Bellwether. It’s a funny word that is tossed around political circles by media pundits whenever there’s an off-season election. Some were calling the North Carolina races (well, the one race that had question marks, at least) a bellwether for President Trump and/or the GOP for 2020. This is absolutely ludicrous.
I am very happy Dan Bishop won. It would have been an embarrassment for the President and a stain on the GOP if the Democrats could have expanded their control of the House. But it has nothing to do with 2020. Zilch. If he had lost, the Democrats would have said it was a bellwether for a blue wave in 2020. Since he won, some Republicans are calling it a bellwether. This single election in a single congressional district has about as much fortune-telling abilities as tea leaves when it comes to the 2020 election. Let’s keep it in perspective.
That’s not to take away from the victory, the influence of having the President and Vice President in town, or the saving of a seat that was put at risk over voter fraud last year. This is a big win. But it cannot be used as an indicator of anything other than the GOP ran a better campaign this time than they did last time and the Democrats weren’t able to sway enough voters in the red district to their side.
Implications like this are dangerous:
In a major victory for both President Trump and national Republicans, North Carolina GOP state Sen. Dan Bishop was projected to win a fiercely contested special U.S. House election widely seen as a bellwether for the president’s chances in the 2020 election.
Another Republican House candidate won a separate special election in a GOP-leaning district elsewhere in North Carolina earlier Tuesday evening — frustrating Democrats who spent millions trying to make a splash in the state, only to come up short.
The election was important for the people in the district and for the GOP’s current state of affairs in Congress. But it was not important for 2020. It’s neither an indicator of what’s to come nor an influencer of how 2020 will be played out. Nothing is different today on the national stage than it was yesterday other than saving the President from having to Tweet an insult or some other form of damage control.
A Democrat was kept out of office. For that, we should be thankful. But don’t read anything else into this. The GOP and conservatives have a long road ahead and tons of opposition to fight until we can claim any real victories.
We are currently forming the American Conservative Movement. If you are interested in learning more, we will be sending out information in a few weeks.
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