Alabama just passed a bill that effectively outlaws abortions in nearly all cases. It is unclear whether Governor Kay Ivey will sign the bill, though she has espoused pro-life sentiment throughout her political career.
But whether or not she will sign it is only the precedent to the biggest question out there right now: What will the Supreme Court say? Both the Alabama bill and the Georgia bill signed by Governor Brian Kemp last week will almost certainly be shot down by the lower courts and appeals court. Then, it will be up to the Supreme Court to decide. There will be many scenarios at that point, ranging from deciding not to hear the cases at all to ruling one or both unconstitutional based on Roe v. Wade to ruling that they are constitutional. In that last scenario, the question before the court will be whether or not to use these cases to overturn Roe v. Wade altogether.
Seven of the votes are already fairly certain. All four left-leaning justices will vote against the bills. The three most conservative justices will vote for them. That leaves Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh as the deciding votes. Some may say it isn’t that simple, but it really is. Two men will determine whether or not the bills are constitutional and whether or not they effectively overturn Roe v. Wade. It would take both of them to support the bills and overturn the 1973 abortion decision. If either buckles, the bills are doomed and Roe v. Wade stays the law of the land.
We’re far away from any of this making an actual impact on the laws in either state, let alone the nation. They have to work their way up through the court system, facing clear opposition until they get to the Supreme Court. Once there, we may get a defining moment in American history. Or we may get nothing.
At stake here is whether or not America is ready to recognize the rights of those who are alive at the point of conception. We have never been closer to finally ending the heinous practice of killing preborn Americans than we are today.