For the last few weeks I’ve been pointing to several factors that gave me hope the Republican Party could retain control of the House of Representatives. To be completely transparent, I thought their chances were around 20% of actually doing it based almost completely on mainstream media’s bias against them.
Recent shifts in polls, encouraging numbers for early voter turnout, and actions by both parties prompted me to do the laborious chore of going through each individual race and objectively picking the winner based on all the data available to me. I expected the tally at the end to show a slightly lower Democratic majority than most analysts are predicting. My expectations were wrong.
By my count, Republicans will hold on to a razor-thin majority of the House of Representatives.
Most of the races were easy to call. I thoroughly analyzed the 70 or so races that will determine the fate of the House (and our nation) and rated each one based on what I truly believe the outcome will be. Many of the toss-ups I rated at leaning blue because the most recent polls showed strong Democratic numbers. In the races that I felt the Republicans had the edge, I rated them leaning red.
When the dust settled, I was pleasantly surprised.
Much of this will hinge on California where most analysts are predicting losses for Dana Rohrabacher and Mimi Walters. It’s discouraging to know the end result may hinge on Republican incumbents in light-red Orange County holding their seats, but boots on the ground seem to be favoring the Republicans. I get to see Harley Rouda pretty much non-stop which is one of the reasons analysts are leaning the race towards him, but the most recent poll shows Rohrabacher up by 9%. Sorry analysts, but that’s too much for me to be compelled to lean this race to the left.
As the race reaches its end, the signs are pointing towards a similar result we saw in 2016 when Democratic confidence and media spin were not enough to win the White House or Senate as they were all predicting straight up to election day.
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