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The best job in the world is being an election analyst. You can say whatever you want as long as you give semi-valid reasons and even if you’re wrong, it will be unexpected factors that prevented you from being correct.
We got a glimpse of this before, during, and after the 2016 presidential election when hundreds, perhaps thousands of election analysts chimed in on various media outlets. First, we heard a steady chant about why Hillary Clinton would win. Then we got to see the shocked and occasionally tearful expressions on their faces on election day. It continued after the election when these analysts were put on the air to explain what went wrong.
Now, we’re seeing it all over again, albeit at a lesser scale. In the weeks leading up to the midterm elections, we’re already seeing crazy predictions by major commentators and news outlets claiming huge victories for the Democrats. Here’s a good example from The Hill:
Worst-case scenario for House GOP is 70-seat wipeout
If that pattern holds in November, the worst-case scenario for the GOP is a truly historic wipeout of as many as 72 House seats, according to The Hill’s analysis of special election results and congressional and presidential returns from 2016.
That would mark the deepest decline for either party in a single election cycle since Harry Truman ran against the “Do Nothing Congress” in 1948.
To The Hill’s credit, they noted that this worst-case-scenario is unlikely for many reasons. Nevertheless, this is a society driven by headlines and news snippets. The point wasn’t to explain later in the article why it won’t happen. They wanted to get clicks. The easiest way to do so is with shocking headlines and bold predictions.
Is it possible that the GOP will experience this “wipeout?” Absolutely. They’ve done such a horrendous job at passing their core legislation and are now pandering to moderates and independents in a last ditch effort to finish the legislative session with some wins.
Bottom line: Anyone who claims to know what’s going to happen on election day is trying to sell you something. Until it happens, they’re all just grasping at straws.
David Limbaugh asked the right question:
Does anyone really believe this? https://t.co/REb4klA505
— David Limbaugh (@DavidLimbaugh) August 17, 2018
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Any losses for the GOP should be interpreted as a direct response to Trump’s policies, character and attitudes.
Do not blame the voters.
Do not blame the weather.
Do not blame Global Warming.
Do not blame the Media.
Do not blame the Mueller Probe.
Do not blame the Russians.
Do not blame the NeverTrump faction of the GOP.
Do not blame the Congress.
Trump has had and has attempted to monopolize the public spotlight since his inauguration. Every time discussions turn to policies, Trump pulls some stunt to put himself back into the center of the news cycles.
If 2018 results in a wipeout for the GOP, Trump is the primary one to blame – Congress comes a close second because they failed to reign in Trump’s base nature and because they failed to take action to mitigate his worst excesses.
Should the GOP “win” in November (and there is no doubt Trump and the Trumplings will CLAIM that they “won” regardless of the outcome), I would blame the Demcorats for again running unelectable candidates like they did in 2016 and the media for overplaying their liberal hands and discrediting themselves (and in so doing, giving credit to the Trumplican party).
I DO expect the NeverTrump conservatives to again sit out 2018 (possibly some even voting Democrat in an attempt to rid DC of spineless progressive Republicans) and I expect the NeverTrump percentage of the voting population to grow over that of 2016.