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What Kavanaugh’s confirmation means for midterms

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What Kavanaughs confirmation means for midterms

The FBI report is in. There may be more accusations, character witnesses, or other developments that pop up, but at this point anything that is likely able to sway Senators is out in the open. Now all that’s left is posturing for the handful of “undecided” Senators and building the election narratives.

It’s important to understand there are three sides regarding Kavanaugh. There are the obvious pro- and anti-Kavanaugh camps. The third camp is what we’ll call the what’s-in-it-for-me group. These are the six or seven Senators who will cast their vote based on which choice will help them the most and/or hurt them the least.

So what does this mean for America? We’re going to get bombarded with ads, emails, mailers, robocalls, and commentaries that will all be influenced by the outcome of the Kavanaugh confirmation. There are obviously two possible outcomes here, but for the sake of time I’ll focus on the likely scenario that he’s confirmed. If he gets blocked, I’ll put out a new post with the shifted dynamic in mind.

Here’s how it plays out from now until election day.

Democrats outraged

The lion’s share of their focus will be on women. They want to drive home the narrative that Republicans just put a sexual predator on the Supreme Court who will take away their reproductive rights and embolden the patriarchy in Washington DC. They’ll invoke President Trump’s treatment of women and paint the Republican Party as a whole as an evil entity that will do whatever it takes to keep women down.

You won’t see Bill Clinton anywhere near the campaign trail and Hillary’s presence will be limited and controlled.

The subtext will focus completely on Trump, Kavanaugh, and how the Republican candidate in the voters’ district would empower them further.

Republicans moving forward

Economy, economy, economy… sort of. Prosperity is a powerful driving force and conventional wisdom says people vote based on their bank accounts, but that’s not entirely accurate. People vote during presidential elections based on their bank accounts, but midterms are normally a referendum for or against the current president and the ruling party’s agenda.

Unfortunately for Republicans, the first midterm usually becomes a referendum against the president as opposing voters have more incentive to get off their couches and hit the polls.

They have a big hill to climb. Getting their voters riled up enough to take action is harder for them than for outraged Democrats. Their best hope is to get right-leaning independent voters excited about their candidates. To do this, they’ll need to scare them and Kavanaugh is the key.

This process has been a boost for outraged Democrats, but it has also given the GOP a narrative that drove them to victories in 2010, 2014, and 2016: fear of the crazy leftists. They need to position Democrats as unhinged and willing to do anything to gain power. They then need to drive home a warning of what could happen if they’re allowed to have that power.

Then and only then can they get back to their underlying narrative of pushing the prosperity they’ve brought to the next level. The message should be that what they’re doing is working so America cannot let the Democrats derail progress the way they nearly derailed a Supreme Court nomination.

The rest of us shaking our heads

As a conservative who is not a Republican, I have the enviable perspective of pure discontent. I can acknowledge the progress Republicans have made while still knowing they’ve done so at the cost of our future. Insane budgets and increased spending have made the nation more fiscally vulnerable even though current economic indicators are strong. The GOP has pulled a classic Democrat move by selling out or future for temporary prosperity.

The Democrats, on the other hand, are terrifying with their crazy lurch to the left. They’re completely unacceptable.

That leaves people like me in the same position we’ve been in for decades: picking between the lesser of two evils. It’s like choosing a slow death by poison trickled into the bloodstream versus instant and painful death by explosion. Do we drink the poison or swallow the grenade?

It’s unfortunate the Democrats made this election as ugly as they have. When we should be focused as a nation on expanding prosperity, they’ve chosen to distract us with confirmation parlor tricks.

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Democrats

Snopes downgrades truth about Beto’s arrests to ‘mostly true’ because a meme got his band’s name wrong

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Snopes downgrades truth about Betos arrests to mostly true because a meme got his bands name wrong

Fact checkers are all the rage in the age of fake news. Unfortunately, all of the major fact checkers are left leaning at best, downright progressive at worst. That’s why I make it part of my daily routine to check the checkers to see what they spun today. This latest installment is minor in the whole scheme of things, but it highlights the intense need to protect Democrats whenever possible.

Snopes took on the task of fact checking the following statement:

Beto O’Rourke was in a band called the El Paso Pussycats and was arrested at least twice in the 1990s.

