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We need a presence in the Middle East, just not a military one

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The Middle East is the most important region in the world. It’s not just the oil. It’s not just the turmoil or the political brinkmanship that are incessant in the region. Middle East stability is crucial as the linchpin that keeps the geopolitical and religious wheels of the world from flying off their axles.

At the heart of it is Israel, and more specifically Jerusalem. The Jewish state, which is our only real ally and only true Democracy in the region, must be protected at all costs. If there becomes a need for the United States to get involved militarily in defense of Israel, so be it. Otherwise, there is no need for a military presence in the region.

Hawks often invoke the importance of the region as their reason for wanting to keep troops stationed throughout the Middle East. Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq, among others, are hubs for terrorism. The Islamic State is still active and has the potential to regroup in a matter of weeks if the right catalysts came to be. Crime is a serious concern and Afghanistan in particular contributes to the drug problem in America and throughout the western world. Unwanted factions can disrupt the world’s oil supply. Human rights violations are rampant across the region.

There are dozens of reasons politicians on both the right and left can call for military intervention in the Middle East, but all of them neglect one important fact. It’s not helping. With the exception of the defeating the Islamic State, none of our efforts in the Middle East have been effective. In fact, there’s clear evidence that since the 1980s, every attempt to bring stability to the region through military activities has resulted in much more damage than good.

We needed to be there to defeat the Islamic State. Now that there’s just a remnant remaining, we need to either eliminate them completely now or pull out and let regional powers finish them off. That’s up to our military leaders to decide, but lately it seems like they’re preference is to use the remnant of ISIS as an excuse to stay in the region.

The political reasons for keeping troops in the Middle East are all based on fear of what could happen if we’re not there. They argue that our presence is beneficial, and that may be true to some extent, but the benefits are greatly outweighed by the detriments. Our military is to be used for the defense of the nation and its interests. It’s very hard to make a case that being in the Middle East serves our interests without succumbing to irrational fears of what could happen if we’re not there.

We definitely need a presence in the Middle East. We need businesses and contractors earning money as they help the region stabilize. We need journalists there to report on developments. We need our intelligence services there to keep an eye on what’s going on and what’s coming down the pipe. But our military presence is unnecessary, wasteful, and unproductive.

Critics of pulling out will say that we’ll leave a void that will be filled by Iran, Russia, or even China. Here’s the thing. Leaving the region will not create any bigger void than the one that already exists. We’re not occupying these nations. We’re not fulfilling a strategic need at these Middle Eastern nations’ request. We’re there to say we’re there and to act as cover. In essence, our troops are acting as human shields to prevent Syria, Russia, Iran, or others from attacking those who are serving our interests, such as the Kurdish rebels in Syria. As sad and heartless as it may sound, we cannot put our troops at risk in this manner to deter attacks on those who have helped us. A valid argument can be made that pulling out will put those who helped us at risk, but let’s not inflate their benevolence. They weren’t fighting for us. They were fighting for themselves. They are serving their own interests, and just because their interests partially aligned with our interests in the past, that’s not enough motivation to keep our troops in harm’s way.

Israel is the only exception. We need to be ready to swoop in and assist in any way necessary when called upon by our true Middle Eastern ally. They haven’t needed our help yet, but if that day ever comes, we need to be ready. Otherwise, we don’t need to have a military presence in the Middle East, period.

If we stop basing our actions around fear of what could be and start looking at the Middle East situation rationally, we’ll discover that our military presence is unnecessary. It’s not just about no longer intervening. It’s about not succumbing to irrational fears.

I’m Tammy Rucker. Thank you for listening.

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Foreign Affairs

A Japanese F-35 is missing and that’s a very big deal!

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A Japanese F-35 is missing and thats a very big deal

While America’s elected officials of both political parties obsess over a nothingburger political scandal, meanwhile on the other side of the Pacific Ocean our warfighting capabilities and that of our allies are seriously threatened. A Japanese F-35A fighter aircraft has gone missing!

Media coverage has predominantly been from sources in the Asia-Pacific Theater. Following are excerpts regarding the disappearance and analyses of the significance.

The US and Japan still can’t find a missing F-35, and its ‘secrets’ may be in danger

One week has passed since a Japanese Air Self-Defense Force F-35A Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter mysteriously disappeared.

Japanese authorities believe the fifth-generation stealth fighter crashed in the Pacific.

A Japan Air Self-Defense Force F-35A Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter flown by 41-year-old Maj. Akinori Hosomi disappeared from radar last Tuesday, April 9.

No distress signal was sent out as the aircraft vanished roughly 85 miles east of Misawa Air Base.

The F-35A is an airplane that contains a significant amount of secrets that need to be protected.

Tom Moore, a former senior professional staff member with the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, tweeted recently, “There is no price too high in this world for China and Russia to pay to get Japan’s missing F-35.”

