Naysayers in mainstream media have been calling the House of Representatives for the Democrats for the past couple of weeks. The confidence level has been high for Democrats that they’ll get a majority. Nancy Pelosi practically guaranteed it last week.
But the polls the public and even most political analysts see aren’t the same polls the parties see. Their internal polling has many more resources and dollars behind them, giving the parties a much wider range of voters and the benefit of big data to guide it. This is why they often know better than the public polls about which direction the various races will fall.
We saw an example of this last election when Hillary Clinton’s campaign cancelled their fireworks show the day before the election. They knew they had a good chance of losing even if public polls and mainstream media were already anointing her.
We are seeing smaller examples of that this election as Republicans are rejuvenated in House races and Democrats are acting a little less confident.
Donald Trump Jr, an important component of the White House’s push this midterm election, isn’t going to Arizona, Texas, or Indiana to shore up votes in tight Senate races. He isn’t in South Dakota, Oklahoma, or Nevada to help Republican gubernatorial candidates bring their races home.
Trump Jr. and former Fox News host Kimberly Guillfoyle are ending their campaign stops in New York’s 22nd district. They’ll be rallying with Representative Claudia Tenney (R-NY) for a seat that’s currently listed as a toss-up on most polling websites. That tells us two important things about tomorrow’s election:
- The House of Representatives isn’t locked up for Democrats. In fact, Republican chances must be much higher than the media is reporting if a surrogate of the President is finishing his campaign tour with a Congresswoman. Optics for 2020 start now and it would behoove the President for his son and future daughter-in-law to finish on a high note by stumping for a winner.
- They are focusing on the front end instead of the back end to encourage voters by time zone. Exit polls and predictions on how east coast races are shaping up will start to trickle in before west coast polls close. That means their numbers tell them it’s a tight race and every seat will make a difference in the outcome.
Sending the big guns to rural upstate New York for Claudia Tenney’s House seat is a conspicuous signal to Republican voters. The House of Representatives isn’t lost despite what mainstream media wants you to believe. Your vote tomorrow is important.
I need @claudiatenney of #NY22 to be re-elected in order to get our big plans moving. Her opponent would be a disaster. Nobody works harder than Claudia, and she is a producer. I look forward to working together with her – she has my Strongest Endorsement! Vote Claudia!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 5, 2018