Conspiracy Theory
Alternative History: If FDR wasn’t reelected
Franklin Delano Roosevelt is one of the most overrated leaders in world history. What would have happened if America saw this and in 1936 voted for Alfred Landon instead? Taking office in 1933, at the height of the Great Depression, FDR oversaw the poor economy until the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941. Majority of historians would agree that the Great Depression ended because of World War.
In stricter economic terms the economy improved only to have a relapse in 1937. But it wasn’t until the war, or really after the war, did Americans see good economic times. We’re going to get into the alternative history, but first the Great Depression needs to be put in comparison to past economic crises in order to set up the event which changes the alternate timeline.
Jeffrey Hummel, professor of economics at San Jose State University, constructed this chart using methodology detailed here. In American history, recessions generally did not last more than two years. This one lasted nearly four years on paper. In this timeline, Americans realize that recessions should not last this long and change management like a sports team firing their coach after a few losing seasons. The year is 1936, and FDR loses his reelection to Republican Alfred M. Landon.
Unfortunately for America at this time Alfred Landon, would have made a mediocre, at best, president. Alfred Landon campaigned on lowering taxes and balancing the budget, but also supported numerous pieces of Roosevelt’s new deal. He was a politically successful Republican holdout from the Democrat victories in 1932 as governor of Kansas. The biggest contrast between FDR and FDR-lite candidate, Alfred Landon, would have been social security, or at least how social security was implemented. Landon vehemently opposed the Social Security Act. So in 1937, the Social Security Act is repealed shortly after taking effect.
Being a progressive would ultimately have negated the fiscal hawkish nature of Landon, as it typically does in other politicians. But the area of taxation is where we do see a difference. Being an economic novice, FDR increased government spending and wanted to pay for it by increasing taxes. He never knew about the Laffer Curve. FDR at one point fought for a 100% income tax for the highest earners, a move today’s left apparently lauds. The Foundation For Economic Education writes:
In 1935, with FDR’s push, the top marginal tax rate hit 79 percent. Few paid that rate, but thousands of Americans were in the 50-percent bracket. Entrepreneurs had to hand over more than half of any income above a certain level.
Facing disincentives to make capital investments, many entrepreneurs used their wealth cautiously—investing in tax-exempt bonds, art collections, and foreign banks. Little wealth went into creating jobs, so high unemployment persisted. During World War II FDR raised taxes further, to 94 percent on all income over $200,000.
President Landon, instead pushes for tax cuts and receives them. While spending remains elevated, government revenue increases. The economy improves, mitigating the relapse. However President Landon issues his new version of the Social Security Act, one that seems to be more of a welfare program than the more separated behemoth that is the SSA. In this timeline, it is likely that the Great Depression ends around World War 2 as well.
SCOTUS
A key factor at play is Landon’s less hostile view towards separation of powers. The Supreme Court, thanks in large part to Calvin Coolidge’s rather conservative appointees, struck down numerous chunks of the New Deal. FDR sought to pack the courts in response. After this failure, FDR finally intimidated his way into a vacancy. In fact, a floodgate of nominations opened. He nominated Senator Hugo Black, a ardent New Deal supporter and member of the Ku Klux Klan. Justice Black was a widely influential judge authoring the Korematsu v United States 1944 (6-3) decision, one where 6 of 8 justices appointed by Roosevelt voted for internment camps.
Most appointees did not outlast the 1940s. Justice William Douglas was one of two Democrats that voted for the infamous Roe v Wade decision. But Republicans are to blame for the judges who rendered that decision. But the trajectory of SCOTUS nominees is now impossible to calculate, in terms of who would have been nominated, how long they would have lasted, and the distribution of vacant seats in the future presidencies.
World War 2
Does President Landon win a second term? Most Presidents with recent exceptions such as Hoover and Roosevelt win a second term. This term, beginning in 1941, would have overseen the start of US involvement in World War 2. President Landon was more than certainly a weaker presence to have in the Oval Office in a time of war. However the United States generals would largely remain unchanged in this timeline, as America would have selected its top officers. Japan was doomed to fail due to their technological inferiority.
The Manhattan Project would have commenced, and the next President would surely have dropped the bomb, as it was the rational thing to do. Alfred Landon was more isolationist at heart. However he would have given aid to Britain while rejecting the neutrality.
Closing The Gap
Interestingly enough, this timeline closes. While Truman likely doesn’t become President, Dwight Eisenhower does. As the successful general in the European Theater, he would win due to sheer popularity and qualifications. It’s hard from Eisenhower to assert that the chain of Presidents would have been different. President Trump would be number 46, as the United States would have had a President that didn’t serve four terms. That being said, the 22nd Amendment likely wouldn’t exist.
Presidents, like Obama, would still have tried to use government intervention to fix the economy because there was no free market solutions put in place in the 1930s to show that the market would correct itself and faster if the government allowed it too. Social security would exist but the collection of funds would likely be different, much like the differences between Obamacare and Romneycare. The only severe difference from the lack of a FDR second term is the Supreme Court. Roosevelt replaced all but one judge on a court which began hostile to his New Deal. In the alternative history, he appoints zero.
