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Kavanaugh vote set for Friday

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Kavanaugh vote set for Friday

The Senate Judiciary Committee will vote Friday on whether to recommend Judge Brett Kavanaugh for Supreme Court justice. It will be less than a full day after the judge and his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, testify before the committee.

Democrats are crying foul over the swiftness of the vote, but it’s just another stall technique. Senator Jeff Flake is the only one the on the panel who acknowledges his vote will be determined after the testimonies are heard. Considering how much attention has been given to this confirmation process, it’s unrealistic to think he’ll need more than a night to sleep on it before voting.

In reality, this vote doesn’t make much of a difference. Even if Flake votes against Kavanaugh, chances are very strong the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will call for a confirmation vote by the Senate next week. He is not required to follow the recommendations of the committee.

The real question is whether or not McConnell and other Republicans can sway Senators Bob Corker, Lisa Murkowski, and Susan Collins. If he can get their votes, chances are the confirmation will end in a tie if Flake votes against Kavanaugh, leaving the decision to Vice President Mike Pence. These four Republican Senators are expected to be the only ones waiting until after the testimonies of Kavanaugh and Ford before deciding. No Democrats are expected to vote for Kavanaugh.

Secret questioner

Adding drama to an already tense situation, Republicans will utilize a female counsel to question Ford. The all-male Republican portion of the panel does not want the optics they had in 1991 during the Anita Hill testimony.

The identity of the person who will lead the questioning is known only by Senator Chuck Grassley. He says he is keeping it a secret for her own protection.

Midterm repercussions

Radio host Rush Limbaugh says if Republicans can’t get Kavanaugh confirmed, they will lose the midterm elections. President Trump echoed Limbaugh’s words in a Tweet.

As some have noted, the Supreme Court is the biggest reason conservatives were willing to vote for Donald Trump. If the GOP can’t see this through, there will be backlash from the right and gloating from the left.

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Democrats

Snopes downgrades truth about Beto’s arrests to ‘mostly true’ because a meme got his band’s name wrong

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Snopes downgrades truth about Betos arrests to mostly true because a meme got his bands name wrong

Fact checkers are all the rage in the age of fake news. Unfortunately, all of the major fact checkers are left leaning at best, downright progressive at worst. That’s why I make it part of my daily routine to check the checkers to see what they spun today. This latest installment is minor in the whole scheme of things, but it highlights the intense need to protect Democrats whenever possible.

Snopes took on the task of fact checking the following statement:

Beto O’Rourke was in a band called the El Paso Pussycats and was arrested at least twice in the 1990s.

This is true. Beto was arrested twice, which makes him an ideal candidate for the party of lawlessness and disorder. But Snopes, in their certified fact checking wisdom, decided to pick the statement about the arrests that included the name of his band. The statement they chose had the wrong name for the band, using their album name instead. This was enough for them to downgrade the statement from “True” to “Mostly True.”

Not a big deal, right? Actually, it’s bigger than one might think. When people search for Beto and look only for things that are true about him, they will not be shown information about his arrests. The site could have picked literally any other claim about the arrests to fact-check, but had to dig deep to find an internet meme from his failed Senatorial bid last year in order to find one with a statement that included something incorrect in it.

Beto ORourke Arrest

You’ll notice they made sure to mention that both charges were dismissed. The circumstances behind the dismissals seemed to do nothing to negate the crimes he actually committed.

This is just another example of the “fact-checker” running cover for a Democrat they like. The meat of the fact, Beto’s arrests, won’t be found on this site as “True” because they were selective in how they wanted to frame this narrative.

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Immigration

61% of New Yorkers say no to driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants

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61 of New Yorkers say no to driver's licenses for illegal immigrants

A good majority of New Yorkers oppose giving driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants despite being a state known for light treatment of those who come or stay in America illegally, according to a new poll by Sienna College.

My Take

It’s insane that this is a thing. I understand the need to take care of people even though they broke our laws, ignored our sovereignty, and desire to subvert our nation’s culture by forcing their own upon all of us, but letting them drive around legally when they’re not legally supposed to be here is ridiculous.

At some point, Americans are going to wake up and realize the laws that have made us so free and safe as a people have been changed to accommodate the rest of the world. When that happens, we will not longer be America.

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Democrats

Who is the current moneyline favorite for the Democratic nomination?

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Who is the current moneyline favorite for the Democratic nomination

An interesting metric to analyze politics is viewing the moneyline. In fact, online bookies are more accurate at predicting major elections than the partisan hack, Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight, who incorrectly guessed every tight Senate race except for the shady Arizona race. But the odd makers spend their time doing their analysis because there is money to be lost if they do poorly. So let’s take a look at one key metric and explore the reasoning as to why.

The lowest tier are the candidates so far out, that they don’t have a moneyline, even when speculated names do. This tier includes Jay Inslee, Pete Buttigieg, and Wayne Messam. Safe to assume that this metric gives these people less of a chance than candidates who have confirmed they aren’t running.

The second lowest tier are the longshots. These candidates range from John Hickenlooper through Corey Booker. These candidates are either not big faces in the Democratic spotlight or are at a serious disadvantage because they have been crowded out of their base. The same could be said about Elizabeth Warren, but she has a devoted core and the potential to make gains when the debates are in full swing.

The next tier are the vultures. Elizabeth Warren, Tulsi Gabbard, and Amy Klobachar need death to survive, metaphorically speaking. The vultures have their sights on a clear target: Joe Biden. If they can feast on his corpse, they’ll survive. But perhaps its Bernie’s corpse they should be gazing upon instead. In truth, I think Yang is more dark horse than vulture, but both appear dark on the outside.

Alas, we have our favorites. Beto O’Rourke, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Kamala Harris, our current frontrunner by this metric. These candidates have the most money, intersectionality points in the case of Harris, ability to win superdelegates as it currently stands, and name recognition. It’s obvious why, at a glance one would rank these names at the top. Under the surface, they also have the most stable base within the Democrat party. Don’t rely too much on polling which will fluctuate like the wind. Kamala Harris could win black vote in the south while the three other white male favorites vie for the northern swathes of the country. And the odds are almost a year out. They too will fluctuate, but I believe the moneyline accurately gives us a picture of our current frontrunners.

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