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The talking heads of leftist media have one of two perspectives they deliver daily about presidential candidate Joe Biden. If they like him, they say he’s the only one who gives the Democrats a realistic chance of beating incumbent Trump. If they don’t like him, they say he’s another establishment hack who will be the 2020 version of Hillary Clinton if he gets the nomination.
This is all good news for President Trump. He needs Biden to be the frontrunner as long as possible, though not necessarily all the way through to the nomination. The Democratic establishment’s view of Biden is likely correct. Of all the candidates, he’s the least scary to any Independents or anti-Trump Republicans who might otherwise vote for Trump if a radical progressive like Elizabeth Warren of Bernie Sanders is nominated. The progressives are right as well, though. Biden lacks the fire and ideological fortitude to inspire the radicals to support him.
At this stage, it’s impossible to tell the dynamic of the general election based on who might win the Democratic nomination. But one thing is definite: As long as Biden is the man to beat, the progressives will do everything in their power to beat him. They will attack him. They will do what many Republicans did during primary season in 2015 and 2016 with Trump by attacking him as unable to win the general. They will simultaneously try to push Biden’s perspectives to the left, just in case they can’t beat him.
If Sanders or Warren is able to pull ahead of Biden, the progressives will rally behind whatever far-leftist looks most likely to win.
But they won’t get behind Biden unless he’s the only viable option against Trump, which likely wouldn’t happen until the last delegate vote is counted at the Democratic National Convention.
It behooves Trump and his supporters to cheer on Biden until he starts to truly pull away, which cannot happen until well into primary season. This is what the Democrats did in 2016 with Trump. Even some of his harshest critics in the media today were practically sycophants of his before the Republican National Convention, hoping beyond hope that he would win the nomination so Hillary Clinton would be President. It backfired spectacularly, of course, which is a terrifying concept for Republicans now. What if I’m wrong? What if Biden defies the progressives, still wins the nomination, pulls the left together with the middle for the general election, and comes out victorious?
Meddling in the other side’s nominating process didn’t end well for Democrats. It may not end well for Republicans if they do the same thing. But the pieces in play today seem to be a lot more clear than they were in 2016 with the rise of the populist movement. Looking at those pieces, it seems logical to hope Biden stays at the top before falling to a unified radical wing of the Democratic Party.
The only thing worse than speculating about the general election at this early stage is listening to polls at any stage. But this is politics, and frankly it’s fun to speculate. 2020 can’t get here soon enough.
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