The lack of clear differences between Alfred Landon and FDR make this thought exercise truly underwhelming. Essentially this exercise replaced a radical Democrat with a progressive Republican. The 1936 presidential election bares many similarities to the 2012 election. Party establishment rammed a candidate that hardly opposed the incumbent. That candidate runs a poor campaign and gets crushed accordingly. In the end, the biggest known change in this alternative history is legacy. FDR’s rating as a top President would be nonexistent. While the alternative is disappointing, it seems, at a glance, more than nominally superior than the actual course of events.
Further Reference: Alfred Landon’s Acceptance Speech at the 1936 RNC
Conspiracy Theory
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It is very compelling for many people, particularly in America, to see the collapsing freedoms and growing persecutions across the world and want to do something to protect ourselves. This makes many choose to store certain items for times that are coming (or potentially upon us already) when chaos rules. My family disagrees with this viewpoint.
Before the attacks start coming in, there are two important things to consider. First, we have a good amount of food and survival gear as well as plenty of protection within our house. It’s not a coincidence that my children’s favorite pastime is weekends at the shooting range. Second, we have nothing against those who choose to live the “prepper” lifestyle. It’s a natural reaction from certain points of view.
There was a time not too long ago when we were what some would call “amateur preppers”. We bought long-term food stores. We maintained an independent water supply. We have family members who have enough guns and ammunition to hole up in solitude indefinitely without fear.
The reason we shifted our views away from deep preparations can be broken down into three categories.
1. Tribulation is an opportunity
The prophets were persecuted. The apostles were persecuted. Reading the Bible cover to cover reveals that very few people who lived by the Word of God were able to avoid the trials of this life.
This isn’t a call for people to go looking for trouble. We aren’t suggesting that everyone needs to go give away Bibles in China or preach the Word in Iran in hopes of getting arrested and persecuted. Some are clearly called to do such things, not for the sake of the persecution they’ll receive but to make disciples of the nations. Bold actions like these aren’t for everyone.
What we are saying is that the Bible makes it very clear that those who overcome their fears and face the tribulations, trials, and persecutions that are becoming increasingly robust around the world are blessed for their diligence and faith.
Matthew 5:10 (KJV)
10 Blessed are they which are persecuted for righteousness’ sake: for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.
Romans 5:3-5 (KJV)
3 And not only so, but we glory in tribulations also: knowing that tribulation worketh patience;
4 And patience, experience; and experience, hope:
5 And hope maketh not ashamed; because the love of God is shed abroad in our hearts by the Holy Ghost which is given unto us.
James 1:2-3 (KJV)
2 My brethren, count it all joy when ye fall into divers temptations;
3 Knowing this, that the trying of your faith worketh patience.
Our first goal is to accept the gift of salvation. Our second goal is to spread the Gospel to those we can touch. Once those two things are ongoing, we should continue to keep our security and health, but not at the detriment of either of the first two goals. In fact, Yeshua spoke of the importance of keeping the faith now for the grace to come instead of trying to focus on saving our bodies in this life.
Luke 9:23-25 (KJV)
23 And he said to them all, If any man will come after me, let him deny himself, and take up his cross daily, and follow me.
24 For whosoever will save his life shall lose it: but whosoever will lose his life for my sake, the same shall save it.
25 For what is a man advantaged, if he gain the whole world, and lose himself, or be cast away?
Total faith means knowing that whatever God has in store for you, whether it’s what we consider to be positive or negative, we must see beyond the effects on this life and believe that how we handle everything can be a merit at the time of judgment.
2. The Principalities and Powers are watching
Some people get fearful chills when they read Revelation. Others get similarly scared at Daniel or Isaiah. For me, it’s Ephesians that worries me the most.
Ephesians 6:12 (KJV)
12 For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.
A look at the news on any given day will reveal two disturbing trends: the various governments and other entities of the world are tightening around us while the people are becoming more confused and looking towards sinful solutions.
The concept of having guns pried from our cold, dead hands is seeming to be more and more likely of a scenario.
Between technological advancements, emboldened governments, and desperate leads in and out of governments, it’s very unlikely that anyone can be truly safe. The only choices may end up being to die defending the farm or to face persecution. It’s definitely possible to do both, to be a prepper while still maintaining the right connection to faith, but it’s part of human nature to rely on our own works when we focus on solutions like those.
As I’ve discussed before, Christians shouldn’t prepare at an extreme level for an economic collapse. Again, we’re not suggesting that people should abandon their gold or silver. It simply can’t be a priority as it takes away from the proper focus of this life – unending love and faith in Yeshua as our Lord and Savior.
At no point would we ever recommend sitting back and watching our liberties fade into history. There are times to fight. There are times to hide. There are times to adjust. Of course, the one universal is that there is time for prayer, repentance, and service to our Lord.
3. Faith through the Armor of God is sufficient
As I’ve made abundantly clear on my other site, I do not believe in the doctrine of the pre-tribulation rapture. Those who are alive when the end times come will face tribulation whether they have guns or not.
There is a false security that is created when the works of our hands are used to solve problems as big as the tribulation from the Bible. That’s not to say that we shouldn’t act, but the real action comes from preparing our souls and putting on the whole Armor of God.
Those who prepare for catastrophe are distracted. We all are to some degree with everything that is in front of us in this world. One of our goals should be to remove or properly handle these distractions.
Being a prepper doesn’t make anyone any less of a Christian. It just makes being a good Christian harder. Of course, that could be said about pretty much everything in this world that’s not centered squarely on the Bible’s teachings.
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