response. Our troops may be coming home, but we can stop this bloodbath through sanctions. Cripple their economy, Mr. President.
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