Update 3: Senator Manchin is a yes on Kavanaugh.
I will vote to support Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh. pic.twitter.com/1FfuMTOZz8
— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) October 5, 2018
Update 2: Senator Collins is a yes on Kavanaugh.
Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) spoke on the Senate floor and declared that she will be voting to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh tomorrow to be the next Associate Supreme Court Justice. She joins Senator Jeff Flake (R-AZ) as the other previously undecided Senator to declare in the affirmative.
Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) declared she will be voting against Kavanaugh earlier.
Update 1: Senator Flake is a Yes on Kavanaugh “unless something big changes”.
BREAKING: GOP Sen. Jeff Flake says he'll vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to Supreme Court `unless something big changes'
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 5, 2018
After what feels like the longest confirmation process in history, a narrow cloture vote means Brett Kavanaugh’s fate will be determined Saturday… or maybe Sunday. It all comes down to four Senators and possible a fifth Senator’s daughter’s wedding.
Republicans Jeff Flake, Lisa Murkowski, and Susan Collins are joined by Democrat Joe Manchin as holding all the cards. Senator Heidi Heitkamp was the other Democrat on the list but has declared she will vote against Kavanaugh.
Republicans need 50 votes to allow Vice President Mike Pence to break a tie. That means they need two of the four undecided Senators to vote in favor of Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Flake, Collins, and Manchin all voted for cloture. Murkowski voted against.
If those votes stick when the final vote is held, then Kavanaugh will be confirmed 50-49. If two of the yes votes switch, Kavanaugh will not be confirmed. If only one switches, then we’ll have to wait a day longer for Republican Senator Steve Daines to return to Washington DC.
At the time the vote is likely to take place Saturday, Daines will be walking his daughter down the aisle in Montana. If the Kavanaugh vote is 50-49 against, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will keep the voting open until Daines returns on Sunday.
Murkowski, the lone Republican to vote against cloture, has been a thorn in her party’s side throughout her career. The 16-year Senator from Alaska has sided with Democrats on many key issues including Obamacare and abortion rights.
Flake, who helped initiate the week-long FBI investigation following the Senate Judicial Committee hearings is not running for another term. His Senate career essentially ended following too many public clashes with President Trump that made his reelection chances nil.
Collins declared she would vote for cloture but will not announce her final vote until this afternoon. Like Murkowski, Collins has been accused of helping Democrats stall the GOP agenda.
Manchin, the only Democrat to vote for cloture, is faced with a tough reelection campaign in which he needs Trump supporters on his side. The President won every county in West Virginia and often holds rallies there. Switching to a no vote would be political suicide.
This soap opera is a day or two away from getting wrapped up. From there, we’ll have until election day next month to deal with campaign ads that focus on Kavanaugh whether he’s confirmed or not.