Despite John McCain and Jeff Flake, Arizona is more Conservative than the average state. It seems like in a statewide battle for the soul of the GOP, Conservatives lose unless fully united. This is the folly of the Senate race where some on the right find Joe Arpaio to be a tolerable candidate. Still while Conservatism can maintain its solid presence in Arizona’s districts, its poised to lose a promising opportunity in the Senate to the state’s next John McCain. The only problem for Martha McSally is that the Democrats are in better position to win Arizona’s red senate seat than arguably any other seat, Nevada being the other case. It’s a vacant seat and the anti-establishment crowd might snub their noses at McSally.
Best Picks: Steve Smith, Debbie Lesko, Kelli Ward
Worst Picks: Martha McSally, Joe Arpaio
Best Race: District 1
Worst Race: US Senate
Kelli Ward looks to finally claim a senate seat. After failing against John McCain with an impressive 39.6% of the vote, she had a chance in a soon to be vacant seat. It was hers for the taking until Joe Arpaio entered the race and basically split her voting base. This gives the race to Martha McSally, an obvious RINO, who will take after John McCain. Joe Arpaio took a page right out of John Kasich’s playbook. Kelli Ward invited a lot of skepticism early on, but she has proven to be the most conservative candidate. She is willing to deviate from Trump, but from the right.
In January, I had this much to write in my first impression of Martha McSally.
Another possible name is Martha McSally. Big government republicans are seeking replace Jeff Flake with McSally. McSally is no ally of Trump and resides in swing district that could have her returning to the private sector come 2019 anyway. So a Senate run may the best way to avoid losing should Democrats mount a sizable attack for her seat, which they should.
McSally wants to avoid losing her seat, so she instead is climbing the political ladder. Smart move.
Conservative Pick: Kelli Ward
District one is in a blue seat, but a blue seat that voted Trump. This invites an enticing primary challenge with some ambitious Republicans. All three seem solid. The strongest being, Steve Smith. Along with Debbie Lesko, Smith also has an impeccable record voting in the Arizona State Senate. On top of which, he also has endorsements from the Freedom Caucus, Debbie Lesko, and several local figures. No doubt, he’s the frontrunner. Other candidates include Tiffany Shedd and Wendy Rogers. All three would make a fantastic Representative. Unfortunately they couldn’t run in other states. Gonna have to go with the frontrunner.
Conservative Pick: Steve Smith
Expectations are low for replacing Martha McSally in a Hillary district. Of all the red seats in this country, this is the most likely to flip blue. Lea Marquez Peterson is the favorite among Republicans. Honestly, a Hispanic candidate distancing herself for Trump might keep the seat the seat against the pasty Democrats. Meanwhile, she is a solid upgrade from McSally in that she supports a border wall and has a heavy focus on ending human trafficking in the district.
Conservative Pick: Lea Marquez Peterson
The most serious candidate in this race appears to be Sergio Arellano. He seems to be a good voice in spreading Conservatism along the border.
Conservative Pick: Sergio Arenlano
Paul Gosar is a solid Conservative in Congress. He is unopposed.
Andy Briggs is a solid Conservative. He is unopposed.
David Schweikert is a solid Conservative. He is unopposed.
There are no Republicans running.
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This is Debbie Lesko’s seat. She just got elected this year. Too early for an adequate performance evaluation. She is opposed but remains the pick here.
Conservative Pick: Debbie Lesko
This race comes down to Steve Ferrara and Dave Giles. Ferrara is the big money candidate in this race. He initially came off as a RINO on twitter but showed some deeper, more Conservative policies on his twitter. His written stances seem like they are going in a leftist direction, but they don’t, quite the opposite. His communication might win over independents. Dave Giles ran and lost previously. He’s a solid Conservative, fiscally and socially. There are two solid candidates here. So the pick comes down to likelihood of winning.