US scrambles to keep F-35’s secrets safe from Russia and China

Japan’s F-35A that went missing is believed to be able to act like a high-performance radar in the air.

The U.S. has placed a never-before-seen level of priority on this crash. That is likely because the F-35A is expected to play a crucial role in the future of modern warfare.

U.S. has suspended delivery of F-35 equipment to NATO ally Turkey because of Ankara’s decision to purchase Russian-made missile systems with Washington citing an intelligence risk.

Any information on the technology in the F-35s is in high demand. China has reportedly already acquired parts of the F-35 blueprint through cybertheft. It has been advancing its own stealth fighter program, deploying its own J-20 jet to rival the F-35.

…[B]eing able to touch and analyze the actual material or radar-absorbing stealth paint used for the F-35 will boost its understanding to a new level….

It is not hard to imagine that the military and intelligence brass in Beijing and Moscow are salivating at the idea of an F-35A in the sea.

The fact that the U.S. military has taken the unusual step of sending a B-52 bomber to the crash area is a stern message that it will not allow anyone to touch the plane.

The F-35A that crashed into the Pacific this time is thought to be sunk on the seabed about 1,500 meters deep.

The crash site is roughly 150 km off Japan’s Aomori Prefecture and within Japan’s exclusive economic zone. China and Russia cannot conduct search or salvage operations without Tokyo’s permission. But it is not entirely impossible that the China’s People’s Liberation Army or the Russian military will deploy submarines or underwater drones to attempt to reach the F-35A.

The fate of the sunken F-35A has the potential of altering the air power balance between the major powers.

********

China has to be the prime concern that they be prevented from obtaining the technology of the F-35 and reverse engineering it for their own military advantage.

It is pertinent to look at the variants of the F-35 and the role they play in military actions.

********

F-35 VARIANTS

Three Variants, Common Capability

The F-35 family includes three variants – all single-seat jets: the F-35A conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) variant, the F-35B short takeoff/vertical landing (STOVL) variant, and the F-35C carrier variant (CV).

The U.S. Air Force as well as the majority of our allied air forces and Foreign Military Sales (FMS) nations will operate the F-35A.

The F-35B model short takeoff/vertical landing (STOVL) variant is designed to operate from austere, short-field bases and a range of air-capable ships operating near front-line combat zones. [Used by U.S. Marine Corps.]

The F-35C carrier variant (CV) is the Navy’s first stealth fighter and the world’s only 5th Generation, long-range stealth strike fighter designed and built explicitly for aircraft carrier operations.

********

Japan says its F-35A stealth fighters made seven precautionary landings before crash

Marine Corps F-35B, capable of short takeoffs and landings….

The downed aircraft, which was the first F-35A put together in Japan….

Commanders have not set a time limit on the search for Hosomi and the missing aircraft.

Unfortunately, one pilot on board is still missing as of now and the location of the aircraft has not been identified but we will do our best to find them as soon as possible.

All Japanese F-35As have been grounded since the incident.

Though U.S. search and rescue efforts have ended, we will continue to coordinate with our Japanese partners on efforts to locate and recover the missing aircraft.

Japanese crash investigators will seek U.S. support since the F-35A has a special fuselage and contains classified information.

Carl Baker, executive director of Pacific Forum in Hawaii, said searchers would use sonar to try to find the aircraft. It’s stealth capabilities, which make it virtually invisible to radar, won’t be a factor underwater.

However, the size of the search area and the lack of precise coordinates could mean a long search.

********

Let’s take a moment to look at the vital role that American F-35s play in the daily standoff in the Middle East between Israel and all its hostile neighbors.

********

Stealth on Steroids: Meet Israel’s F-35I Adir (An F-35 Like No Other)

F-35I Adir — or “Mighty Ones” — will be the only F-35 variant to enter service heavily tailored to a foreign country’s specifications.

F-35I stealth fighters had flown on two combat missions on “different fronts”.

The first nineteen stealth jets received by Israel will actually be standard F-35A land-based fighters, while the following thirty-one will be true F-35Is modified to integrate Israeli-built hardware.

Israeli F-35Is uniquely will have an overriding Israeli-built C4 program that runs “on top” of Lockheed’s operating system.

An official told Aviation Week the IAF expects the advantages of the F-35’s low radar cross section will be “good for five to ten years” before adversaries develop countermeasures.

While Tel Aviv basically wants the United States to carry out such an attack, the F-35 makes an Israeli attack on Iran more practical.

The activities of Israel’s Adirs are likely to continue to remain conspicuously in the news, if less so on hostile radars.

********

As stated in the section above regarding Israel, each version of the F-35 is most effective until adversaries develop countermeasures. That’s why finding the missing Japanese F-35 is so urgent right now.

The F-35A, F-35B, F-35C and F-35I have each been developed to serve a specific type of warfighting need. For Japan, the near adversaries would be China and North Korea. For Israel, it would be Iran and potentially even Turkey.