This is true. Beto was arrested twice, which makes him an ideal candidate for the party of lawlessness and disorder. But Snopes, in their certified fact checking wisdom, decided to pick the statement about the arrests that included the name of his band. The statement they chose had the wrong name for the band, using their album name instead. This was enough for them to downgrade the statement from “True” to “Mostly True.”

Not a big deal, right? Actually, it’s bigger than one might think. When people search for Beto and look only for things that are true about him, they will not be shown information about his arrests. The site could have picked literally any other claim about the arrests to fact-check, but had to dig deep to find an internet meme from his failed Senatorial bid last year in order to find one with a statement that included something incorrect in it.

Beto ORourke Arrest

You’ll notice they made sure to mention that both charges were dismissed. The circumstances behind the dismissals seemed to do nothing to negate the crimes he actually committed.

This is just another example of the “fact-checker” running cover for a Democrat they like. The meat of the fact, Beto’s arrests, won’t be found on this site as “True” because they were selective in how they wanted to frame this narrative.

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Who is the current moneyline favorite for the Democratic nomination?

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Who is the current moneyline favorite for the Democratic nomination

An interesting metric to analyze politics is viewing the moneyline. In fact, online bookies are more accurate at predicting major elections than the partisan hack, Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight, who incorrectly guessed every tight Senate race except for the shady Arizona race. But the odd makers spend their time doing their analysis because there is money to be lost if they do poorly. So let’s take a look at one key metric and explore the reasoning as to why.

The lowest tier are the candidates so far out, that they don’t have a moneyline, even when speculated names do. This tier includes Jay Inslee, Pete Buttigieg, and Wayne Messam. Safe to assume that this metric gives these people less of a chance than candidates who have confirmed they aren’t running.

The second lowest tier are the longshots. These candidates range from John Hickenlooper through Corey Booker. These candidates are either not big faces in the Democratic spotlight or are at a serious disadvantage because they have been crowded out of their base. The same could be said about Elizabeth Warren, but she has a devoted core and the potential to make gains when the debates are in full swing.

The next tier are the vultures. Elizabeth Warren, Tulsi Gabbard, and Amy Klobachar need death to survive, metaphorically speaking. The vultures have their sights on a clear target: Joe Biden. If they can feast on his corpse, they’ll survive. But perhaps its Bernie’s corpse they should be gazing upon instead. In truth, I think Yang is more dark horse than vulture, but both appear dark on the outside.

Alas, we have our favorites. Beto O’Rourke, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Kamala Harris, our current frontrunner by this metric. These candidates have the most money, intersectionality points in the case of Harris, ability to win superdelegates as it currently stands, and name recognition. It’s obvious why, at a glance one would rank these names at the top. Under the surface, they also have the most stable base within the Democrat party. Don’t rely too much on polling which will fluctuate like the wind. Kamala Harris could win black vote in the south while the three other white male favorites vie for the northern swathes of the country. And the odds are almost a year out. They too will fluctuate, but I believe the moneyline accurately gives us a picture of our current frontrunners.

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Democrats

Even in New York, more people favor President Trump than Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

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Even in New York more people favor President Trump than Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

She’s a media darling. She’s the leader of the hyper-leftist new Democratic revolution. She’s a creation of one of the most powerful and dangerous political organizations in America. And now, she’s having trouble getting people to like her.

According to a new Sienna College poll in New York, a mere 31% of respondents view Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez favorably. Her numbers are worse than other New York politicians, including Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Senator Chuck Schumer, and Governor Andrew Cuomo. Compared to the President, her net difference numbers are better at -13 compared to -24 for the President, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that more people know and like the President with 36% viewing him favorably.

My Take

There’s no reason for her to be getting the attention she’s getting. Being a freshman Congresswoman means she has very little say in what actually happens in DC. But it’s not her status or her votes that matter. What makes her dangerous is the way she’s molding the minds of the impressionable leftists who refuse to pick up a calculator or put pen to paper about her outrageous proposals.

She’s the worst type of politician, one who works with the spotlight instead of focusing on educating people about what she’s doing on their behalf and how they can help. I remember when the biggest plea by those in Congress was for their constituents to help them convince their Senators to do the right thing. Now, it’s all about me, me, me; the narcissism of this new breed of politicians is striking.

The more the nation learns about AOC and her insane ideas, the less they’ll like her. We need this to happen. We need Americans to wake up to the truckloads of manure she’s trying to shovel our way. Socialism needs to be stopped immediately.

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