If the wreckage of the missing plane is under many fathoms of water, then it is a scramble to locate it, protect it from adversaries and retrieve it. China and Russia are most in a position to try to beat us to it.

But the fact that there was no distress signal before the plane went down ~ and specious claims of having found small pieces but not the classified technology ~ indicate that at this point we must consider whether the pilot defected and potentially flew an F-35A straight to China. Hopefully not. But it behooves us to know for sure. Sooner rather than later.

The People’s Republic of China is a supplier and supporter of rogue countries all the way from North Korea to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Any American technology they can steal will certainly get into the hands of both the Madman of Pyongyang and the Ayatollah in Tehran. General Soleimani of IRGC Quds Force would exploit it to counteract Israeli air supremacy.

So don’t get too caught up in the political frenzy over the Mueller report. It’s just fodder for money-hungry pundits and power-mad politicians. But if China and/or Iran can reverse engineer an American F-35, the risk of a military confrontation increases greatly. NOQ Report will continue to monitor and cover this developing story.

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Foreign Affairs

Posobiec: Maduro negotiating with Spain on Venezuela exit strategy

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Posobiec Maduro negotiating with Spain on Venezuela exit strategy

Contested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro may be exploring options to leave the country and move to the safety of Spain, according to an One America News report from Jack Posobiec. Speaking to Americans for Intelligence Reform president Brad Johnson, the two discussed a possible exit strategy that would put Maduro in Spain and leave the country in the hands of U.S.-backed leader Juan Guaidó.

The nation is in a state of complete economic and social collapse. Years of socialism has taken one of the richest countries in the western hemisphere and turned it into a nation of chaos and destitution. The writing for Venezuela has been on the wall or years, and perhaps now the failed leader is ready to take his personal riches and make a break for it.

Guaidó has a semblance of infrastructure ready to take over if Maduro should leave. He also has the backing of many nations who would be very willing to help him make the quick transition to power should Maduro cede it.

Opinion

We’ve talked many times about the failures of socialism in Venezuela and the oppression of a people who have no recourse to save themselves as a result of the sacrifices made to install socialism in the first place. For the first time, there seems to be a potential for the suffering to end in the near future as the hope predicated by a Maduro exit could translate into instant resources. The United States and other countries have attempted to send aid to the people, but the military under Maduro’s control has not let it through. Under Guaidó, the aid should start reaching the people immediately.

This is beyond the point of being a political struggle. Lives are being lost. A nation is losing its ability to sustain itself, and the longer Maduro is in power, the harder it will be for them to recover. He needs to go now, and anything short of military intervention should be explored.

Quote

“I think the recognition by the United States of Juan Guaidó is the beginning of the end for Nicolás Maduro, and I think that’s how Maduro views it himself.” – Brad Johnson

Final Thoughts

In this exclusive interview, Posobiec and Johnson discuss the possible outcomes of an exit by Maduro, one that will instantly shake the nation. But they can recover with assistance, and Guaidó will have it ready for him if he takes control.

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Foreign Affairs

The President is right to veto war powers bill. Now he needs to pull support for the war in Yemen.

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The President is right to veto war powers bill Now he needs to pull support for the war in Yemen

As seems to be the case with so many things associated with President Trump and foreign policy, he is both right and wrong about how to handle a particular military status. On one hand, he’s right to veto the bill passed by Congress that called for the U.S. to end support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen. On the other other hand, it’s time for the President himself to end our support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen.

As I Tweeted earlier:

Congress normally gives away its power to the executive branch by relying on departments and agencies far too much. This is a case where Congress is actually wrong to step in and try to interfere with the Presidential power of Commander-in-Chief. That’s not their lane. It doesn’t matter if they think the war is bad or Saudi Arabia is unworthy of our help. Both might be true, but it’s not their call. The President was right to veto it.

Of course, the war itself is none of our concern. We can and should be working through NGOs and directly to help the people who have been affected by the war. Starvation is rampant. This is another Syria, only without “easy” access to Europe for the people to flee to while their homes are being destroyed. But claims that our interests are being served militarily by being involved in a proxy war with Iran is foolish. It may be true to some extent, but not enough to justify our support.

I’m biased. I was opposed to our coziness with Saudi Arabia long before Jamal Khashoggi was murdered. For decades we’ve acted like we’re beholden to the Saudis because, unfortunately, we likely are beholden to them behind the scenes. But that doesn’t mean it’s any less disgusting. I wish I could go on television and scream like Howard Beale in Network about the corruption of our system by the Saudis, but no network would be crazy enough to put me on the air.

Nevertheless, the President’s veto was righteous.

We need to pull our support for the war, but not because Congress steps out of their lane pretending they wield the power of Commander-in-Chief. The consequences of deflating the executive’s military control are too great.

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